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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/27/23 at 5:05 pm to SirWinston
Posted on 6/27/23 at 5:05 pm to SirWinston
Are you friends with ArmchairWarlord? You both seem to have a thing for overly dramatised cartoon images.
0
Posted on 6/27/23 at 5:15 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Rybar thinks that Ukraine is gearing up for a major operation across the Dnipro in the Kherson region.
Given how hard Ukraine is working to stay in the area they may be on to something- it could also be a diversion/test run to see if they are capable of doing it in other areas.
These particular parts of the Rybar claim are worth noting as we haven't seen Ukraine reportedly do much of this near the frontlines yet.
quote:
The Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems to Sadovoye and Pravdino to hunt for Russian combat aircraft. This complicated the work of front-line aviation on targets in this area.
quote:
Their search, detection and defeat by Lancet drones and FPV drones is also complicated: when approaching the contact area, the operators lose the signal. This may be due to the activities of electronic warfare units.
I do wonder at the feasibility of an actual push over the Antonovsky bridge as there is only really one path out till they can get to Oleshky and before that they have to cross another bridge over the Konka river which I am sure the Russians would blow in the even a serious attempt is made.
Posted on 6/27/23 at 5:21 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Rybar thinks that Ukraine is gearing up for a major operation across the Dnipro in the Kherson region.
Any Ukraine success on the battlefield in the immediate aftermath of the prigohzin affair will have profound impacts on Russian internal affairs.
If Ukraine has any ability to do, now is the time for a bold move to really re-color the map.
Posted on 6/27/23 at 5:43 pm to jfan244888
I sure would like to know how many and whereabouts of remaining EW helps.
Posted on 6/27/23 at 5:48 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
I do wonder at the feasibility of an actual push over the Antonovsky bridge as there is only really one path out till they can get to Oleshky and before that they have to cross another bridge over the Konka river which I am sure the Russians would blow in the even a serious attempt is made.
I am surprised that Russia hasn't already blown that bridge. There's evidence now that Ukraine is right up next to it.
I really wonder how hard the Konka is to cross right now. It's really a branch of the Dnipro, and the area where the Ukrainians are is really an island. But the water level now is already much lower than before the dam burst.
The problem that Russia has in defending Oleshky is that it's so isolated.
Posted on 6/27/23 at 6:13 pm to GOP_Tiger
Reports of 2 strikes in Kramatorsk. There appears to have been military involved based on the large number of uniforms running around although one of the missiles is claimed to have struck a restaurant while the other hit what looks to be an apartment building next to it (which is where the uniforms may have been housed)
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673757487743246352 - Video
https://twitter.com/WorldAffairsPro/status/1673818185773056001 - Video
There are claims of "lots" of foreign soldiers around based on a few people speaking English in videos and a photo of someone attending injured with a USA flag on their helmet. One of the English speakers who attends an injured man on the ground does appear to have a Rangers 3rd Battalion tattoo.
Note: I don't normally link Squatson as he is pure propaganda but in this instance the catch of the tattoo is significant, even if only because it's going to get amplified.
https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1673803675062657025
There are also claims that it was in fact a Ukrainian missile that caused the damage - though the footage shown doesn't show any indication it is from the same strike.
https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1673680401653547011
Edit: Clarity
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673757487743246352 - Video
quote:
On the anniversary of a horrific missile strike on a civilian shopping mall in Kremenchuk, Russian forces bomb shopping and residential areas there and also in Kramatorsk, injuring many.
https://twitter.com/WorldAffairsPro/status/1673818185773056001 - Video
quote:
Horrific video coming out of Kramatorsk after Russian missiles hit the E Ukraine city - killing 4 people and injuring 42 (including an 8-month-old baby) Ukrainian media reporting. NSC spox John Kirby condemned the attack.
There are claims of "lots" of foreign soldiers around based on a few people speaking English in videos and a photo of someone attending injured with a USA flag on their helmet. One of the English speakers who attends an injured man on the ground does appear to have a Rangers 3rd Battalion tattoo.
Note: I don't normally link Squatson as he is pure propaganda but in this instance the catch of the tattoo is significant, even if only because it's going to get amplified.
https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1673803675062657025
quote:
Very possible that a large troop concentration was hit in Kramatorsk today. Lots of military men running around and a lot of English can be heard.
There are also claims that it was in fact a Ukrainian missile that caused the damage - though the footage shown doesn't show any indication it is from the same strike.
https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1673680401653547011
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 6/27/23 at 6:16 pm
Posted on 6/27/23 at 7:00 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I am surprised that Russia hasn't already blown that bridge. There's evidence now that Ukraine is right up next to it.
I have seen a few reports of armoured vehicles taken out near Oleshky via artillery/UAV or possibly mines, have you seen other things? Only the mines indicate possible UAF troops that close.
Not blowing the bridge yet is a surprise though if I was the one making the call I would probably have it mined and zeroed with artillery so that if and when the UAF came to crossing it serious damage could be inflicted along with a nice photo shoot to play off.
I've seen very conflicting views on crossing the dried out river beds and am not convinced that it is an option yet, though it may make it easier in some parts and the Konka is far narrower than the Dnipro, being around 50-200 metres wide in the area around Oleshky.
Having seen and walked over largish river beds that dried out several times a lot will come down to how the surface are formed.
Man made flooded plains from a dam or other obstruction are likely to be mud areas which can dry out on top but this forms a skin and remains quite soft and boggy underneath for months. I believe large areas of the Dnipro fall into this and are wide out in the open.
Natural river beds tend to be stone because of the eroding action of the river washing smaller particulate matter away over centuries so will dry much faster and form a sturdier bed but will only likely be found in the areas of the original Dnipro river prior to the dams construction.
quote:
The problem that Russia has in defending Oleshky is that it's so isolated.
Which could explain part of the reason Ukraine is attempting something here as it makes it more difficult for Russia to bring in fresh troops and supplies, which has been likely exacerbated since the dam breach. It also means while Ukraine might be able to take and hold it more easily to use as a staging ground breaking out further will have added challenges.
Edit: Added further comment.
This post was edited on 6/27/23 at 7:03 pm
Posted on 6/27/23 at 7:02 pm to WhereisAtlanta
quote:
They are not stupid, the group that is aligned against Putin represents their entire customer base, all Putin has to offer is cheap hydrocarbons and you can not even afford that if you are broke.
How much cheaper is hydrocarbons than actual sales price of $35 per barrel? That is what Russia is selling it for and why Saudi Arabia, China, India and Turkey are refining Russian crude. In the case of Saudi Arabi that enables all of its own crude to be sold at higher prices
Posted on 6/27/23 at 7:04 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
OMG. This is Al Jazeera, not known as a NATO mouthpiece.
Not at all, China has never recognized Crimea as being Russian.
Posted on 6/27/23 at 7:06 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
Rangers 3rd Battalion tattoo.
Bat Boy
Posted on 6/27/23 at 7:23 pm to OutsideObserver
A couple of other things I found today.
By Sam Greene, this is perhaps one of best summations on what Russia is doing to try and mitigate the fallout from last weekend and the challenges they face in doing so.
https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1673644077705838596
Another good thread from Sam Bendett looking at the use of naval drones in the Ukraine war, their evolution, and how Ukraine and Russia are developing them further.
https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1673760237973655553
Edit: Clarity
By Sam Greene, this is perhaps one of best summations on what Russia is doing to try and mitigate the fallout from last weekend and the challenges they face in doing so.
quote:
Putin is hoping -- through a series of set-piece events, like last night's security meeting and today's address on Cathedral Square -- to rewrite the narrative of Prigozhin's putsch as one of consolidation and consensus. That may be a difficult hill to climb.
/1
As I wrote on Saturday, the greatest threat to Putin at this point comes not from Prigozhin, but from the potential that these events break the hermetic seal on the public consensus that there is no alternative to Putin.
/2
The fact that the Kremlin's new through-line is that the mutiny was defeated by the unwavering support of Russians suggests, I think, that Putin's advisers share my analysis. Rhetoric isn't accidental. They're trying to solve the problem they think they have.
/3
My guess -- and I obviously have no data here -- is that many, if not most, Russian citizens will find this rhetoric comforting and will thus be eager to accept it. The odds are, then, that Putin succeeds in driving this message home.
/4
Research suggests, however, that many Russians know people who have fought, including for Wagner -- and so there is the potential for this message to be challenged from corners that, unlike liberal media, have not really been marginalized.
/5
The problem for the Kremlin is that that the message isn't entirely true. Many will have seen the pictures from Rostov, of locals feting Wagner troops as they departed. More broadly, while people didn't get behind Prigozhin, they didn't come out to stop him, either.
/6
Putin and his advisers likely realize that most Russians sat on the fence for this one, and thus they will be looking for ways to push them off the fence and into a more actively supportive position. Rhetorically, that may be easy enough. But if push comes to shove again?
/7
The deeper challenge is that this kind of fence-sitting isn't the absence of a clear opinion: it's strategic. Ordinary Russians have survived the past 30+ years by keeping the state at bay. Performing loyalty is part of that strategy. Actually being loyal - less so.
/8
As a result, most Russians are likely to remain firmly on the fence, keeping their options open -- which means Putin will remain nervous about his support base if and when another challenge emerges. And so will his elite.
/9
Putin's support among the elite is not, fundamentally, ideological: it rests on their belief that he can, among other things, keep the system together and keep them safe from the people. If that belief falters, they may begin looking for a more effective leader.
/10
Thus, Putin's rhetoric is aimed as much at the elite as at the masses: "See," he's saying, "everyone's with me -- so don't jump ship." The question is whether the elite buy it. We'll have to wait and see.
/END
https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1673644077705838596
Another good thread from Sam Bendett looking at the use of naval drones in the Ukraine war, their evolution, and how Ukraine and Russia are developing them further.
https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1673760237973655553
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 6/27/23 at 7:26 pm
Posted on 6/27/23 at 7:31 pm to OutsideObserver
I wonder if that could be an emblem for another country because it's not the current Ranger unit insignia.
Posted on 6/27/23 at 7:36 pm to OutsideObserver
I haven’t read the last 100 pages or so. Can somebody update me on the vaunted, vilifying, VWagner Group?
I know the boss went to Belarus and is expected to either “fall” out of a window from a tall building or have a “heart attack” within the next 30-60 days. What about his fighters? Will they go home to be killed/thrown in prison with their family? Will they go to Belarus to “fall” out of a tall building? Or will they join the Russian army to be sent to the battles with the highest mortality rate?
I know the boss went to Belarus and is expected to either “fall” out of a window from a tall building or have a “heart attack” within the next 30-60 days. What about his fighters? Will they go home to be killed/thrown in prison with their family? Will they go to Belarus to “fall” out of a tall building? Or will they join the Russian army to be sent to the battles with the highest mortality rate?
Posted on 6/27/23 at 7:42 pm to jafari rastaman
In Stalin's time they'd all be dead or in a gulag by now. Kim Jong Un or Xi would do the same thing. Putin turns out to be less Michael Corleone and more like Fredo.
Posted on 6/27/23 at 9:00 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
I wonder if that could be an emblem for another country because it's not the current Ranger unit insignia.
Possibly, it does sound to be an American speaking in the video which is where the conclusion is being made.
What does the current insignia look like?
Posted on 6/27/23 at 9:14 pm to OutsideObserver
The guy definitely could be a US Ranger, because tattoos, t shirts, etc with the historic insignia is also a thing. But if it was a Ranger scroll like above it wouldn't leave any room for doubt.
This post was edited on 6/27/23 at 9:16 pm
Posted on 6/27/23 at 9:25 pm to nitwit
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reputation among Wagner personnel and within the Russian society.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s account of his mediation between Putin and Prigozhin on June 24-25 in tandem with Putin’s June 26 speech indicates that Putin promised Lukashenko and Prigozhin that Prigozhin and the Wagner Group would have “security guarantees” in Belarus.
Lukashenko likely seeks to use the Wagner Group in Belarus to buy maneuvering space to balance against the Kremlin campaign to absorb Belarus via the Union State and likely seeks to closely control any Wagner Group forces that move into Belarus.
Lukashenko also announced on June 27 that Belarus had received an unspecified number of Russian nuclear weapons on a previous date – a development that Lukashenko may also use to balance against the Kremlin’s campaign to absorb Belarus via the Union State.
The ongoing Putin-Lukashenko-Prigozhin powerplay is not yet over and will continue to have short-term and long-term consequences that may benefit Ukraine.
The Kremlin campaign to destroy Prigozhin’s reputation and possibly dissolve the Wagner Group’s Ukraine force decreases the probability of Putin announcing a new round of reserve mobilization in the near term.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least four sectors of the front and reportedly made gains on June 27.
Russian President Vladimir Putin identified the Ukrainian main counteroffensive effort on June 27, possibly signaling his own defensive priority.
Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks northwest of Svatove and south of Kreminna.
Ukrainian officials are signaling that Ukrainian forces are capitalizing on the armed rebellion in Russia and intensifying counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area as of June 27.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblasts’ administrative border area.
Russian milbloggers expressed concern at Ukrainian attempts to advance south of Kherson City.
Russian officials expressed varied opinions on the future of private military companies (PMCs) in response to the armed rebellion.
The UN reported that Russia has detained hundreds of Ukrainian civilians since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Posted on 6/27/23 at 9:38 pm to StormyMcMan
A "series of explosions" occurred in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, according to Vladimir Rogov, a collaborator with the illegal occupation administration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
At around 1 a.m. local time, Rogov wrote on the Telegram messaging app that six explosions had occurred, saying that more details would follow.
Attacks in the Russian occupied city have become more frequent in recent months in what is likely part of Ukraine's counteroffensive, now underway along the southern and eastern front lines.
LINK
Guessing another Russian ammo cache has been blown up. Likely HIMARS.
At around 1 a.m. local time, Rogov wrote on the Telegram messaging app that six explosions had occurred, saying that more details would follow.
Attacks in the Russian occupied city have become more frequent in recent months in what is likely part of Ukraine's counteroffensive, now underway along the southern and eastern front lines.
LINK
Guessing another Russian ammo cache has been blown up. Likely HIMARS.
Posted on 6/27/23 at 9:42 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
I wonder if that could be an emblem for another country because it's not the current Ranger unit insignia.
The diamond emblem is from the WWII 75th AKA the Black Death. The tan-beret boys often wear diamond-emblazoned casual wear. Not surprised if they get diamond tattoos now.
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