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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/18/23 at 2:38 pm to Stidham8
Posted on 5/18/23 at 2:38 pm to Stidham8
quote:
"#BREAKING Assault units of PMC "Wagner" have completely taken control of the fortified area "Domino" in the western sector of Bakhmut city this evening."
My man, you are back! Let's get a map update up in here!
1
Posted on 5/18/23 at 2:39 pm to Stidham8
quote:
"#BREAKING Assault units of PMC "Wagner" have completely taken control of the fortified area "Domino" in the western sector of Bakhmut city this evening."
Nobody cares.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 2:40 pm to IrishEyes
quote:
Nobody cares.
well actually, I kind of care. I am pretty confident there is a positive correlation between a Stidham post in this thread and positive news for Ukraine to follow.
This post was edited on 5/18/23 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 5/18/23 at 2:41 pm to TacoNash
Exclusive: U.S. could train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s in 4 months
Yahoo News has obtained a U.S. Air Force assessment of two Ukrainian pilots who outperformed stated Pentagon expectations over two weeks in a flight simulator at a U.S. air base.
Yahoo News has exclusively obtained an internal U.S. Air Force assessment that concludes it would take only four months to train Ukrainian pilots to operate American-made F-16 fighter jets, a far shorter time frame than what has been repeatedly cited by Pentagon officials.
Link contains the assessment.
Yahoo News
Yahoo News has obtained a U.S. Air Force assessment of two Ukrainian pilots who outperformed stated Pentagon expectations over two weeks in a flight simulator at a U.S. air base.
Yahoo News has exclusively obtained an internal U.S. Air Force assessment that concludes it would take only four months to train Ukrainian pilots to operate American-made F-16 fighter jets, a far shorter time frame than what has been repeatedly cited by Pentagon officials.
Link contains the assessment.
Yahoo News
Posted on 5/18/23 at 3:03 pm to Stidham8
Is this a sign the whole Eastern Ukrainian front is collapsing?
Posted on 5/18/23 at 3:52 pm to Obtuse1
Since it’s so superior and is “real power” that will find, shoot and maneuver faster than the M1A1 how about when the time comes Kadyrov lead the first attack on an Abrams with a T-72 then to back up his words and be an inspiration for his men? The T-72 should make the Abrams look like a toy by the way he talks so what could possibly go wrong? Put your money where your abnormally fat mouth is. No matter that the Abrams can engage the T-72 beyond what the Russian can tank can shoot.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:29 pm to Stidham8
quote:
"#BREAKING Assault units of PMC "Wagner" have completely taken control of the fortified area "Domino" in the western sector of Bakhmut city this evening."
Amazing.
At this rate, The entire eastern front will collapse by 2055! Stay patient, comrade.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:36 pm to LSUPilot07
Yet old T-62's whipped their butts at Kherson and to Lyman.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:38 pm to TacoNash
quote:
well actually, I kind of care. I am pretty confident there is a positive correlation between a Stidham post in this thread and positive news for Ukraine to follow.
An old long retired friend who was a tanker back around 1960 and who has issues with Italians, Jews, Blacks, etc... is the same way. He worships the ground that Doug MacGregor and Larry Johnson walk on and their extreme idiocy peaks right before Ukraine takes a bunch of territory.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:45 pm to lowspark12
You can see the momentum for F-16s building. It won't be long, now.
CNN:
That last bit is key. Our European allies could support F-16s and train pilots, mechanics, etc., but they could not really do enough of it without significant strain.
And that means that the US will likely also give some jets, though I would guess that at least half will come from our European partners.
CNN:
quote:
The Biden administration has signaled to European allies in recent weeks that the US would allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, sources familiar with the discussions said, as the White House comes under increasing pressure from members of Congress and allies to help Ukraine procure the planes amid intensifying Russian aerial attacks.
Administration officials are not aware, however, of any formal requests by any allies to export F-16s, and State Department officials who would normally be tasked with the paperwork to approve such third-party transfers have not been told to get to work, officials said.
A handful of European countries have a supply of the US-made F-16s, including the Netherlands, which has signaled a willingness to export some of them to Ukraine. But the US would have to approve that third party transfer because of the jets’ sensitive US technology.
While the US remains reluctant to send any of its own F-16s to Kyiv, US officials told CNN that the administration is prepared to approve the export of the jets to Ukraine if that is what allies decide to do with their supply.
quote:
US lawmakers and congressional staffers have joined in the F-16 lobbying campaign, urging the administration to provide the jets so that Ukraine can establish control over its skies.
“As a bipartisan group of lawmakers, we view the transfer of F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine as essential for providing Kyiv with the air support capability required to fully defend their nation against Russia’s unprovoked, illegal, and brutal invasion, and to make the territorial gains necessary to reclaim their country,” a group of Republican and Democratic lawmakers wrote in a letter to President Joe Biden on Wednesday that was obtained by CNN.
The issue is expected to be a subject of debate at the next NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July, officials said.
Another open question is where Ukrainian pilots would train on these F-16s. A spokesperson for UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said earlier this week that the UK and the Netherlands were looking to form an “international coalition” not only to procure the jets for Ukraine but also to train Ukrainian pilots on the 4th generation fighters, which are more advanced than the Ukrainian fighter fleet.
quote:
US allies with F-16s could conduct training for Ukrainian fighter pilots, or the aircraft’s manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, could carry out training as a private contractor. But the defense official said such an arrangement would likely need some level of US participation, even if it doesn’t require an official US sign off like the transfer of US weaponry overseas.
That last bit is key. Our European allies could support F-16s and train pilots, mechanics, etc., but they could not really do enough of it without significant strain.
And that means that the US will likely also give some jets, though I would guess that at least half will come from our European partners.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:50 pm to GOP_Tiger
Also in that same CNN article:
That means that I was wrong about how the 2 jets and 2 helicopters were shot down a few days ago. They were shot down with a Patriot system.
quote:
Defense officials and congressional staffers told CNN that Ukrainian troops have in recent weeks used the US-made Patriot air defense system to shoot down at least one faraway Russian fighter jet. The Russian jets have largely been staying behind Russian defensive lines, making them difficult for Ukraine to target with shorter-range systems like NASAMs.
The Russian planes the Patriot targeted were on a bombing run to fire missiles against Ukrainian targets, US officials said, which Russia has been doing throughout the past year to maximize civilian casualties.
The officials said the Ukrainians were responsible for making their own firing decisions once the west provided the Patriot systems, noting it is up to the Ukrainians when and how to engage the Patriots to protect their people.
That means that I was wrong about how the 2 jets and 2 helicopters were shot down a few days ago. They were shot down with a Patriot system.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 5:28 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
You can see the momentum for F-16s building. It won't be long, now.
I must admit this song and dance is getting old. Just give Ukriane F-16s and ATACMS. Like HIMARs and tanks, it’s just a matter of time so let’s skip the line this time and get to the qualitative advantage phase of this war . . . which interestingly enough is also the end phase of this war.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 6:05 pm to Stidham8
quote:
"#BREAKING Assault units of PMC "Wagner" have completely taken control of the fortified area "Domino" in the western sector of Bakhmut city this evening."
Now just how many 100s of miles west of Bakmuth is this?
Posted on 5/18/23 at 7:05 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
though I would guess that at least half will come from our European partners.
We’ll probably tell one of them to give Ukr their older f-16’s (probably c’s) and in return we will replace with similar or more modernized.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 8:44 pm to LSUnation78
If f-16s do come they will most likely come from the Netherlands or Denmark from their aging fleet of f-16s. Both want to acquire more f-35s and new block 70/72 F-16s to replace their used jets. They would still be an upgrade over Ukraine’s old Mig-29 fleet but both countries fly early model f-16A/B block 15 era jets so they are some of the oldest f-16s still in active service with a lot of flight hours on them. The good thing is that parts and upgrades can be done to squeeze some more life out of the airframes and keep them as a formidable adversary for Russia. They would still need to keep their Mig-29 and Su-25 fleets flying even if they received f-16s though since I would be surprised if they got more than 2-3 squadrons worth (24-36 aircraft). Even that small of a number would still make a big difference in the defense of their sky.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 8:46 pm to LSUnation78
ISW Update
So despite Stidhams post it would appear that Ukraine is actually doing pretty well in Bakhmut currently
quote:
Key Takeaways
Ukrainian forces have seized the tactical initiative and made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18.
Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces have seized the battlefield initiative in the Bakhmut area.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted on May 18 that Wagner mercenaries are unable to encircle the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut due to the loss of stable flanks north and south of Bakhmut.
Prigozhin and Wagner-affiliated milbloggers are blaming Russian conventional forces for military failures in and around Bakhmut.
Prigozhin’s efforts to blame the Russian military for failures around Bakhmut are causing some ultranationalists to accuse him of using the Battle for Bakhmut to satisfy his personal ambitions.
Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike across Ukraine on the night of May 17 to 18, targeting Kyiv for the ninth time since the beginning of May.
The Kremlin continues to strengthen domestic repression measures likely to encourage self-censorship and prepare Russian society for a prolonged war.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO may discuss the possible provision of Western fighter jets to Ukraine at the June Defense Ministers meeting.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Unknown actors, possibly Ukrainian partisans, attacked a Russian rail line in Crimea.
The Russian Supreme Court ruled on May 18 that Russian military personnel who voluntarily surrender on the battlefield will be prosecuted under treason charges.
Russian occupation authorities continue to announce patronage programs with Russian federal subjects to support infrastructure projects in occupied territories.
So despite Stidhams post it would appear that Ukraine is actually doing pretty well in Bakhmut currently
quote:
Ukrainian forces have seized the tactical initiative and made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18. These operations are a continuation of the localized counter-attacks Ukrainian forces have been conducting for some days and do not reflect the start of a major new operation. Multiple Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces drove through the Russian defensive lines south and southwest of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) and northwest of Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut) from the northwest.[1] The milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces retreated from positions north of Sakko i Vantsetti (15km north of Bakhmut) to positions south of the settlement, but that Ukrainian forces have not yet entered the settlement. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Russian forces yielded 570 meters of territory north of Bakhmut, which is consistent with Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar’s statement that Ukrainian forces had advanced 500 meters north of Bakhmut and 1,000 meters south of Bakhmut.[2] Ukrainian Eastern Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces advanced up to 1,700 meters in the past day, and the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade stated that the brigade’s counterattacks expanded the Ukrainian salient in the Bakhmut area to 2,000 meters wide by 700 meters deep.[3]
Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces have seized the battlefield initiative in the Bakhmut area. Cherevaty stated on May 18 that Ukrainian forces regained the battlefield initiative and are forcing Russian forces to respond to Ukrainian actions, including by transferring Russian Airborne (VDV) elements to Bakhmut’s flanks to defend against the Ukrainian advances.[4] Malyar stated that Russian forces have deployed most of their reserves to the Bakhmut area, very likely to the detriment of other areas of the frontline.[5] ISW recently assessed that the Russian military command is reallocating military assets to the Bakhmut area in order to augment Wagner’s offensive capabilities and to gain a tactical victory ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.[6] The limited nature of Wagner’s offensive operations in Bakhmut compared to the localized Ukrainian counterattacks underscores the loss of Russian initiative in the area. Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner forces began assaulting one of the final Ukrainian fortified areas in western Bakhmut.[7] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official and prominent Russian information space voice Vladimir Rogov claimed that Wagner forces cut the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar road in western Bakhmut on May 17, although ISW is unable to confirm this claim.[8] Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces advanced 260 meters in Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces only control 1.28 square kilometers of the city.[9] One milblogger optimistically claimed that Wagner forces increased their pace of advance following Russian ammunition deliveries to Wagner, though Prigozhin’s claimed daily rate of advance has remained largely consistent.[10]
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted on May 18 that Wagner mercenaries are unable to encircle the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut due to the loss of stable flanks north and south of Bakhmut. Prigozhin accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of losing advantageous positions after MoD-subordinated units retreated from their positions on Bakhmut’s flanks necessary for an encirclement.[11] Prigozhin and Wagner sources have long indicated Wagner’s intent to encircle Bakhmut and trap Ukrainian forces but proved unable to do so after the Ukrainian military command decided to defend the city. ISW had previously assessed that Russian forces were unlikely to encircle Bakhmut after Wagner forces made several rapid breakthroughs north, south, and east of the city in winter-spring 2023.[12] Prigozhin likely anticipated that Ukrainian forces would entirely withdraw from Bakhmut out of fear of imminent encirclement and even offered to allow President Volodymyr Zelensky to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the city on March 3.[13] The Ukrainian defensive operation, however, prioritized the defense of the Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) west of Bakhmut, which forced Wagner forces into urban warfare and grinding directly through the city itself. Prigozhin’s admission further supports Ukrainian officials’ statements that Wagner is losing the initiative on the battlefield.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 8:48 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
So despite Stidhams post it would appear that Ukraine is actually doing pretty well in Bakhmut currently
Shocker
Posted on 5/18/23 at 9:02 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Even that small of a number would still make a big difference in the defense of their sky.
In what ways will it change the current state of things? What will it allow them to do that they are incapable of doing atm? I’ve been wondering about this.
This post was edited on 5/18/23 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 5/18/23 at 9:05 pm to ned nederlander
The U's wont be flying the F16s over Ukraine this year. That's ashame.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 9:08 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
So despite Stidhams post it would appear that Ukraine is actually doing pretty well in Bakhmut currently
Definitely
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