re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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A large wave of explosions - by some counts as many as 14 - reported by Russian sources in Sevastopol, temporarily occupied Crimea.

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A Ukrainian S-300PS air defense TEL with counter-Lancet loitering munitions screens. Photo posted by a Russian channel. 132/

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The previous message I shared seems to have sparked a debate, prompting me to address it more comprehensively. Ukraine and its people deeply appreciate the support offered by the West, as it fosters a sense of unity similar to a family bond and helps us to stop russians. Nevertheless, there are individuals expressing concerns that Ukraine's requests may appear excessive, potentially giving rise to perceptions of ingratitude. I wish to clarify my position in order to provide a better understanding of my argument.

In 1920, after gaining control over numerous states and territories, the Bolsheviks were finally halted by the combined forces of the Polish army supported by Ukrainians, halting their aspirations of further Western conquest. In 2022, Ukraine finds itself fulfilling a similar role. However, one might question if this is merely a quarrel between two countries, with no relevance to Europe.

Merely a year after the formation of the Russian Federation, this "new and democratic" nation invaded the newly established Moldovan Republic in 1992. The outcome of this aggression led to the creation of the so-called "Transnistria" - another "separatist" territory under the influence of Russian intelligence and Gazprom-affiliated entities. This unfortunate turn of events shattered the Moldovan people's hopes for a pro-European trajectory for many years to come.

During 1992-1993, Russia ignited a similar conflict in Georgia by supporting local separatists, resulting in the emergence of another unrecognized separatist republic. This act served to assert Russia's dominance over Georgia. Fast-forwarding to 2008, Russia invaded Georgia again, establishing additional "republics" on Georgian territory and further obstructing any potential pro-Western path for the nation.

Moving ahead to 2014, Russia's invasion of Crimea with minimal repercussions made them to believe that they could replicate this approach in the rest of Ukraine. Within a few months, fierce battles erupted when Russian units unexpectedly entered Ukraine and attacked our unsuspecting forces. European leaders compelled us to engage in negotiations and sign an agreement with Moscow, effectively relinquishing de facto control over the occupied territories. This only served to bolster Russia's confidence in Western weakness and their ability to project power.

Russia openly engaged in the Syrian war, showcasing its ability to strike distant targets with a show of force. Employing groups like Wagner, Russia continued to expand its influence and currently maintains a presence in countries such as Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Venezuela, and several others.

The situation deteriorated further when Russia essentially transformed Belarus into its vassal state after significant antigovernmental protests unfolded there in 2020-2021. The weakening role of NATO, combined with Russia-backed politicians rising to prominence in Europe and the manipulation of gas prices, led Putin to perceive Ukraine as weak and West as spineless.

When Putin initiated the invasion of Ukraine, he was thoroughly convinced that he could replicate the scenarios seen in Crimea and Donbass, effectively establishing another vassal state for his empire. However, he miscalculated the Ukrainian people's determination to defend their land, beliefs, and future. The well-known expression "I need ammunition, not a ride" signaled to the West that we would serve as a shield against russian aggression, uniting everyone in providing the significant assistance we had previously requested.

Had Ukraine not stood up against the monstrous Russian army, we would have inevitably become another constituent part of the russian neo-empire.

If Ukraine had not resisted the Russian invasion, it would have only been a matter of time before the Baltic states faced a similar fate. While some argue that such an outcome is implausible, citing the existence of Article 5, similar arguments were made when discussing the possibility of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. If Russia had succeeded in Ukraine, their perception of a weak and disorganized West would have been reinforced, instilling doubts about the willingness of Western nations to confront the prospect of a nuclear war over relatively small countries. Regrettably, I have already encountered this argument from certain individuals.

Challenges to the global security fabric require decisive action to prevent larger conflicts. Despite initial denials, we eventually received tanks, IFVs, artillery, ammo, rockets, air-defense, and HIMARS, which were crucial for saving lives. Putin cannot be deterred by compromise but by superior military force. Treating him as a rational actor ignores his propagandist illusions. Only by deploying superior military might we can end the war and prevent its spread to Europe further. This war is not just ours, hence, let us work together to swiftly bring it to an an end by providing the support our Ministry of Defense urgently needs.

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I had discussions with several officers in Bakhmut and its surrounding area today, and it is disheartening to note that the situation remains very challenging in the city itself. The problem stems from the fact that the russian forces maintain a significant advantage in terms of artillery and mortars numbers.

Regardless of the training, experience and preparation of our soldiers, if positions are reduced to rubble by non-stop shelling, we will be unable to hold them.

We continue to hear assurances about an increase in ammunition production and the time required for production to be rebuilt. However, despite being a year and a half into this conflict, we find ourselves in the same situation as we were a year ago.

The political impotence and reluctance to increase the pace of production and deliveries directly translates into Ukrainians paying with their lives for every instance of missing ammunition that remains undelivered.

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A full ???? brigade has been training in Sweden, ???? soldiers must have trained with Stridsvagn 122 (Leopard 2) , Stridsfordon 90 (CV-90) and Archer artillery systems. Reportedly this brigade returned to Ukraine this month - The Times

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WASHINGTON, May 18 (Reuters) - The Pentagon overestimated the value of the ammunition, missiles and other equipment it sent to Ukraine by around $3 billion, a Senate aide and a defense official said on Thursday, an error that may lead the way for more weapons being sent to Kyiv for its defense against Russian forces.

The error was the result of assigning a higher than warranted value on weaponry that was taken from U.S. stocks and then shipped to Ukraine, two senior defense officials said on Thursday.

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"We've discovered inconsistencies in how we value the equipment that we've given" to Ukraine one of the senior defense officials told Reuters. The officials and the Senate aide spoke on the condition of anonymity. Congress is being notified of the accounting adjustment on Thursday, the sources said.

The defense official said it is possible the amount of overvalued weaponry could grow beyond $3 billion as the Pentagon examines the situation more thoroughly.

In its accounting, the Pentagon used replacement cost to value the weapons aid, instead of the weaponry's value when it was purchased and depreciated, the senior defense officials said.

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"The services - the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines - were using, the current replacement cost of the item," one of the Senior defense officials said.

A March 31 memo, seen by Reuters, clarified to the top accountants in each branch of service which method should be used, citing existing regulation.

It will take time to work through the accounting for billions of dollars worth of equipment sent to Ukraine, the senior defense officials said.

In the case of 155 millimeter ammunition for Howitzer cannons, of which more than 1.5 million have been sent to Ukraine, each cost about $800 today. But the actual cost of each shell, which have been delivered to the U.S. military each year for several decades, can be averaged out for a much lower price, one of the senior defense officials said.

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$3 billion = 10% for the Big Guy

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