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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/10/23 at 9:02 pm to MoarKilometers
Posted on 7/10/23 at 9:02 pm to MoarKilometers
Funny how you link it to a place it should be.
Posted on 7/10/23 at 9:10 pm to dkreller
No one's stopping you from starting any thread on the Poliboard about Ukraine.
Chicken thinks that a discussion about war belongs here. Most of us here agree.
We like being able to occasionally talk about military strategy and tactics without randos jumping in every third post to derail the thread by talking about Hunter Biden.
Chicken thinks that a discussion about war belongs here. Most of us here agree.
We like being able to occasionally talk about military strategy and tactics without randos jumping in every third post to derail the thread by talking about Hunter Biden.
Posted on 7/10/23 at 9:32 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Chicken thinks that a discussion about war belongs here. Most of us here agree.
And posters generally keeping the discussion of an event that has been going on for almost 18 months in a single thread has avoided the potential for multiple daily threads spamming up the board. That way folks not interested in war news don’t have to see it.
It’s a good system and, as wild as it seems, it has worked as folks have generally kept focus for the common benefit.
Posted on 7/10/23 at 9:33 pm to dkreller
Why? It’s an active thread about an active war. Where is your message board, we will start a thread on it so you can anchor it.
Posted on 7/11/23 at 4:26 am to Chromdome35
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 11 July 2023
Moscow's municipal authorities are highly likely threatening to withdraw contracts from construction firms if they fail to hit quotas for providing 'volunteers' to serve in Ukraine. One company has reportedly been set a target of 30 volunteers by the end of August 2023.
The move will likely primarily affect ethnic minorities from poorer regions of Russia such as Dagestan and central Asian states, who make up the majority of Moscow's construction workers.
This measure is highly likely at least tacitly endorsed by Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin. It continues his track record of trying to minimise the impact of the conflict on better-off Muscovites, while still being seen to support the war effort.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 11 July 2023
Moscow's municipal authorities are highly likely threatening to withdraw contracts from construction firms if they fail to hit quotas for providing 'volunteers' to serve in Ukraine. One company has reportedly been set a target of 30 volunteers by the end of August 2023.
The move will likely primarily affect ethnic minorities from poorer regions of Russia such as Dagestan and central Asian states, who make up the majority of Moscow's construction workers.
This measure is highly likely at least tacitly endorsed by Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin. It continues his track record of trying to minimise the impact of the conflict on better-off Muscovites, while still being seen to support the war effort.
Posted on 7/11/23 at 5:41 am to cypher
It has been an interesting day or so in terms of off stage announcements regarding the war.
France has officially announced they will supply SCALP-EG missiles to Ukraine at the NATO summit, Peskov isn't happy.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1678706589929295872 - Videos
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/07/11/france-to-send-scalp-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine_6049285_4.html
Ukraine has reportedly continued to hit Russian ammo dumps deep behind enemy lines, this time in Kherson. However the footage is fairly low quality and not yet geolocated.
https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1678679856006172678 - Video
On the flip side from Russian sources:
There are claims a large Ukrainian dump was hit in Odessa though without any footage at this time. This appears to be either sea launched or drones attacks if true as there has not been any significant air launched strikes for several weeks (June 15th was the last major one I think?)
https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1678583258219692032
Also claims of a new failed Ukrainian armoured push towards Robotyne, while there are pictures to support it they are heavily chopped up from a variety of angles - the original video is likely to give a better idea of geolocation and what was actually lost.
https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1678656766819614720
Edit: Fixed quote
France has officially announced they will supply SCALP-EG missiles to Ukraine at the NATO summit, Peskov isn't happy.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1678706589929295872 - Videos
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/07/11/france-to-send-scalp-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine_6049285_4.html
quote:
France will provide Ukraine with Scalp long-range cruise missiles to help Kyiv's forces strike targets deep behind Russian lines, President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday, July 11.
Arriving at a NATO summit focused on Kyiv's battle against Moscow's invasion, Macron said the new missile delivery was designed to allow Ukraine to strike at Russian occupation forces "in depth" during its counteroffensive to liberate its territory.
Ukraine has reportedly continued to hit Russian ammo dumps deep behind enemy lines, this time in Kherson. However the footage is fairly low quality and not yet geolocated.
https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1678679856006172678 - Video
quote:
Mr. Storm Shadow came for a visit in Novooleksiivka [ocucpied Kherson]
A Russian ammo depot is cooking off like its 2022
This is the fourth large Russian ammo depot destroyed in three weeks
On the flip side from Russian sources:
There are claims a large Ukrainian dump was hit in Odessa though without any footage at this time. This appears to be either sea launched or drones attacks if true as there has not been any significant air launched strikes for several weeks (June 15th was the last major one I think?)
https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1678583258219692032
quote:
Russia’s pulling another all-night pummeling of Ukraine on the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius. Huge ammo dump in Odessa got hit, and another wave is inbound on Kiev.
Also claims of a new failed Ukrainian armoured push towards Robotyne, while there are pictures to support it they are heavily chopped up from a variety of angles - the original video is likely to give a better idea of geolocation and what was actually lost.
https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1678656766819614720
quote:
In the area of ??the village of Rabotino, Zaporozhye Oblast, another column of Ukrainian heavy vehicles was defeated.
Among the vehicles destroyed were Bradley BMPs, Leopard tanks and AFVs.
Edit: Fixed quote
This post was edited on 7/11/23 at 5:43 am
Posted on 7/11/23 at 5:56 am to OutsideObserver
Posting this separate as it is a further adaption of drone's role in the war. Though fairly rudimentary at this stage as it appears to require line of sight to be effective, there is significant potential here for applied technology.
An evolution beyond this of drones with appropriate sensors and automating software to locate and/or neutralise mines would vastly reduce the danger to engineers, equipment and civilians.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1678616671559327744 - Video
Edit: Clarity
An evolution beyond this of drones with appropriate sensors and automating software to locate and/or neutralise mines would vastly reduce the danger to engineers, equipment and civilians.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1678616671559327744 - Video
quote:
More Ukrainian drone-based landmine removal, as seen here, a Ukrainian Mavic 3 drops a grenade on a row of TM-62 anti-vehicle mines.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 7/11/23 at 6:51 am
Posted on 7/11/23 at 6:36 am to OutsideObserver
11 July 2023, Tuesday, 11:40 8
Ukraine's Air Defense shoots down 26 out of 28 enemy Shaheds
Overnight into July 11, the Air Defense Forces destroyed 26 out of 28 Shahed-136/131 attack UAVs launched by the enemy. In addition, the enemy lost another helicopter last day.
This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
So, on the night of July 11, the Russian invaders attacked Ukraine from the south-eastern direction (Primorsko-Akhtarsk) with Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 attack drones.
"A total of 28 kamikaze drones were involved in the strike. As a result of successful combat work in the area of responsibility of the South and Center Air Commands, the forces and means of the Air Force, in cooperation with the air defense of other components of the Defense Forces, destroyed 26 attack UAVs and one Zala reconnaissance drone," the report says.
Ukrainian News Agency
Ukraine's Air Defense shoots down 26 out of 28 enemy Shaheds
Overnight into July 11, the Air Defense Forces destroyed 26 out of 28 Shahed-136/131 attack UAVs launched by the enemy. In addition, the enemy lost another helicopter last day.
This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
So, on the night of July 11, the Russian invaders attacked Ukraine from the south-eastern direction (Primorsko-Akhtarsk) with Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 attack drones.
"A total of 28 kamikaze drones were involved in the strike. As a result of successful combat work in the area of responsibility of the South and Center Air Commands, the forces and means of the Air Force, in cooperation with the air defense of other components of the Defense Forces, destroyed 26 attack UAVs and one Zala reconnaissance drone," the report says.
Ukrainian News Agency
Posted on 7/11/23 at 7:31 am to cypher
LINK
No country is coming to the NATO summit empty-handed. Every country wants to send a clear signal to Russia that they will lose.
EDIT: related, from Reuters:
quote:
According to information from @derspiegel, the new arms package from Germany to Ukraine will contain:
— Multiple Patriot launchers
— Patriot ammunition
— Marder IFVs
— Leopard 1 MBTs
— Mine clearing equipment
— ~ 20,000 rounds of MBT + Artillery ammunition
— Drones
No country is coming to the NATO summit empty-handed. Every country wants to send a clear signal to Russia that they will lose.
EDIT: related, from Reuters:
quote:
COPENHAGEN, July 11 (Reuters) - Norway will increase its military support to Ukraine by 2.5 billion crowns ($239 million) this year to 10 billion, the Nordic country’s government said on Tuesday.
It said in a statement it would also increase its contribution to NATO’s support fund for Ukraine.
This post was edited on 7/11/23 at 7:42 am
Posted on 7/11/23 at 7:35 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Multiple Patriot launchers
Can the tracking and fire control systems that are separate from the launchers communicate with more launchers than are usually in a battery?
If not, wouldn't it be kind of pointless to send launchers and not the controls needed to operate them?
This post was edited on 7/11/23 at 7:36 am
Posted on 7/11/23 at 7:38 am to OutsideObserver
quote:
France has officially announced they will supply SCALP-EG missiles to Ukraine at the NATO summit, Peskov isn't happy.
What happened with Storm Shadow was that the UK simply took the mounts off of old Tornados and Ukraine welded/bolted those mounts onto the SU-24s.
SCALP is the same as Storm Shadow on the inside, but it has different mounts, so some engineer had to solve that challenge all over again.
Posted on 7/11/23 at 7:59 am to GOP_Tiger
My first thought about France sending SCALP is that it really increases pressure on Biden to send ATACMS. The UK is no longer alone in sending long-range weapons.
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:18 am to OutsideObserver
quote:'Strava elevation change: minus 6 feet.'
The [former commander of the Black Sea Fleet sub] 'Krasnodar' that was fatally shot in Russia while on a run would routinely post his route on the Strava workout app. This one from recently was liked by Kyrylo Budanov: you literally can’t make this shite up
Have to wonder what Captain Anatoliy Varochkin is thinking right now. He's the commander of the Black Sea submarine fleet, who gave the order to strike Vinnytsia from the submarine he commanded. He killed 24 Ukrainians, 3 of them children.
What was that noise meat? Just another empty vodka bottle...? Better go check.
.
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:22 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
SCALP is the same as Storm Shadow on the inside, but it has different mounts, so some engineer had to solve that challenge all over again.
I assumed that some feasibility assessment has been done. It seems that feasibility and near term utility are prime considerations for all arms transfers in this conflict.
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:27 am to Athanatos
There are now both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirming the death of Russian Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov in a Storm Shadow strike in Berdyansk.
EDIT: For our casuals, this is not the same guy as the Russian submarine commander shot dead while running two days ago.
EDIT: For our casuals, this is not the same guy as the Russian submarine commander shot dead while running two days ago.
This post was edited on 7/11/23 at 8:28 am
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:55 am to GOP_Tiger
Anti-Americans on both the far Left and the far Right say that NATO is simply a US instrument to project our desire for world domination.
And yet Biden is practically alone in NATO in refusing to promise Ukraine admittance into NATO as soon as the war is over.
Why is that?
WSJ:
Biden’s Reluctance to Let Ukraine Join NATO Tests Alliance’s Unity
It's so weird to see Biden standing with our Poliboard friends: Ukraine needs more "democritization" (translation = continuing to eliminate corruption). Putting Ukraine into the alliance immediately after the war is over could risk WWIII. Etc.
I'm sure that most of our Poliboard friends are supporting Biden for re-election, as they agree with him so much on things like not providing ATACMS and insisting that Ukraine is not ready to join NATO.
EDIT: or maybe our Politard friends don't support Biden because they really support radical Lefist Cornel West in his independent presidential candidacy: LINK
And yet Biden is practically alone in NATO in refusing to promise Ukraine admittance into NATO as soon as the war is over.
Why is that?
WSJ:
Biden’s Reluctance to Let Ukraine Join NATO Tests Alliance’s Unity
quote:
VILNIUS, Lithuania—President Biden has spent much of the past year rallying the world behind Ukraine, funneling billions of dollars in aid to the war-torn country and strengthening ties with leader Volodymyr Zelensky.
But for Biden, Kyiv’s campaign for rapid entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is a bridge too far.
The American president has emerged as the leading opponent to granting Ukraine speedy membership to the alliance, putting him at odds with several key U.S. allies. The unresolved question about Ukraine’s place in NATO will put to the test the Western world’s unprecedented unity in the face of Russia’s assault.
quote:
But Biden’s outspoken concerns with Ukraine’s push to join NATO—he has raised the prospect that doing it too early could start World War III—have frustrated officials in Kyiv and elsewhere.
“I don’t think it’s ready for membership in NATO,” Biden said in an interview with CNN that aired on Sunday, warning that bringing Ukraine into the alliance while it is at war with Russia would draw the U.S. and Europe into the conflict. He said NATO should lay out a path for Ukraine’s eventual entry into the alliance, but he said Kyiv still has work to do to meet the alliance’s standards for membership in areas like democratization.
In drawing a line on the issue, Biden is breaking with several NATO members, including central European nations that have publicly backed Kyiv’s push for expedited membership. The president has embraced the so-called Israel model, in which the U.S. would provide security assistance to Ukraine without a guarantee that it will use military force to defend the country.
quote:
“The Biden administration is notably isolated in the alliance in its resistance to giving Ukraine membership,” said Ian Brzezinski,
quote:
The Biden administration has been working with allies to provide Ukraine with security assurances, according to U.S. and European officials, a promise that is both welcomed by Kyiv and falls short of its desire for guarantees that pave the way toward NATO membership.
NATO countries are also searching for a compromise that signals their intent to welcome Ukraine into the alliance without offering a firm timeline.
Members of the alliance are set to waive a requirement that Kyiv complete a bureaucratic membership plan that could have delayed the country’s accession to the group for years, according to U.S. and European officials.
But the move, which will be included in the NATO communiqué to be released at the close of the alliance’s summit in Lithuania, doesn’t mean Ukraine will join the group immediately. The country will still need to meet NATO’s standards for membership, including on democratic reforms, officials said.
It's so weird to see Biden standing with our Poliboard friends: Ukraine needs more "democritization" (translation = continuing to eliminate corruption). Putting Ukraine into the alliance immediately after the war is over could risk WWIII. Etc.
I'm sure that most of our Poliboard friends are supporting Biden for re-election, as they agree with him so much on things like not providing ATACMS and insisting that Ukraine is not ready to join NATO.
EDIT: or maybe our Politard friends don't support Biden because they really support radical Lefist Cornel West in his independent presidential candidacy: LINK
quote:
Let us not be deceived: NATO is an expanding instrument of U.S. global power that provoked Russia into a criminal invasion and occupation of Ukraine. This proxy war between the American Empire and the Russian Federation could lead to World War III. We must stop the war and war crimes (including cluster bombs used by all parties) and embark on diplomatic talks that should lead to a just peace. As the great W. E. B. Du Bois wrote in 1945 "I seem to see outlined a third World War based on the suppression of Asia and the strangling of Russia." The Democratic Party is a party of war and Wall Street targeting Russia and China. Let us save our democracy and world by dismantling U.S. militarism at home (as in Cop Cities) and abroad - as Martin Luther King Jr. painfully reminded us!
This post was edited on 7/11/23 at 10:16 am
Posted on 7/11/23 at 10:04 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
There are now both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirming the death of Russian Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov in a Storm Shadow strike in Berdyansk.
Hmm. I did not realize this, from WSJ reporter Yaroslav Trofimov:
quote:
The highest-ranking Russian fatality in Ukraine since the invasion began, he was deputy commander of Southern Mil District
Posted on 7/11/23 at 10:11 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
"The first missiles were delivered at the same time as our president announced," French military source said.
"The number delivered to Ukraine is quite significant but it will preserve French stocks very well above the capacities we [the French] need."
LINK
Related: there are more reports just now of explosions in Berdyansk.
Posted on 7/11/23 at 10:20 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
There are now both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirming the death of Russian Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov in a Storm Shadow strike in Berdyansk.
Interesting information on this guy from Wikipedia. His background is more of a high level Ukrainian politician than as a military officer, and one that Ukraine is very happy to have killed.
quote:
On 26 July 2014, he became the speaker of the Parliament of Novorossiya, a confederation that includes the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, and served until its dissolution on 18 May 2015. He has been wanted by Ukrainian police since June 2014 for promoting separatism and violence.
On 24 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was conducting a "special military operation in Donbas"; this announcement was followed by a large scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.[25] The United States intelligence community named Tsaryov as a possible Kremlin supported choice to lead a pro-Russian puppet Ukrainian government.[26][27][a] On the (first) morning of the invasion Tsaryov declared "as promised, the denazification operation has begun."[29] He also claimed he was "already in Ukraine" and that "Kyiv will be liberated from the Nazis."[29]
On 20 March 2022, Tsaryov called on the acting mayor of Kryvyi Rih, Oleksandr Vilkul (while claiming "his" Russian troops "are now near Kryvyi Rih") to surrender the city to Russian troops.[30] Tsaryov addressed Vikul as "used to be my fellow party members" and claimed that Vikul had "always taken a pro-Russian stance".[30] On Facebook Vikul answered Tsaryov: "frick you, traitor, along with your masters!".[30]
Posted on 7/11/23 at 10:28 am to Tigris
Reznikov:
quote:
It’s official: a coalition for F-16 training of the Ukrainian Air Force has been formed!
Today, 11 partner states + Ukraine signed a Memorandum outlining the terms. I'm especially grateful to Denmark and the Netherlands for their outstanding leadership in this process.
- Ukrainian pilots, technicians, and support staff will participate in a training program;
- There is the possibility of including other types of fighter aircraft in the program;
- The coalition is ready to consider other means of granting Ukraine fully functional F-16 capabilities.
This post was edited on 7/11/23 at 10:29 am
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