re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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It’s against their policy pretty sure. And isn’t it illegal to photograph Ukrainian military positions?

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Yes and Yes. As a matter of fact they arrested 4 people after the previous incident with Patriots. Those people shared videos online that showed enough to allow Russia to geolocate some of the Patriot launchers.

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What is more plausible, that the Ukrainians would risk their support from the West by allowing weapons we provide them to be sold to the cartels

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This is a feature, not a bug

All Putinist missiles were intercepted.

ColtRange said:

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Nice find but I think you're looking at the wrong part. I watched the whole thing and went back & forth a few times. I saw the part you are describing and then several minutes later the real explosions happened. Fairly large explosion and then about 3 seconds later a massive one. This originated from the ground, not in the air.

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It was not that hard to track down.



No, I was not looking at the wrong part - perhaps you got confused with my references to the earlier event time stamps.

The part starting at 03:30:30 that I referred to as being from the Twitter clip shows the initial skyborne explosions shortly followed by the three large explosions. You then see the smoke clouds in the same positions that move across to the right before the errant AD missile fires.

I disagree the explosions were definitely ground based given the agency of the smoke, the skywards angle of the camera, and its poor resolution. Furthermore if you slow down the video the central points of contraction for all three ground "hits" appear to be above the visible horizon. The only thing that definitely looked like it hit the ground was the last AD missile that went askew.

In the end the video sucks for ascertaining what happened so it is very easy to draw conclusions one way or another but the observable evidence points the way I am currently leaning in my view.

Edit: Clarity

Ukraine's air defence destroys more than 30 Russian aerial targets above and around Kyiv
Olha Hlushchenko — Friday, 2 June 2023, 04:55

Serhii Popko, Head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, reported that on the night of 1-2 June, air defence detected and destroyed more than 30 aerial targets of various types in the airspace over and around the capital.

Source: Popko, citing Kyiv City Military Administration’s Telegram channel; Vitali Klitschko, Mayor of Kyiv

Quote: "The terror of Kyiv with air attacks continues. Desperate terrorists attack the capital almost without pause. Over the past six days, the Ruscists have already carried out the sixth airstrike on the city! And each time the enemy changed weapons.

After ballistic missiles the day before, this time the attack was combined – drones and cruise missiles at the same time. The missiles were launched from Tu-95MS strategic bombers from the Caspian Sea, probably by Kh-101/555 cruise missiles.

Details: Popko noted that Kyiv was attacked simultaneously from different directions by UAVs and, according to preliminary data, Shahed barrage munitions.

According to early reports, more than 30 aerial targets of various types were detected and destroyed in the airspace over Kyiv and around the capital by air defence forces and means.

Update as of 05:04: Klitschko reported that smouldering missile debris was found on the road in the Darnytskyi district of the capital after the air raid siren. In addition, in the Podilsky district, a grass floor caught fire as a result of falling debris.

Ukrainska Pravda

It will be interesting to learn after the war ends if Ukraine was being truthful about their intercept ratios. By successfully getting their population to not post about the attacks they are really controlling the information space much more effectively than Russia is.

I do not accept Ukraine's 100% interception statements at face value. They may turn out to be true, but I think a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted.

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I do not accept Ukraine's 100% interception statements at face value. They may turn out to be true, but I think a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted.

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We shouldn’t accept either sides numbers. Part fog or war and part propaganda.

But I remember from the gulf wars. An intercepted scud was one that was hit and altered its path. Some that were hit still fell on other targets and exploded. And some exploded in the air.

We normally like to keep this thread clear of US politics, but sometimes it's necessary.

With the US Senate passing the debt deal last night, work on a Ukraine supplemental spending bill is likely to be on the agenda very soon.

A number of members of Congress wanted to include money for Ukraine in the deal, but that didn't happen. Why? Because Congress wants to brag that they cut the deficit, so money for Ukraine can be presented as "emergency" spending not subject to the limits in the debt deal.

Even going beyond Ukraine funding, a number of members were upset that the debt deal did not provide more money for defense.

Here's a Bloomberg article that lays some of this out.

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Republicans and Democrats are coalescing around a time-tested way to bypass spending caps for defense: an emergency supplemental.

Lawmakers are openly talking about stacking a future supplemental spending bill for Ukraine with other defense spending, partly to help the industry make weapons for Ukraine, but also to fill coffers for other programs meant to give the US an advantage over China.

“A supplemental would be very helpful,” said Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), the ranking member on the Senate Appropriations Committee. “That would be one way to deal with the inadequate top line for the Department of Defense, as well as the threat from China, the shrinking Navy and Air Force that we are facing, and the need to provide additional assistance to Ukraine.”

Maine is home to General Dynamics Corp.‘s extensive shipbuilding operations.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) threatened to hold up consideration of the debt-limit bill (H.R. 3746) if congressional leaders don’t answer his questions about planned cap-exempt spending bills for Ukraine or the US military.

“I want to hear, are we going to do a supplemental? Are we going to do a supplemental for Ukraine? Can we do a supplemental for our defense?” Graham told reporters Wednesday when asked about the bill. “I’m going to vote no, and the difference between me voting no and burning the place down is, I want answers to my questions.”

Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.), a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, said he expects supplementals not just for Ukraine but other “troubled” spots in the world and to address competition with China.

“I fully expect there will be more defense spending the rest of the fiscal year,” Lamborn said.

Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said a Ukraine supplemental could carry other US defense needs. The panel’s top Republican, Roger Wicker (Miss.), said he would work on such a supplemental, adding he’s a “likely no” on the debt deal.

“They’ve built this incredible mousetrap that we have to figure out,” Reed told reporters this week. “With Ukraine, you’re going to have to have a supplemental. We might put some other stuff in too.”

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) later tweeted, “Someone’s saying the quiet part out loud.”

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As I said in a prior post, the main reason that a Ukraine supplemental couldn't be discussed before now was that McCarthy was in a weak position as Speaker. He's dramatically strengthened himself through his handling of this deal.

I guarantee you that, in their negotiations, Biden and McCarthy discussed the need for a Ukraine supplemental -- the debt deal would not have happened without it. I'm not saying that any amounts were agreed to, or anything specific, but an agreement to do a Ukraine supplemental had to be part of the deal. And it wasn't just Biden who required that to be part of the deal, as I'm sure that McConnell insisted on it as well.

And it's likely that everyone wants to get the deal done soon. The money that we have budgeted for Ukraine will run out in a couple of months, and it's better to do it soon, before the presidential race starts to heat up.

Finally, keep in mind that a Ukraine supplemental is also a way to boost the DoD budget, as it will do much of what the previous bill did -- authorize the sending of older equipment to Ukraine, and also authorize the DoD to buy new equipment to replace it.

TLDR: the debt deal helped ensure that Ukraine will get a lot more help over the next 18 months.

MFA of Ukraine
@MFA_Ukraine
#Kyiv. June 1. International Day for Protection of Children.

Grandfather sits over the body of his 9-year-old granddaughter, killed by #Russia.

I downvoted this, not because I disagree or have a beef with you, but because I can’t even begin to imagine the grief that grandfather is feeling. If that was one of my granddaughters…

The downvote was for the situation.