re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Here's a story from a Russian Telegram about the dam that actually makes sense. That's not to say that it's true, but it's the first thing that I've heard that seems plausible. The TLDR is that Russia sappers messed up and accidentally blew up the dam earlier than they were supposed to.

@NOELreports:

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The Russian Volunteer Corps still have presence near Novaya Tavolzhanka, they claim. Although there are no more video's in the urban areas.

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Russia now appears to be in the final stages of pushing the RVC/LFR groups out from their 2nd incursion into Russia. The RVC/LFR now only hold a small forest area along the border, if they still have that.

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I think this was a legitimate concern in the past but not within the past 20+ years at least. I can't envision Russia going into a full on war with NATO over Estonia, so where is this showdown going to occur? I know this mentality has been engrained in Americans for several decades now but Russia is a shell of its former self. Say Russia completely collapses and falls into chaos, how is that a good thing for us or anybody?

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I know you said you were finished talking on this subject, but I’m just getting on for the first time since my post, so I just wanted to say something real quick.

Someone said a lot of what I would have said, about what Putin perceives to be the true Russian Empire and all of that. I think that’s a true and accurate statement, and a goal of Putin’s that we should take seriously.

I also think the tension and instability in the region should be enough to worry people. Some of these former USSR republics aren’t going to allow themselves to be under Russian control again. In particular Poland, Romania, and the Baltics. They also now have the means to be able to whip the Russians arse and I just don’t think they’d wait for Russia to invade them before acting. Now of course, the US would have to contain these countries, and will probably be able to. But the invasion increases the chances of some accident happening that’ll set everything off.

You’re right, the last 20 years have been the most “peaceful” time between the US-Russia, but just like that we’re going back to the Cold War days of thinking. I just don’t know if the world and humans will be able to prevent an all out military conflict between the US-Russia again. We got lucky it didn’t happen in the time period between 1945-1991. It was an inevitable thing and we avoided tragedy somehow. I just worry that we won’t be able to avoid it this time, if this thing doesn’t end in Ukraine. We’ve kind of played God in a sense, and have messed around with human nature, and the natural way in which humans do things. I just don’t know if it’s going to catch up to us or not. Maybe I’m thinking too much into that last part lol but that’s all from me on this subject.

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Do you also get your war updates from Reddit?

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Please tell us your sources so we aren't an echo chamber

Lootie finna eat

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The whole Ukrainian “Nazis” thing is difficult for most Westerners to comprehend. This is because from the Western perspective Nazis were purely evil and bad and did nothing good. However, from the Ukrainian perspective, things are not quite as simple.

First you have to understand the history of Ukraine in the yeas before WWII. Ukraine had been part of the Russian Empire since the 18th century until it fell in 1917. While part of the Russian Empire, they saw their language and customs suppressed by Russia. Once the Russian Empire collapsed, Ukraine claimed independence. From the Ukrainian point of view, their independence was made possible by Germany defeating the Russian Empire.

But as soon as Ukraine declared independence, they found themselves embroiled in multiple wars and eventually were caught up in the Russian Civil War. In the Russian Civil War, thousands of Ukrainians were slaughtered and the country was conquered by the new Soviet Union. Under Soviet control, the misery for Ukrainians only intensified. The repressive Soviet regime arrested, tortured, and deported massive numbers of Ukrainians. People lost their homes, their farms, and thanks to forced “collectivization”, a man-man famine raged through Ukraine in the 1930s that killed millions. You can find out the details of this famine by searching the term “Holodomor”, it’s brutal. So basically, by 1941, Russia has been oppressing Ukraine for a century and a half and that repression had progressed to outright genocide.

Thus, when the Germans invaded in June 1941 for many Ukrainians, they saw the Germans as liberators. They saw what the Germans did to Russians and wanted to help them crush Russia for what Russia had done to them for generations. This is why, even to this day, there are some Ukrainians who view the Nazis differently than we do in the west. It’s because from their perspective, the Soviets were far worse and the Nazis at least tried to rid the world of the scourge of communism and all the atrocities it brings.

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Good post, Darth. I always enjoy your historical insights.

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But I think Ukraine should consider an amphibious assault right now, while Russian forces are in disarray. Push those 100 amphibious Rosomak IFVs right across.

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Just spoke with a friend in Poland who worked for our NSA under Reagan and due injuries in Beirut before this medically retired and now a prof in Poland and works with their military.

2 months before Ukraine can do an amphibious crossing now but it will be easy to bridge. Russia lost at least a battalion worth of equipment and a number of men to the floodwaters.

And their capacity for suffering.

Emmanuel Macron tweet:

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I expressed to President Zelensky my solidarity with the Ukrainian people after the attack on the Kakhovka dam. France condemns this atrocious act, which is endangering populations. Within the next few hours, we will send aid to meet immediate needs.

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Western leaders are not calling it a "tragedy." It was an "attack." Macron is one of those I would most expect to be wishy-washy about this, and he's not. He's crystal clear.