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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/31/23 at 12:35 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 5/31/23 at 12:35 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
They absolutely had the combat power available. They just fricked it all up.
Ehh... theoretically they had the combat power available. But years of unchecked corruption caused too much rot within the military to be able to perform at a high level.
1
Posted on 5/31/23 at 12:50 pm to Dr RC
Pretty good write up on the Battle of Kyiv.
Battle of Kyiv: tactics and tricks that saved Ukrainian capital
Battle of Kyiv: tactics and tricks that saved Ukrainian capital
Posted on 5/31/23 at 1:09 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Yes they got close, but they bogged down because the Ukrainians put up a stiff enough resistance to stop them cold. It has been nothing but a failure since. The year-long campaign to capture Bakhmut isn't anything for Russia to beat its chest about.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 1:36 pm to cypher
Thank you for sharing.
“ On day one of the full-scale invasion, Russian forces crossed the Ukrainian border from the east, north, and south, splitting their war effort into several axes of a rapid advance. In the south, Russia attacked the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts of Ukraine from the occupied Crimean Peninsula. In the east, Russian forces launched a large-scale offensive from the territory of Russia and the occupied Donbas region, attacking Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts. In the north, Russia started an assault on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kyiv oblasts, using the territory of its ally Belarus to attack the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.
Russia had been building up its forces of 190 000 troops on the Ukrainian border since March 2021, planning to pull off an overwhelming blitzkrieg to capture Kyiv and other big Ukrainian cities quickly.”
“The Russian plan assumed disoriented forces would defend the Ukrainian capital while Ukraine’s political leadership, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, would flee the city.
However, the Ukrainian President and government decided to stay in Kyiv despite the danger and refused to relocate to western Ukraine, which boosted the morale of Ukrainian defenders. Thousands of people in Kyiv and all over Ukraine joined the Territorial Defense units and the Armed Forces of Ukraine to defend their homes.”
Russian’s belief that zelensky et al would simply flee rather than stay is such an incredible miscalculation that will ripple through the rest of the 21st century.
You know the Russian’s believed this thoroughly or they would have spent weeks launching a “shock and awe” style rocket and aerial assault to destroy critical infrastructure, communications, and gain air superiority before moving in the army.
But instead they wanted to waltz into the Ukrainian Capitol with the lights on and bridges intact.
“ On day one of the full-scale invasion, Russian forces crossed the Ukrainian border from the east, north, and south, splitting their war effort into several axes of a rapid advance. In the south, Russia attacked the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts of Ukraine from the occupied Crimean Peninsula. In the east, Russian forces launched a large-scale offensive from the territory of Russia and the occupied Donbas region, attacking Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts. In the north, Russia started an assault on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kyiv oblasts, using the territory of its ally Belarus to attack the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.
Russia had been building up its forces of 190 000 troops on the Ukrainian border since March 2021, planning to pull off an overwhelming blitzkrieg to capture Kyiv and other big Ukrainian cities quickly.”
“The Russian plan assumed disoriented forces would defend the Ukrainian capital while Ukraine’s political leadership, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, would flee the city.
However, the Ukrainian President and government decided to stay in Kyiv despite the danger and refused to relocate to western Ukraine, which boosted the morale of Ukrainian defenders. Thousands of people in Kyiv and all over Ukraine joined the Territorial Defense units and the Armed Forces of Ukraine to defend their homes.”
Russian’s belief that zelensky et al would simply flee rather than stay is such an incredible miscalculation that will ripple through the rest of the 21st century.
You know the Russian’s believed this thoroughly or they would have spent weeks launching a “shock and awe” style rocket and aerial assault to destroy critical infrastructure, communications, and gain air superiority before moving in the army.
But instead they wanted to waltz into the Ukrainian Capitol with the lights on and bridges intact.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 2:06 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
But really the only point of my post was that Russia was really close to pulling it off.
With your main thrust through a large swamp with only a few roads crossing it was the very definition of walking into an ambush. Had their airborne being able to hold Hostomel it would have been a different ballgame, but the couldn't hold it.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 2:32 pm to klrstix
Closing in on Kiev and actually taking it are two completely different things…. All with ~100k troops and no air superiority?… no way.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 3:21 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:Misspelled “mafioso”.
They have adapted to battlefield conditions, but structurally they seem to have many problems that won't be solved because of the authoritarian structure of Russian governance itself.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 5:28 pm to Chromdome35
Well it looks like the troop barracks that Ukraine hit with a Storm Shadow was housing a battalion of Russian special forces. If true that’s a pretty big blow. Also just on a side note; is there any cooler name for a missile than Storm Shadow. Well done U.K., well done……
Posted on 5/31/23 at 5:36 pm to LSUPilot07
“Russian Special Forces”
Posted on 5/31/23 at 5:50 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Well it looks like the troop barracks that Ukraine hit with a Storm Shadow was housing a battalion of Russian special forces.
Where did you see this?
Posted on 5/31/23 at 6:17 pm to ColtRange
I believe it was sky news where I saw it but like I said who knows if it’s true. Both sides pump up their actions and make their losses seem less than they actually are. Honestly though, what the hell would a special forces soldier be in Russia? Their performance in this war has proven how terrible their training really is.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 6:20 pm to LSUPilot07
At this point in the war. Russian regular forces would be considered special forces compared to the conscripts.
Training and experience vs green troops is a hot commodity……for both sides
Training and experience vs green troops is a hot commodity……for both sides
Posted on 5/31/23 at 6:39 pm to tigeraddict
Ukraine is going to be really relying on the 30,000 or so troops that were trained by NATO countries but they are going to need many many more men to achieve their objectives. I believe I saw someone post earlier about Ukraine really not being worried about losing parts of the Donbas since a lot of it has been destroyed and the people there are more pro Russia than other parts of the country. It’s Crimea that Ukraine wants back. I think it was GOP that said it earlier and I think he’s right. They are ready to concede parts of the Donbas in order to get Crimea. I have no idea what their plan is to achieve that goal but it is going to take massive amounts of men and equipment to force the Russians out of there. Something has to shake in the next 2 weeks though. Ukraine can’t wait forever.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 6:42 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Something has to shake in the next 2 weeks though.
But does it?
Posted on 5/31/23 at 6:52 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
They are ready to concede parts of the Donbas
Yes I completely agree.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 6:55 pm to tigeraddict
I don't think that we've talked about the big news from today's US aid package. It's that it includes this:
One of Ukraine's biggest air defense problems was that it is practically out of missiles for its Buk-M1 systems, of which it has many. You may remember that one of the first news stories from the Teixeira leaks was that "Ukraine is going to run out of air defense missiles for its legacy Soviet/Russian systems," and this freaked a lot of people out.
Well, it has taken some time, but we have finally figured out how to marry the Buk system to our AIM-7 Sparrow missiles. This is a huge W for Ukraine, as it now keeps a large number of AD systems in the fight.
quote:
• AIM-7 missiles for air defense;
One of Ukraine's biggest air defense problems was that it is practically out of missiles for its Buk-M1 systems, of which it has many. You may remember that one of the first news stories from the Teixeira leaks was that "Ukraine is going to run out of air defense missiles for its legacy Soviet/Russian systems," and this freaked a lot of people out.
Well, it has taken some time, but we have finally figured out how to marry the Buk system to our AIM-7 Sparrow missiles. This is a huge W for Ukraine, as it now keeps a large number of AD systems in the fight.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 7:03 pm to GOP_Tiger
And we still have A LOT of Sparrows so supply shouldn’t be an issue. Our fighters are now transitioning to the AIM-120 AMRAAMs so this is a logical solution to a problem without degrading our own forces capabilities.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 7:47 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Last night, the Afipsky oil refinery located in Krasnodar Krai of Russia was attacked with a UAV/loitering munition. As a result of the strike, a fire broke out at the facility.
Unless the crude unit is hit in this simple hydroskimming refinery its MEH for me but psychological to workers there is big
Posted on 5/31/23 at 7:48 pm to GOP_Tiger
Weiss is a bit annoying but she was great at explaining what is happening and what to expect.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 7:50 pm to CitizenK
I read elsewhere it was the crude distillation unit.
Not an engineer, just repeating what I read.
Not an engineer, just repeating what I read.
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