re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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The safest place to be during a Russian Artillery attack. Right where they are targeting. Anywhere else your fricked

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Unless you’re in a children’s hospital or civilian apartment complex. They hit those on purpose with deadly accuracy. Almost never miss actually.

Video from the generator hall.

twitter

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I can imagine scenarios where either side blows up the dam, but I can also see it being an accident. The water in the reservoir has been far, far higher than normal, because the dam has not been managed properly.

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Right now there is a lot of speculation about the who and the why so I am holding off while the situation develops from forming a solid opinion however I consider these likely points in the case of the damn breach being intentional:

Russia could have done it:

- If they had intel that an over water push was on the cards and they wanted to disrupt it any way possible.
- They wanted focus taken off other areas by Ukraine because things are not as rosy as they have indicated.
- As payback for the incursions up North.

Ukraine could have done it:

- To act as a distraction themselves while they push elsewhere.
- To cause logistics issues for Russia as they go for an upriver crossing attempt.
- To cut the water supply to Crimea.

All of these reasons need to be balanced against the significant political, humanitarian and strategic issues this is going to regardless of intent.

There is also a case to be made for this being a coincidental accident, albeit caused indirectly by the war due to previous damage and poor handling of the dam afterwards. I will point out that I usually do not believe in coincidences and the timing of this is extremely suspect however some of the evidence gathered in this thread does point towards this being caused due to a conflux of factors rather than an intentional event.

Note: I have not come across the account before, it looks well established and is affiliated with the Washington Post, take that as you will.

https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1665933276647772160

Much of the information has already been covered however if these are accurate they stand out as pointing towards indirect/mis-management causes.

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Prior to whatever happened overnight, the Kakhovka Reservoir had reached unprecedentedly high levels. This was likely due to Russian forces keeping too few gates open, the NYT reported, just months after letting the reservoir sink to historic lows: https://nytimes.com/2023/05/17/world/europe/dam-flood-ukraine-kakhovka.html

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New satellite imagery of the Khakovka dam from June 5 shows evidence that a section of the roadway and sluice gates had been recently damaged or destroyed.

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Image 1 - May 28



Image 2 - June 5

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Ukrainian nuclear power company Energoatom says the situation at Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant is under control - the cooling pond for the plant's six reactors is fed from the reservoir, but its depth is sufficient and the reactors are all in cold shutdown mode.

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The IAEA is aware of reports of damage at #Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam; IAEA experts at #Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant are closely monitoring the situation; no immediate nuclear safety risk at plant.#ZNPP

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For those worrying about water for cooling, there is a large pond next to the plant that should be more than enough to deal with cooling what is still warm enough to need cooling. Remember that the plant is not producing rn. [radiation]

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LINK
LINK

IAEA: 'No immediate risk' to nuclear safety at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

by Kate Tsurkan June 6, 2023 12:35 PM

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on June 6 that it was closely monitoring the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant after Russia blew up the Kakhovka dam, adding that there is "no immediate nuclear safety risk at the plant."

Russian forces destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant’s dam across the Dnipro River on the morning of June 6, sparking a large-scale humanitarian and environmental disaster across southern Ukraine.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which has been under Russian occupation since March 2022, relies on water from the reservoir to provide power for its turbine condensers. Russian forces have used the plant as a military base to launch repeated attacks on Ukrainian territory.

In early May, IAEA officials warned that the situation at the plant was "increasingly unpredictable and potentially dangerous" due to the frequency of shelling nearby.

Around 16,000 people's homes in Kherson Oblast are located in "critical risk" zones for flooding after Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka dam, according to Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin.

The Interior Ministry reported that 885 people have been evacuated from Kherson Oblast as of 11:00 a.m. local time.

The Kyiv Independent

Offensive will not be stopped by blowing up hydroelectric power station – Ukraine's Armed Forces
Yevhen Kizilov — Tuesday, 6 June 2023, 11:12

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have stated that the Russians’ blowing up of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) will not prevent the Defence Forces from continuing to liberate the occupied territories.

Source: Strategic Communications Department of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Telegram

Quote: "Ukraine has all the necessary watercraft and pontoon bridge crossings to cross water obstacles. The enemy’s insidious actions, which are creating a social and economic crisis, will not stop the Defence Forces of Ukraine, which are ready to liberate the occupied territories of Ukraine."

Details: The department noted that the Russian military leadership destroyed the dam because of "its fear of the Ukrainian army" and "the success of the Ukrainian Defence Forces in carrying out offensive actions."

Ukrainska Pravda

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I am now leaning more towards this being unplanned by either side despite the timing, unless more solid evidence of direct action is forth coming.

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If you look at the videos coming from the Russian side, all the Russian troops seem shocked.

And neither side wants a nuclear meltdown. Yes, the plant is in Ukraine, but the prevailing winds are more often towards Russia.

Here's meteorologist David Helms a month ago, criticizing Russian mismanagement of the dam: LINK

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1. Ruschist operation of Kakhovka HPP (K-HPP) dam has been reckless. Kakhovka Reservoir (KR) water level has alternated from record low to record high in just 3 months. Loop (6 FEB-6 MAY 2023) shows sand bars receding with rising KR water.

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Kakhovka Reservoir contains over 18 cubic kilometers of water, 46% of all water storage in the Dnipro cascade. Ruschist incompetence and/or intentional mismanagement continues to put thousands of Ukrainian civilians at risk.

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With the water behind the dam at such unsafe, high level, the dam would have been under extraordinary pressure. And we know that Russian and Ukrainian troops were firing at each other across the river. One stray artillery shell hitting a support on the dam might have been all that was necessary to cause the collapse.

Y'all can call me crazy if you like, but I believe that the destruction of the dam is likely accidental.

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The Nordstream demo was highly technical because of the difficult in getting the charges to the pipeline. If it was above ground it would have been pretty easy to set a ribbon charge around the pipe with any high-velocity plastic explosive.

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That is the preferred method for deepwater piling severance for offshore production platforms. Those heavy wall pipe pilings are not under internal pressure. It was the preferred method at any depth until the Feds started making they operator pay for dead fish. Diamond saws are now used. This is at 6 feet or more below the mudline. Commercial divers have been doing this for decades offshore Louisiana. Thousands have been removed over the years.