re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

That response to Putin's address is spot on.

Time to go to bed. It's 5am here. But some things to think about;

1. Putin came out hot, but how will he respond to this civil war? He can't easily call forces back from Ukraine ( and easily lose territory). He also risks forces turning on him in Moscow, which will not be a good look. Push back too hard, and he risk turning Wagner into martyrs. No easy option for him.

2. What does Prig really want? The response to Putin's address seems to suggest that he wants Putin's head. That's...not going to be easy. Moscow may not have the tanks, planes it usually does, but I don't think Putin is going to allow Prig to just waltz into Moscow. Could be looking at a bloodbath in the greater Moscow area if Putin can get enough people to support him in the outskirts of the city.

3. How quick can Ukraine launch a large offensive? And where? This is Ukraine's golden opportunity to strike back hard now that Russian forces are in disarray. But they still need to know where Russia is weakest. Crimea is the obvious bet but they still haven't crossed the first line of defense yet.

4. Decisions need to be made and sides chosen by a bunch of people...and quickly. The Mobiks ( who will likely choose Prig if given a chance). The Chechens. The other oligarchs ( the people who actually run Russia). The Russian Congress/elected political leadership. The Russia Army still in Russia ( some have already switched).Luka. Most importantly though is the Russian people. There are twitter reports that the elites in St. Petersburg would support Prig. Likely the same is the case in Moscow. But what does the average Russian think? The babushkas in rural Russia? The parents of kids who they haven't heard from in months? Or a year? Will they start to speak out? The people that have been subjected to State propaganda for the last 30 years? There's also the Free Russia Legion who has already said they won't support either. The Belrussian people may also see this as their chance at an uprising.

5. How quickly does NATO/ other allies get a handle on all this? I'm guessing Prig as leader in Russia with nukes isn't exactly a tenable option ( especially for the Baltics/Poland). They may not have a choice though. Rolling in tanks from Finland and Latvia isn't a recipe for "peace" either. The CIA/NSA and related parties have to be working overdrive to figure all this out.

6. What will China do, and how long does it take for them to speak out? Will they provide military support in support of Putin? Xi and Putin are allegedly good friends, but thanks to this war China has almost turned Russia into a vassal state. There has to be some knockoff Tums being consumed in Beijing right now by the gallon by the political leadership there.

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Xi and Putin are allegedly good friends

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No, Xi doesn't give a crap about anyone, only China. And the Chinese are very patient, no Tums knock-offs needed. They'll simply wait until things shake out and use whatever is given to their advantage, or try to.

The downing of Russian aircraft seems a little much if this is nothing but an act. I’m leaning towards some real trouble brewing.

Kadyrov said his army is on its way to fight Wagner:
"Friends, it has been a difficult night and flights have not allowed time for me to voice here my position on this heinous BETRAYAL!!

Everything that is happening is a knife to the back and a real military rebellion!" - Kadyrov said.

Twitter link

LSU baseball and Russian civil war watch party???

It is the perfect time for Moldova to resolve the issue with the Russian occupation of Transnistria.

The unrecognised state of Transnistria lies across the Dniester river on the country's eastern border with Ukraine.

I would think there are several areas like this that need to be "resolved".

If they didn't have the worst outfitted Army in mainland Europe I'd agree.

It is going to take some serious training/equipment to get them up to snuff.

So Putin is the Czar, Prig is Lenin, and 2023 is 1917.

Full translation of Putin's address from War Translated and untranslated video link.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672508593969549312

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672509669095383041 - Video

quote:

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"I appeal to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement and security services, fighters and commanders currently fighting on their positions, repelling the enemy attacks, doing it heroically.

I spoke to the commanders in all directions last night. I appeal also to those who were deceptively pulled into the criminal adventure, pushed towards a serious crime of an armed mutiny.

Russia today is leading the most difficult war for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-nazis and their handlers. Against us, the whole military, economical and information machines of the West are turned.

We fight for the lives and security of our people. For our sovereignty and independence. The right to remain Russia, a state with 1000 years of history.

It’s a battle where the fate of our people is decided requires uniting of all our forces, unity, consolidation and responsibility. Everything else hat weakens us must be shoved to the side.

Our external enemies are using any arguments to undermine us from within. Thus, actions splitting our unity is a betrayal of our people, our combat brothers who fight now at the frontline. It’s a strike in the back of our country and our people.

Exactly this strike was dealt in 1917 when the country was in WW1, but its victory was stolen. Intrigues, and arguments behind the army’s back turned out to be the greatest catastrophe, destruction of the army and the state, loss of huge territories, resulting in a tragedy and a civil war.

Russians were killing Russians, brothers killing brothers. But the beneficiaries were various political chevaliers of fortune and foreign powers who divided the country, and tore it into parts. We will not let this happen.

We will protect our people and state from any threats, including internal betrayal. What we’re facing is exactly internal betrayal. Extraordinary ambitions and personal interests led to treason. Treason of their own country and people and of the case that fighters of Wagner were dying for alongside our soldiers.

Heroes who liberated Soledar and Artemivsk, towns and cities of the Donbas. They fought and were giving lives to Novorossiya and the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory were also betrayed by those who are trying to organise the mutiny, pushing the country into anarchy and brother-killing, to a defeat, in the end, and capitulation.

Repeat: any internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to us as a nation. It’s a strike against our nation, our people. And our actions to defend the fatherland from such a threat will be brutal.

Anyone who consciously went on the path of betrayal, who prepared the armed mutiny, went on the path of blackmail and terrorist actions, will take an inevitable punishment.

They will answer to the law and our people. The Armed Forces and other departments were properly instructed. Extra anti-terrorist measures are now being implemented in Moscow, Moscow region, and a number of other regions.

Decisive actions will be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains difficult. The operation of civilian and military control departments is practically blocked.

As a President of Russia and the Supreme Commander, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, protect the Constitution, lives and safety, liberty of the citizens.

Those who prepared the military mutiny, who raise weapons against combat brothers, have betrayed Russia, and will pay for this. And those who are being pulled into the crime, I’m asking to not make this crucial, tragic, unrepeatable mistake. Do the one right choice - stop participating in criminal actions.

I believe that we will defend and preserve what’s sacred for us. And together with the motherland, we will overcome all challenges, and become even stronger.

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Also full translation of statement put out by Kadryov

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672530538324713473

quote:

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"Friends, the night turned out to be difficult and the flights did not give time to voice here my position on this vile betrayal!

Everything that is happening is a KNIFE IN THE BACK and a real military coup!

I have repeatedly warned that war is not the time to voice personal grievances and resolve disputes in our rears. The rears must always be calm and reliable. Imagine how the guys in the trenches feel now, who are facing the enemy, and behind their backs are treacherous villains. We are talking about stability, about the cohesion of the state, about the security of citizens.

History shows that such actions can lead to bloody consequences. Have we not got enough losses in the SMO? Do we need to create more problems inside the country?

We have a Supreme Commander-in-Chief, elected by the people, who knows the whole situation to the smallest detail better than any strategist, and even more so a businessman, calls the commanders "on the ground" personally and fully controls the course of the SMO. And the decisions of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief are taken in a balanced and scrupulous manner. Each of us sees only one part of the map, and he sees everything at once! And Vladimir Vladimirovich quite rightly noted in his address to the nation - this is a military rebellion! There is no excuse for such actions!
I fully support every word of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin!

I appeal to the fighters - patriots of our Motherland. Do not fall for provocations. Whatever goals you are given, no matter what promises you are told - the security of the state and the cohesion of Russian society at such a moment is above all else! See how our enemies in the West are taking advantage of this situation. How many throw-ins, how many lies, how many false appeals that frighten our citizens, create the danger of a destabilising situation. And these are the expected consequences of Prigozhin's treacherous march.

What is happening is not an ultimatum to the Ministry of Defense. This is a challenge to the state, and against this challenge it is necessary to rally around the national leader: the military, security forces, governors, and the civilian population.

The fighters of the Ministry of Defense and the Russian Guard in the Chechen Republic have already left for the zones of conflict. We will do everything to preserve the unity of Russia and protect its statehood!

The rebellion must be crushed, and if this requires harsh measures, then we are ready!"

https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/37

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Edit: Clarity

What happened to the Russians who were attacking from Ukraine a few weeks ago? It would seem they would join the "rebellion"?