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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/6/23 at 8:00 pm to beerJeep
Posted on 8/6/23 at 8:00 pm to beerJeep
ISW Update
ETA
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces struck two key road bridges along critical Russian grounds lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Crimea and occupied Kherson Oblast on August 6, causing Russian forces to reroute road traffic from shorter eastern routes to longer western routes.
Ukrainian strikes on bridges along critical Russian GLOCs are a part of the Ukrainian interdiction campaign focused on setting conditions for future decisive counteroffensive operations.
Russian forces conducted one of the largest missile and drone strike series on Ukraine in recent months on the night of August 5-6.
Ukrainian officials stated that Ukrainian air defenses have destroyed 3,500 aerial targets since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
International talks aimed at drafting the main principles for a future settlement to the war in Ukraine continued in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 6.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov gave an unclear and contradictory answer to a New York Times reporter who asked whether Russia seeks to conquer more Ukrainian territory beyond the four partially occupied oblasts that Russia illegally annexed in September 2022.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 6.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast August 6 and made advances in certain areas.
Russian military command finally allowed personnel of the Russian “Alga” volunteer battalion – which has been involved in the most combat intense frontlines in Donetsk Oblast since Fall 2022 – to return to Russia on leave.
Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine continue establishing institutional linkages between Russian and Ukrainian governance structures and social services in occupied Ukraine.
ETA
quote:
The New York Times reported that Peskov said, “No... We just want to control all the land we have now written into our Constitution as ours,” when asked whether Russia seeks to capture more territory in Ukraine.[28] Peskov’s seemingly straightforward answer is contradictory, vague, and does not answer the reporter’s original question. Russian forces do not fully occupy the four oblasts — Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts — that the Russian government formally claims. Russian forces would have to conduct significant offensive operations to capture over 16,000 square kilometers of land in these four oblasts to bring de facto Russian-occupied territory in line with the Russian constitution as Peskov described. Russia also occupies territory in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and in Mykolaiv Oblast (the Kinburn Spit) — territory that the Kremlin has not formally annexed. Peskov’s statement implies that Russian forces should relinquish their territory in Kharkiv and Mykolaiv oblasts, but the Russian government has made no indication that it plans to do so and, in fact, is continuing offensive operations to gain more territory in Kharkiv. The Kremlin likely seeks to continue significant military operations against Ukraine to – at a minimum – capture the remaining parts of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts that Russian forces do not yet occupy. The Kremlin has articulated further maximalist objectives in Ukraine beyond that, including changing the Ukrainian government and constitution.[29]
Peskov also strangely stated that Russia’s presidential election is “not really democracy” but rather a “costly bureaucracy” and that Russian President Vladimir Putin “will be re-elected next year with more than 90 percent of the vote,” but walked back on this statement the same day it was publicized.
This post was edited on 8/6/23 at 8:17 pm
0
Posted on 8/6/23 at 8:08 pm to WeeWee
quote:
But the all knowing experts on the PT board and RFK Jr told us that it was Ukraine that was preventing peace talks. Are those wise people not as wise as they thing they are?
Was Russia even invited to attend the talks?
Posted on 8/6/23 at 8:11 pm to DMAN1968
Go away, war news now.
Posted on 8/6/23 at 8:17 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
Go away, war news now.
Is it not a legitimate question in response to WeeWee's post?
Posted on 8/6/23 at 8:26 pm to DMAN1968
Go to the political board to argue with Wewe
Posted on 8/6/23 at 8:33 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
DMAN1968
quote:
Zelenskyy said he hoped the initiative will lead to a “peace summit” of world leaders this autumn to endorse the principles, which he believed should be based on Kyiv’s 10-point formula for a settlement.
Ukraine’s formula includes respect for its territorial integrity and the withdrawal of Russian troops from territories that Moscow claims to have annexed.
The forum excludes Russia, which has rejected Ukraine’s peace formula. The Kremlin said it will “keep an eye” on the meeting.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier this week that Russia would “need to understand what goals are set and what will be discussed”.
“Any attempt to promote a peaceful settlement deserves a positive evaluation,” he said.
LINK
quote:
SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Saudi Arabia is hosting a conference this weekend to talk about peace in Ukraine, but Russia wasn't invited. Instead, this is a meeting to give Ukraine a chance to try to get more international support for its ideas on how the war ought to end. We're joined now by NPR's diplomatic correspondent Michele Kelemen. Michele, thanks so much for being with us.
MICHELE KELEMEN, BYLINE: Nice to be here, Scott.
SIMON: How do you have a peace conference without the country that's waging the war?
KELEMEN: Yeah, I mean, you can't quite call this a peace conference. The two sides are really far apart from any talks. But what the Ukrainians want is more support from countries that have been on the fence up to now. They have this 10-point peace plan that would ensure that Russian forces get out of their country. It calls for the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity, and it calls for accountability for Russia's aggression. And a former U.S. ambassador, William Taylor, puts it this way.
WILLIAM TAYLOR: So the Ukrainians want to make the case that they are in the right - they're on the right side of the principles, the international principles, the moral principles - and that they, the Ukrainians, deserve the support of the Indias and the Brazils and the South Africas.
KELEMEN: And the Chinese, by the way. China announced that its special representative on Eurasian affairs is going to attend this meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. And Taylor says that's really a big deal because China is an ally of the Russians, and this meeting is about Ukraine's proposals for peace and not Russia's perspective.
LINK
quote:
An EU source said China “participated actively and was positive about idea of a third meeting at this level”.
The involvement of China is seen as a big diplomatic prize – it had been invited to the Copenhagen talks in June but did not attend.
The official said there was agreement that working groups would be set up to develop details of key themes prominent in Zelenskiy’s 10-point peace formula while a parallel ambassadors group would continue technical work on the issues.
Working groups would investigate solutions in relation to global food security, nuclear safety, environmental security, humanitarian aid, the release of prisoners of war and kidnapped children that would then “feed into future work of this group at national security adviser level”, the source said.
In parallel a separate ambassadors group in Kyiv would continue technical work.
The talks are designed to find a viable basis for a meeting of heads of state, with sources saying a date was “still a bit up in the air but before the end of the year was considered plausible”.
Saudi Arabia has touted its ties to both sides in the war and positioned itself as a possible mediator.
Being a peace broker also presents Riyadh with a chance to repair strained relations with its allies, especially the US in view of the war in Yemen and the 2018 murder of the Saudi dissident and journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
The talks showed the kingdom’s “readiness to exert its good offices to contribute to reaching a solution that will result in permanent peace”, the official Saudi Press Agency claimed.
Organisers brought together three-fifths of the Brics countries, Brazil, India and South Africa, as well as other countries in the global south such as Indonesia, Mexico, Zambia and Egypt.
LINK
Posted on 8/6/23 at 8:47 pm to StormyMcMan
Thank you.
A regular OT poster had made almost the same statement about Ukraine making the effort at peace talks but Russia not on PT...I asked the same question of him but he never responded.
jeffsdad doesn't consider it war news but I thought it was.
A regular OT poster had made almost the same statement about Ukraine making the effort at peace talks but Russia not on PT...I asked the same question of him but he never responded.
jeffsdad doesn't consider it war news but I thought it was.
Posted on 8/6/23 at 9:24 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
A regular OT poster had made almost the same statement about Ukraine making the effort at peace talks but Russia not on PT...I asked the same question of him but he never responded. jeffsdad doesn't consider it war news but I thought it was.
Your question generated a good answer and brought some light to the situation. It was a good question.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 1:10 am to OutsideObserver
quote:
Do you have information on how extensively the defensive lines are mined, especially the secondary and tertiary ones where present?
Just second hand stuff I heard while visiting my buddy while he rotated to the rear for quick rest. The Ukrainians are breaching the primary lines which they believe are the heaviest. The secondary and tertiary lines are longer and supposedly thinner. The biggest problem the Ukrainians are facing is artillery deployed mines. The Russians can plug a hole the Ukrainians have cleared or reinforce an area that the Ukrainians look to be heading for with artillery deployed mines and cause the Ukrainians to have to reclear an area that they just cleared. Cluster munitions to take out artillery and missiles to destroy or damage the Russian resupply routes are for winning the battles going on right now and having a breakthrough before the mud season. Which is why I think GOPTiger and those like him focussing on the Kerch bridge are misguided.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 1:36 am to NOLATiger163
quote:
Does the SCALP / Storm Shadow have a powerful enough warhead to pose much danger to a major warship in port? I'm seeing 450 kg / 992 lb, which sounds pretty good, but I wonder whether it could effectively destroy or long-term disable a Russian navy combat ship of significant size (e.g. those corvettes). Info? Thoughts?
That’s roughly 3 times the size of the warhead on the neptune anti-ship missile and twice that of the USN’s harpoon ASM. 2 neptunes did a fair amount of damage last year.
The newer Russian ships have their weapons inside the ship so they might survive, but if a Scalp or Sea Shadow hits a Russian ship it is going to sink or be out of action for a long time.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 1:40 am to DMAN1968
quote:
Was Russia even invited to attend the talks?
Yes. Russia was invited but Russia chose not to attend. Russia is still requesting Ukraine surrender before it enters peace talks.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 1:44 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Well, all those locations will be within GLSDB range, once those arrive. I posted about that recently. One of the bigger unknowns is whether Ukraine gets those next month or in three months. But when GLSDB arrives, all the above targets can be hit with it, and the Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles can be saved for hunting strategic targets in southern Crimea.
Until the GLSDBs arrive then the scalp/storm shadows should be used to make it has hard as possible to resupply Russian forces on the front. Every train delayed by bridge repairs is time Ukraine has to clear a path for breakthrough before Russia can reinforce it.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 3:04 am to WeeWee
quote:
Just second hand stuff I heard while visiting my buddy while he rotated to the rear for quick rest. The Ukrainians are breaching the primary lines which they believe are the heaviest. The secondary and tertiary lines are longer and supposedly thinner. The biggest problem the Ukrainians are facing is artillery deployed mines. The Russians can plug a hole the Ukrainians have cleared or reinforce an area that the Ukrainians look to be heading for with artillery deployed mines and cause the Ukrainians to have to reclear an area that they just cleared. Cluster munitions to take out artillery and missiles to destroy or damage the Russian resupply routes are for winning the battles going on right now and having a breakthrough before the mud season. Which is why I think GOPTiger and those like him focussing on the Kerch bridge are misguided
Cheers for the info.
Artillery deployed mines are definitely a significant issue from what I have managed to glean. The rapid ability to remine areas remotely is making it very difficult for Ukraine to gain momentum and causing them to suffer from artillery and drone strikes far more readily due to being bottle necked.
It will also complicate breakthroughs if Russia can quickly mine between the defensive lines if Ukraine isn't able to move quickly enough in the event they make one.
I do see the optical/morale advantages of hitting big ticket items such as the Kerch bridge but having followed the development Ukraine is doing with USV's I think they are the more viable form of targeting it - Ukraine can produce these inhouse so aren't restricted so much by supply.
Leaving the various precision long range missiles Ukraine has or is getting to hit command, supply, and logistic targets that are closer to the front lines is definitely their best use given the limited numbers available.
From the small amount of strikes seen on bridges by them thus far they don't seem to be effective enough to warrant repeated strikes, at least if the bridge isn't part of the immediate supply network at the front.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 3:13 am to WeeWee
quote:
Does the SCALP / Storm Shadow have a powerful enough warhead to pose much danger to a major warship in port? I'm seeing 450 kg / 992 lb, which sounds pretty good, but I wonder whether it could effectively destroy or long-term disable a Russian navy combat ship of significant size (e.g. those corvettes). Info? Thoughts?
quote:
That’s roughly 3 times the size of the warhead on the neptune anti-ship missile and twice that of the USN’s harpoon ASM. 2 neptunes did a fair amount of damage last year.
It's also reportedly more than the USV that hit the Ropucha-class landing ship last week which suffered significant damage and was lucky to get back to port.
Given that the USV's are only single stage detonations (at least as far as I have been able to ascertain) with far less velocity, a Storm Shadow/Scalp should be far more likely to inflict catastrophic damage on a naval vessel.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 3:33 am to WeeWee
quote:
Yes. Russia was invited but Russia chose not to attend.
quote:
Saudi Arabia is hosting a conference this weekend to talk about peace in Ukraine, but Russia wasn't invited.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 3:41 am to DMAN1968
DMAN,
It doesn't matter, China, India and Russia's kinda sorta allies are all calling for return to original borders and Russia to pay reparations. This is nothing new.
China is not happy with Russia and put on its social media how Russia is barbaric for its treatment of Chinese citizens at the border. The allies are happy to make money off of Russia's woes, either with sales to Russia or purchase of oil at a steep discount and undercutting Russia more profitable cash cow, sales of refined products to former Russian customers.
It doesn't matter, China, India and Russia's kinda sorta allies are all calling for return to original borders and Russia to pay reparations. This is nothing new.
China is not happy with Russia and put on its social media how Russia is barbaric for its treatment of Chinese citizens at the border. The allies are happy to make money off of Russia's woes, either with sales to Russia or purchase of oil at a steep discount and undercutting Russia more profitable cash cow, sales of refined products to former Russian customers.
Posted on 8/7/23 at 4:51 am to CitizenK
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 07 August 2023
The Russian Air Force continues to consistently deploy considerable resources in support of land operations in Ukraine, but without decisive operational effect.
Over the summer, Russian tactical combat aircraft have typically carried out over 100 sorties a day, but these are almost always restricted to operating over Russian-controlled territory due to the threat from Ukrainian air defences. Russia has attempted to overcome this issue by increasingly using basic free-fall bombs with range-extending glide attachments. Aircraft can release these many kilometres from their targets, but they have yet to demonstrate consistent accuracy.
At the start of Ukraine's southern counter-offensive from June 2023, Russian attack helicopters proved effective. However, in recent weeks Russia appears to have been less able to generate effective tactical airpower in the south.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 07 August 2023
The Russian Air Force continues to consistently deploy considerable resources in support of land operations in Ukraine, but without decisive operational effect.
Over the summer, Russian tactical combat aircraft have typically carried out over 100 sorties a day, but these are almost always restricted to operating over Russian-controlled territory due to the threat from Ukrainian air defences. Russia has attempted to overcome this issue by increasingly using basic free-fall bombs with range-extending glide attachments. Aircraft can release these many kilometres from their targets, but they have yet to demonstrate consistent accuracy.
At the start of Ukraine's southern counter-offensive from June 2023, Russian attack helicopters proved effective. However, in recent weeks Russia appears to have been less able to generate effective tactical airpower in the south.
This post was edited on 8/7/23 at 4:52 am
Posted on 8/7/23 at 6:37 am to beerJeep
quote:quote:That’s roughly how much the surface drones carry iirc
I'm seeing 450 kg / 992 lb, which sounds pretty good, but I wonder whether it could effectively destroy or long-term disable a Russian navy combat ship of significant size (e.g. those corvettes). Info?
Downvoted for being right?
quote:
A Ukraine Security Service source told CNN the hit on the Russian oil tanker, the SIG, was carried out in a joint operation with the Navy and that it involved a sea drone with 450kg of TNT.2 days ago
Posted on 8/7/23 at 6:59 am to cypher
quote:
??The largest European companies lost at least 100 billion euros in the russian federation after its invasion of Ukraine, writes the Financial Times.
It is reported that more than 50% of the 1,871 European enterprises in russia continue to operate even after the war.
"Even if the company lost a lot of money by leaving russia, those who stay risk losing much more. It turns out that the "cut and run" strategy was the best strategy for companies deciding what to do at the start of a war. The sooner you leave, the smaller your losses," -says Nabi Abdullayev, a partner at Control Risks strategic consulting.
LINK
quote:
?? Special appointees of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine conduct successful operations on the left bank of the Kherson region, - the press service of the Main Directorate of Intelligence.
Fighters of the special purpose unit of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the "Shaman" battalion, are advancing deep into the occupied territories and continue to inflict losses on the enemy. Thanks to their actions, one of the units of russian "special purpose missile forces" was destroyed.
LINK
quote:
Putin may visit #Turkey at the end of August, the Hurriyet newspaper reported.
According to the publication, the main topic of the talks will be the "grain deal".
LINK
Posted on 8/7/23 at 8:47 am to StormyMcMan
@NOELreports:
quote:
AFU has reportedly entered Urozhaine and managed to grab a foothold.
For now, it seems like this is focussed on the northern part where Russian units were dislodged, Oleg Petrenko reports.
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