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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/7/23 at 3:50 pm to WestCoastAg
Posted on 8/7/23 at 3:50 pm to WestCoastAg
Interesting article from the Telegraph via Yahoo:
Targeting Russia's oil exports hits Putin in the pocket book
Targeting Russia's oil exports hits Putin in the pocket book
quote:
While all eyes are on the land war in Ukraine, the greater strategic prize for Kyiv could well be found in the war at sea – something quite remarkable for a country without a conventional navy. In two days, two major Russian ships have been hit by maritime attack drones, both operating in the vicinity of Novorossiysk, Russia’s main Black Sea oil port which exports 600,000 barrels a day. They illustrate both Russia’s vulnerability at sea and the potential opportunity to inflict severe economic damage on Moscow.
quote:
To understand the extent of this threat to Moscow, just follow the oil exports. They have become the lifeblood of Russian government revenues. The oil trade – mainly to China and India – generates the foreign currency needed to keep the rouble in equilibrium. And for all the talk of Russian pipelines, Putin is still reliant on Black Sea ports to ship a vast amount of oil abroad.
quote:
Ukraine may soon be hampered by concerns from Washington DC. The Biden administration took the lead in sanctions that kept Russia in the oil business, designed to minimise Moscow’s revenues while avoiding further energy price rises. Now the White House will be terrified by the prospect of a gas price hike in the run up to a presidential election.
2
Posted on 8/7/23 at 4:03 pm to ruff fish
quote:
According to analysts from Petagon, his fleet in 2028 will be stronger than that of the United States.
this is a doozie even for a pt troll.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 4:06 pm to ruff fish
quote:
Do you want me to believe in this primitive photoshop?
Do you want me to draw a tattoo "666" on any photo? Give a photo with a higher quality, not from propaganda videos
The image is not a photoshop going by Fotoforensics ELA analysis. There are no indicators Utkin's head or the tattoos have been added in afterwards.
https://fotoforensics.com/analysis.php?id=08aa93e56e85a3dec32208a250af0eb1b15fb3c9.20956
The image used above is the earliest example I could find via Tineye and dates from 18th April '21 from this Turkish article which refers to a telegram account as publishing it originally.
https://www.haber7.com/dunya/haber/3072991-goruntuleri-sizdi-libyada-seytanla-anlasan-hafter-koseye-sikisti
There is a possibility it may be AI generated but I don't have the means or expertise to make that analysis.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 4:06 pm to Mr Happy
Gas sanctions haven’t really hurt us because Russia is having to sell below market price to India and China.
Oil that would have gone to them has to go somewhere, and it goes to the global market.
Oil that would have gone to them has to go somewhere, and it goes to the global market.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 4:18 pm to ruff fish
Did you know that Monsanto no longer exists?
Posted on 8/7/23 at 4:29 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
Gas sanctions haven’t really hurt us because Russia is having to sell below market price to India and China.
There is a small natural gas pipeline to China with one that has been planned and agreed to back in 2005 from Eastern Siberia. There seems to finally be some movement to build it, but Western Siberia is not connected. The total LNG export capacity of Russia is less that of Cheniere in Sabine Pass. So that lost market has not been replaced. The wells are either shutin (and likely sanded up by now) or the gas is being flared.
Their dirt cheap oil sold at cost to produce is going to countries now exporting to Russia's former customer base for the value added products.
Any reports showing that Russia is making bank are seriously flawed. My guess is that several refineries are completely shutdown.
On another note, I spoke with a friend of 40 years who is EVP of an international grain and specialty foods company.
Russia, China and all of Africa have no money to buy anything. Buyers are defaulting right and left. He's shocked that China hasn't collapsed economically yet. When setting up their Bejing office and frequent travel there in the 20teens, the amount of corruption in winning bids from government tenders shocked him. He had never seen anything like it even in Africa. They always wanted 50X commission paid to offshore bank accounts. He has driven through many of the ghost cities and far more than I have ever seen reported. Dozens outside within 30 minutes outside every major city.
As for Africa, these nations with rebellions have no money. The leadership takes the cream, the milk and sometimes the cow. He always carries when visiting any of them. Even guards sell their bullets so carry useless weapons.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 4:38 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Can someone unpack this a little to explain what the big picture meaning of this?
The US is now producing shells at this level, and is working toward an 80k/month target? Does anyone know how many of these are made/earmarked for Ukrainian delivery systems and what the current spend rate is of the Ukrainians?
What was the US producing in January 2021?
Nothing available online to show what percentage may be ear-marked for Ukraine.
The rough consensus is that Ukraine is using around 90k projectiles a month, though this figure is old and likely doesn't account for increased consumption since the counter-offensive kicked off.
Most of the information I could find indicates the 80k+ a month is a 6 fold increase from 12-14k a month in the third quarter of last year.
It is interesting to note that the ramp up in production appears to have accelerated several times since initial articles back in September. Initially it was a three fold increase over 5 years, then a 6 fold increase over 5 years, and now to a 6 fold increase by next year if the Politico article is accurate. This undermines several narratives that the U.S. is not capable of ramping up military production effectively anymore.
I do remember a figure of 8k a month being floated early on in '22 when the war kicked off but couldn't find anything to verify that.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-wants-to-build-artillery-shells-as-it-supplies-ukraine-2022-9
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-usa-will-triple-the-production-of-155-mm-shells/
https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/
https://www.army-technology.com/news/us-ammunition-contract-to-supply-ukraine/
Posted on 8/7/23 at 5:08 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Oleksandr Kamyshin
The dude did good work with the railroads last year. I hope he can pull another rabbit out of the hat with ammunitions production.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 5:13 pm to ruff fish
quote:
No, it’s not at all like what you write in the media. The problem is more multifaceted than it seems at first glance. Well, firstly, under the guise of grain, a lot of weapons were imported to Ukraine. For example, the explosion of a "grain carrier" in a Turkish sweat
I haven't seen these before, can you expand on how are either of the videos show Ukraine is receiving weapons via ships used in the grain deal?
The captions from the Telegram posts themselves report that these are grain silos in Turkey taking receivership of Ukrainian grain.
Is your hypothesis that Ukraine didn't remove all the explosive material, it got mixed with the grain sent to Turkey, and despite plenty of motion at sea only blew up once in a Turkish grain elevator?
Are you aware that grain dust explosions are a serious safety hazard in handling grain due to the dust being highly combustible, to the point that the U.S. has it on their OHSA page regarding the dangers from it?
https://www.osha.gov/grain-handling
quote:
Grain dust explosions are often severe, involving loss of life and substantial property damage. Grain dust is the main source of fuel for explosions in grain handling. Grain dust is highly combustible and can burn or explode if enough becomes airborne or accumulates on a surface and finds an ignition source (such as hot bearing, overheated motor, misaligned conveyor belt, welding, cutting, and brazing). OSHA standards require that both grain dust and ignition sources must be controlled in grain elevators to prevent these often deadly explosions.
Between 1976-2011 they claim the U.S. alone suffered 503 grain dust related explosions.
https://www.osha.gov/grain-handling/explosion-chart
They still happen too, take this recent one in the U.S. last year with a very similar type of explosion to the one in your linked videos.
https://www.kplctv.com/2022/11/10/firefighters-respond-explosion-grain-elevator/
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 8/7/23 at 5:19 pm
Posted on 8/7/23 at 5:43 pm to CitizenK
quote:
There is a small natural gas pipeline to China with one that has been planned and agreed to back in 2005 from Eastern Siberia. There seems to finally be some movement to build it, but Western Siberia is not connected.
They are connected to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, though, and both places could use a cheap natural gas source. I think both used to produce plenty of gas for their own use but populations have grown and there hasn't been much exploration in the last several decades. Both countries actually had riots in the last year or two over natural gas prices - the Russians sent troops into Kazakhstan to bail out the ruler. Both countries backed away from their relationship with Russian after the Ukraine invasion (heh - they could be next). But they may be moving back more into Russia's orbit in return for cheap gas (Russia has lost most of their exports). There's talk that Uzbekistan may import Russian gas and sell some of it to China at a good profit.
One thing that's odd to see in Almaty, Kazakhstan's largest city, is natural gas pipelines above ground throughout the city, every building is piped into these pipelines. I'm sure it was something the Soviets slapped together to try to keep the people happy with what would have likely been free gas, or very cheap. I was in a plant in Romania a few years ago and there was a heat exchanger with a huge heat load that usually uses cooling water. The Soviets piped it up to heat water for the nearby town for free. Cute idea but the piping was a mess. It took us a while to figure out what was going on. The Soviets could put rednecks to shame with their construction techniques.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 5:43 pm to CitizenK
quote:
He's shocked that China hasn't collapsed economically yet.
It's coming. It's amazing how it's so ingrained into the American psyche that China is this rising superpower. They're unlikely to even exist as a unified state in the next 10-20 years, much less be the world's dominant superpower. Between their numerous debt crises, losing manufacturing jobs to North America and SE Asia, energy and food dependence, and terminal demography, they're not long for this world.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 5:47 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
Between 1976-2011 they claim the U.S. alone suffered 503 grain dust related explosions.
Westwego grain elevator explosion 1977
kaboom
Posted on 8/7/23 at 5:55 pm to beerJeep
quote:
beerJeep
Calling everyone that reports on something positive Russia did or not spewing Ukranian propaganda 24/7 a "pinko" is cringe as frick.
What's funny is most of Reddit and the lefty side of Twitter support the shite out of Ukraine and most of them admit they're socialists or communists.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 6:12 pm to Mr Happy
quote:
Westwego grain elevator explosion 1977
That one looked terrible on the list, 65 poor buggers killed and 84 injured in that one alone.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 6:14 pm to WeeWee
Posted on 8/7/23 at 6:16 pm to bucknut
quote:
cringe as frick.
2021 wants its lingo back.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 6:17 pm to bucknut
quote:
What's funny is most of Reddit and the lefty side of Twitter support the shite out of Ukraine
Most of the Right does too. It's only the weird, fringe sickos who support the country that invaded its neighbor, murdered thousands of its innocent civilians, raped hundreds of its women, and kidnapped some 19,000 of its children.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 6:20 pm to OutsideObserver
Ex father in law managed an export grain elevator. They need to be washed down due build up of grain dust. Failure to do so equals KABOOM from static electricity and dust in the air. Conveyor belts are far less susceptible than pneumatic or bucket conveying
Posted on 8/7/23 at 6:22 pm to SirWinston
quote:
You cheer this.
Can you make up your mind if you want to cheer America or not? Ffs us picking up a lot of steam restocking ourselves of artillery now when we don’t have to have it for ourselves is a good thing. Would you prefer we waited until we needed it and didn’t have it?
Posted on 8/7/23 at 6:25 pm to ruff fish
quote:
No, except for WeeWee, was a lheujq liar.
I was not a liar. You are nekul'turnaya svin'ya, rasprostranyayushchaya lozh.' You posted lies about the grain silo explosion in turkey. Spend 5 minutes and download a VPN and see your telegram claims are lies!
Reuters (an international source)
al-monitor (not a USA based or USA friendly source)
Aljazeera (which is not USA friendly at all)
That explosion was a grain dust explosion.
quote:
I also wrote him a screenshot in Russian, asked him to translate what was written there. If he really would have had friends there, he would have answered me here.
I really do have friends in Ukraine and I was physically present for the war crimes I saw Russia commit (i.e. intentionally shelling a civilian aid station with a giant red cross on the roof). I contacted my friends and they said not to bother. If anything the Russians would find the units responsible and give them a medal. If the people who I personally know and trust told me not to tell Russian authorities why should I trust an internet poster that I do not know? The incident has been reported to the International Red Cross, the UN, and the ICC.
This post was edited on 8/7/23 at 7:14 pm
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