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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/24/23 at 1:54 am to jefffan
Posted on 6/24/23 at 1:54 am to jefffan
quote:
Imagine if Blackrock to San Diego (11th largest city) and occupied Winston Salem (330 miles from Washington DC with little resistance.
I don't think this would likely happen in the US unless there was some general revolt. Russia was fine with responding to Ukrainian attacks on their established front line, things were relatively static and by the numbers.
A speedy, and what looks to be, unexpected move by Wagner has caught them very flat footed.
I don't believe the lack of resistance is down to some mass revolt at this point, though that possibility remains, it is more likely Russian's inability to respond to unexpected changes at ground level effectively meaning the troops just don't know WTF to do. I don't expect this will continue if the MoD manages to start exerting some control back down the chain.
2
Posted on 6/24/23 at 1:57 am to OutsideObserver
Also the reports of Wagner capturing the capitals seems to be more about them occupying the military facilities - this could point to other forces joining with them.
I do agree with others points that the last thing this needs is for Prigozhin to gain access to nuclear arms as that could start a more problematic spiral.
I do agree with others points that the last thing this needs is for Prigozhin to gain access to nuclear arms as that could start a more problematic spiral.
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:02 am to OutsideObserver
It’s been over an hour, did Putin die on the toilet or something
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:03 am to OutsideObserver
Putin speaking now. I haven't found a stream with live translation
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:04 am to OutsideObserver
Good point. Putin appears similar to Stalin after Hitler attacked Russia and couldn't function for weeks afterwards.
At the speed this is going Putin and his friends might not have weeks for him to get it together. This address today is very important to show he is still in control. Otherwise...
At the speed this is going Putin and his friends might not have weeks for him to get it together. This address today is very important to show he is still in control. Otherwise...
This post was edited on 6/24/23 at 2:10 am
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:06 am to jefffan
quote:
Hopefully Russia can get enough people to secure the site. While this situation is somewhat hilarious. No one wants them being used.
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:07 am to OutsideObserver
don't believe the lack of resistance is down to some mass revolt at this point, though that possibility remains, it is more likely Russian's inability to respond to unexpected changes at ground level effectively meaning the troops just don't know WTF to do. I don't expect this will continue if the MoD manages to start exerting some control back down the chain.
They better hurry. If these Wagner higher ups are still all alive in 48 hrs ole Putin has, IMHO, an irreversible situation. Heck it might already be too late. You only stay the mob boss when you’re in absolute control. Any weakness and your own crew can and will turn on you.
They better hurry. If these Wagner higher ups are still all alive in 48 hrs ole Putin has, IMHO, an irreversible situation. Heck it might already be too late. You only stay the mob boss when you’re in absolute control. Any weakness and your own crew can and will turn on you.
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:08 am to jefffan
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:09 am to jefffan
Putin made it very well known that he sees these people as traitors, we got ourselves a civil war folks
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:11 am to dawgfan24348
I figured this would happen if Russia suffered a decisive defeat. Right in the middle of the war before anything is decided was not on my bingo card.
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:16 am to Jim Rockford
Wonder how China will react, if Russia falls into chaos that won’t be good at all for China
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:19 am to Jim Rockford
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:25 am to Obtuse1
So think tank, what are the odds that the US and India become Allies considering the incentives of cheap oil vs vetted western weapons?
That, and most of their taxable economy being based on western outsourced industries
If the latter, how does Russia ultimately respond over that kind of transition?
Let alone the Pakistani transition. Need ma some intel.
Top secret. Don’t tell anyone.
That, and most of their taxable economy being based on western outsourced industries
If the latter, how does Russia ultimately respond over that kind of transition?
Let alone the Pakistani transition. Need ma some intel.
Top secret. Don’t tell anyone.
This post was edited on 6/24/23 at 2:36 am
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:37 am to VooDude
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 24 June 2023
In the early hours of 24 June 2023, the feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner Group and the Russian MoD escalated into outright military confrontation.
In an operation characterised by Prigozhin as a 'march for freedom', Wagner Group forces crossed from occupied Ukraine into Russia in at least two locations. In Rostov-on-Don, Wagner has almost certainly occupied key security sites, including the HQ which runs Russia's military operations in Ukraine.
Further Wagner units are moving north through Vorenezh Oblast, almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow. With very limited evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces, some have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner.
Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia's security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis plays out. This represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 24 June 2023
In the early hours of 24 June 2023, the feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner Group and the Russian MoD escalated into outright military confrontation.
In an operation characterised by Prigozhin as a 'march for freedom', Wagner Group forces crossed from occupied Ukraine into Russia in at least two locations. In Rostov-on-Don, Wagner has almost certainly occupied key security sites, including the HQ which runs Russia's military operations in Ukraine.
Further Wagner units are moving north through Vorenezh Oblast, almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow. With very limited evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces, some have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner.
Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia's security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis plays out. This represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times.
This post was edited on 6/24/23 at 2:38 am
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:50 am to cypher
Russian authorities announce "counter-terrorist measures" in Moscow city and oblast
Ukrainska Pravda, Roman Petrenko — Saturday, 24 June 2023, 10:01
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin and Moscow Region Governor Andrei Vorobyov have said that "counter-terrorist measures" are being implemented in the capital of the Russian Federation and the Moscow Oblast; in particular, they provide for additional control on the roads.
Source: Sobyanin on Telegram; Vorobyov on Telegram
Quote: "In connection with the incoming information, anti-terrorist measures are being carried out in Moscow, aimed at strengthening security measures. Additional control on the roads has been introduced. Restriction of mass events is possible. Please treat the measures taken with understanding."
Details: Vorobyov also announced enhanced security measures in Moscow Oblast.
Quote: "Security measures have been strengthened in Moscow Oblast; the situation is controlled by law enforcement agencies and the FSB. Counter-terrorist measures are being carried out. Additional checks are possible on the roads in the southern direction; in this regard, I ask [the citizens], if possible, to refrain from using personal vehicles in the south of Moscow Oblast, especially outside the region."
Ukrainska Pravda
Ukrainska Pravda, Roman Petrenko — Saturday, 24 June 2023, 10:01
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin and Moscow Region Governor Andrei Vorobyov have said that "counter-terrorist measures" are being implemented in the capital of the Russian Federation and the Moscow Oblast; in particular, they provide for additional control on the roads.
Source: Sobyanin on Telegram; Vorobyov on Telegram
Quote: "In connection with the incoming information, anti-terrorist measures are being carried out in Moscow, aimed at strengthening security measures. Additional control on the roads has been introduced. Restriction of mass events is possible. Please treat the measures taken with understanding."
Details: Vorobyov also announced enhanced security measures in Moscow Oblast.
Quote: "Security measures have been strengthened in Moscow Oblast; the situation is controlled by law enforcement agencies and the FSB. Counter-terrorist measures are being carried out. Additional checks are possible on the roads in the southern direction; in this regard, I ask [the citizens], if possible, to refrain from using personal vehicles in the south of Moscow Oblast, especially outside the region."
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 6/24/23 at 2:57 am to cypher
PMC Wagner mercenaries shoot down three helicopters of the Russian Air Force overnight
The Wagner PMC mercenaries shot down three helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the night of June 23 to 24.
The statements of the leader of the paramilitary group Prigozhin were confirmed by Russian specialized telegram channels.
According to Fighterbomber, Wagner PMC mercenaries shot down two Mi-8MTPR electronic warfare helicopters (EW). The helicopters flew in a pair. The crews managed to survive the downing.
Also, Ilya Tumanov, administrator of the Fighterbomber channel, confirmed the destruction of the Mi-35 attack helicopter.
According to the Helicopterpilot channel, the Mi-35 was shot down after it had hit the Wagner convoy.
At the same time, the report says, ordinary crews refused to perform a combat mission and someone from the high command of the aviation unit flew the Mi-35.
link has image & videos...
Defense industry of Ukraine
The Wagner PMC mercenaries shot down three helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the night of June 23 to 24.
The statements of the leader of the paramilitary group Prigozhin were confirmed by Russian specialized telegram channels.
According to Fighterbomber, Wagner PMC mercenaries shot down two Mi-8MTPR electronic warfare helicopters (EW). The helicopters flew in a pair. The crews managed to survive the downing.
Also, Ilya Tumanov, administrator of the Fighterbomber channel, confirmed the destruction of the Mi-35 attack helicopter.
According to the Helicopterpilot channel, the Mi-35 was shot down after it had hit the Wagner convoy.
At the same time, the report says, ordinary crews refused to perform a combat mission and someone from the high command of the aviation unit flew the Mi-35.
link has image & videos...
Defense industry of Ukraine
Posted on 6/24/23 at 3:02 am to cypher
If Russia has any operational Fighter Jets left in the country now is the time to use them.
Wagner likely has S-300/400 anti-air batteries at their disposal though soooo.....good luck?
Wagner likely has S-300/400 anti-air batteries at their disposal though soooo.....good luck?
Posted on 6/24/23 at 3:13 am to cypher
Dmitri
@wartranslated
AP Wagner: “Pypa (Putin) made the wrong choice. That’s worse for him. Soon we will have a new president.”
@wartranslated
AP Wagner: “Pypa (Putin) made the wrong choice. That’s worse for him. Soon we will have a new president.”
This post was edited on 6/24/23 at 3:15 am
Posted on 6/24/23 at 3:18 am to cypher
Posted on 6/24/23 at 3:27 am to cypher
Dmitri
@wartranslated
AP Wagner: "The trigger of the Civil War was pulled by Pypa [Putin]. Instead of sending one or two degenerates into retirement, he gave the order to neutralize the most combat-ready unit in Russia. The life of one or two traitors was placed above 25,000 heroes. Who is evil in this conflict is already obvious. The victory will be for PMC "Wagner".
AP Wagner is one of numerous channels associated with senior figures in Wagner.
@wartranslated
AP Wagner: "The trigger of the Civil War was pulled by Pypa [Putin]. Instead of sending one or two degenerates into retirement, he gave the order to neutralize the most combat-ready unit in Russia. The life of one or two traitors was placed above 25,000 heroes. Who is evil in this conflict is already obvious. The victory will be for PMC "Wagner".
AP Wagner is one of numerous channels associated with senior figures in Wagner.
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