re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ditto on how far they have advanced.

LINK

quote:

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The Russian Army has blown up a dam on the Mokri Yaly River in an attempt to stop the accelerating Ukrainian counteroffensive in the area

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It's what the Russians do.

quote:

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As I said earlier, I agree with this. If Ukraine can capture Staromlynivka, then they will have east-west roads to broaden the salient, and then then have roads going towards Berdyansk and towards Mariupol. They can set up a new FOB there and will have Mariupol in HIMARS range.

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Wargonzo says that if the Ukrainians reach Staromlynivka, then the situation for the Russians becomes critical.

https://twitter.com/sierra__alpha/status/1667989143522099200?s=46

Visegrád 24
@visegrad24

HIMARS missiles are raining down on Russian positions in Tokmak tonight.

If my understanding of the situation is correct, then this is how Ukraine has made the advances that it has along this axis:

These towns lie along a river, and to the east of the river, there's a belt of forest along a ridge above the towns. Russia had troops defending the towns and the roads, but Ukraine had taken the Russian positions at the entrance of the ridge, and rapidly pushed armored vehicles along the road at the edge of the forest. After that, it was simply a matter of pinning Russian troops between Ukrainians advancing from the north and the threat of other Ukrainians to their rear along the forest ridge.

All of these towns have bridges across the small river, so once a town on the east side was taken, it would put severe pressure on the town on the west side, with Ukraine also advancing from the north on the road on the west side of the river.



EDIT: in short, Ukraine was able to use the terrain and the forest cover to make a rapid advance -- something that would be very difficult in the flat, treeless last to the west near the reservoir.

EDIT 2: And if I'm correct, the dam getting blown is going to do very little to slow Ukraine down.

A Russian soldier on the Vremievsky ledge front says “Already lost are not only the positions on which I stood, but practically reached my point of temporary deployment in the rear (10 km from the front)

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1668007808657248256?s=46

He adds that “This was expected, because the prepared defense lines were erected at Staromlynovka and closer to Krasnaya Polyana. Their construction took place before my eyes. We had many questions then why they were preparing for defense far beyond the house where we live”

15ish or so more miles and Ukraine all but cuts the front in half and ends Crimea as a route of supply. Mariupol itself would be in HIMARS range and we and we all have witnessed what happens when they are in HIMARS range from Kherson last year. Even less to target the main road leading to Mariupol from Crimea.

LINK

If true , how does this happen?

Mine clearing vehicles go forward alone because mines.

Mine clearing vehicles get hit by artillery.

What’s not shown in that picture is the dead Russian artillery from counter battery fire.

Note that this time, the only dead vehicles are mine clearing vehicles instead of a bunch of APCs and a couple Leopard MBT