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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 5/15/23 at 12:42 pm to
Posted by 03GeeTee
Oklahomastan
Member since Oct 2010
3423 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 12:42 pm to
quote:

Pre WWI Mosin-Nagant rifles. They added a scope. Truly pathetic.


Russia didn't have Mosin Nagant sniper rifles pre WW1. That rifle in the video was produced sometime after the mid 1930s.
Posted by jfan244888
Soda City, SC
Member since Jul 2021
1134 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 1:11 pm to
Ukraine also in the move near Svatove. Village retaken.

LINK
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 1:18 pm to
quote:

Transnistria


I'm still very curious if there has been a single resupply/troop rotation here since the war in Ukraine started
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20970 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 1:28 pm to
quote:

Ukraine also in the move near Svatove. Village retaken.



Rybar made that claim and then later withdrew it. Ukrainian sources have said that they have not taken Kuzemivka.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20970 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 1:30 pm to
LINK

quote:

In an attempt to show he is totally not dead, Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko makes his first public appearance in nearly a week.

He is talking about Russian planes and helicopters shot down last weekend, seemingly confirming this is not stock video to be released in his absence
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20970 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 2:26 pm to
The Russian "Fighterbomber" Telegram channel has claimed that a Russian Su-57 has made its first kill of the conflict.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20970 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 3:28 pm to
Oh boy.

LINK

quote:

Breaking from Ukraine: the National Anti Corruption Agency is reported to detain the chair of the Supreme Court for a 3 million dollar bribe.

Details are to follow tomorrow; and be verified.
Posted by SwampGar
Texas
Member since Jan 2020
1481 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 4:20 pm to
quote:

ETA I signed up for an account with Skywatch, where I can get a hires image of the site for what looks to be $10. As soon as my account is approved I will buy it and see what it shows.


This is commitment right here. You guys are invaluable to me in regards to following this war. Thank you to the each of you. You know who you are.
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 4:23 pm to
The way it is being shaped online by pro-Russian accounts is that it was the store house for the DU munitions from the UK for Challenger tanks because there was a small increase in background gamma radiation measured in the area

Oliver Alexander along with a couple of other commenters in his thread show just how ludicrous this claim is based on the Pro-Russian accounts own information.

Twitter - @OAlexanderDK


The scene for this sort of claim was being shaped over the past several months with many Pro-russian sources talking about the dangers of DU munitions and how they cause radiation dangers.

It will be interesting to see what the imagery you were purchasing shows compared to the Rybar maps - which as commented show no signs of recent traffic necessary for the transportation of $500 million dollars of ammunition. Thanks for taking the time and $ to look into this more.

My view currently is that Russia knew where this site and others that have been targeted were located as they are well documented and knew they could use them to promote false narratives to muddy the water by blowing them up.

As an aside, it amazes me how effective the berms surrounding each location were in funnelling the blast up rather than out which is where I think some of the confusion over what sort of blast we are seeing originates for inexperienced observers such as myself.
Posted by lowspark12
nashville, tn
Member since Aug 2009
22581 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 4:35 pm to
quote:

Breaking from Ukraine: the National Anti Corruption Agency is reported to detain the chair of the Supreme Court for a 3 million dollar bribe. Details are to follow tomorrow; and be verified.


Clarence Thomas would be in jail if such a thing existed in this country.
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 4:39 pm to
An interesting read from Tatargami where he reports that captured Russian POWs are backing up what sources (both Ukrainian and Russian) are claiming about the mess that is developing in the command structure between Wagner and the MoD in Bahkmut.

I generally find Tartargami a relatively objective pro-Ukraine source, though this particular thread does feel a bit though too good to be true, it would be nice to see some corroborative evidence, such as the mentioned POW's on video to give it more weight.

Twitter -@Tatargami_UA

quote:

1/ Based on testimonies from PoW's, it has been revealed that several Russian regiments, predominantly composed of mobilized troops, were hastily deployed from rear positions without training or preparation after Prigozhin's statement about Bakhmut.


quote:

2/ These regiments were swiftly relocated to the flanks of Bakhmut, where deployed companies and battalions suffered devastating losses. Within a short period of three to five days, the casualties exceeded 40%, primarily comprising soldiers killed in action.


quote:

3/ The enemy soldiers reported a complete absence of commanders at the frontline, along with a severe lack of communication and the absence of clear orders. They complained over the mistreatment from the Wagner forces - who treat them as the lowest caste


quote:

4/ It was also reported that Wagner forces have assumed control over some of the Ministry of Defense units in the Bakhmut area. Because of that, there is a mistrust between units, as soldiers are systematically assigned by Wagner to areas where their chances of survival are low.


quote:

5/ Multiple prisoners of war expressed skepticism regarding Wagner's claims of limited ammunition and equipment. They claim to have significantly fewer resources in terms of ammunition and equipment compared to the Wagner forces.


quote:

6/ This situation further worsened when the Russian Ministry of Defense started deploying units consisting of convicts, a practice that was previously exclusive to Wagner forces. These convicts, have limited military value and sustain high losses.


quote:

7/ In the city, Ukrainians continue to face a challenging situation, while situation on flanks continue to decline for russians. Their attempts to reinforce with low-quality units have resulted in heavy losses and a significant blow to russian troops morale.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15700 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 5:10 pm to
Excellent observations, same with the solid rocket fuel plant they hit where the old rockets were stored, awaiting funds to destroy them
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20970 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 5:18 pm to
LINK

quote:

Macron refused to say in a TV interview whether that meant that NATO would soon end its refusal to send such planes to Ukraine. He said France, like the UK, would soon supply Kyiv with longer range missiles


The British Storm Shadow and the French SCALP are identical except minor differences in the exterior casing (the missiles mount to the Eurofighter differently than to the Mirage).

But I think that the missiles that Ukraine is getting from the UK were custom-made anyway, as the UK would not keep in stock a large number of the "export version" of the missile with the shorter range.

So France will probably just add on additional missiles to whatever order the UK placed -- I don't think that either nation is pulling from its own stock. In fact, it's entirely possible that this missile is getting manufactured with custom mounts for the Su-24.

These missiles cost about $1 million each. My gut tells me that the British probably gave Ukraine about 100 of them and that the French will then give the next hundred that come off of the assembly line.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15700 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 5:33 pm to
France does its own thing. Perun had an excellent presentation on the French military and its geopolitical focus globally. France is all about doing for France and while it cooperates with others, its geopolitical goals are different aside from defending Europe with NATO.

LINK

Edit: I need to add that it doesn't get along with Wagner at all.
This post was edited on 5/15/23 at 5:36 pm
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 6:27 pm to
Well many of you said this would happen, looks like you will be proven correct, though it does just appear to be amplifying already stated goals/plans for now.

quote:

The United Kingdom alongside France has announced today after President Zelensky’s Visit to Western Europe that the decision has been made to beginning the Training of Ukrainian Air Force Pilots on F-16s and other Western Fighter Jets with the Training set to begin in Summer.


Twitter - @sentdefender

Edit: Added news/background articles.

Appears to based upon theses statements:

www.gov.uk - Pm welcomes President Zelenskyy to UK.

quote:

To that end, in the last year the UK has trained 15,000 Ukrainian troops to battlefield readiness. In February the Prime Minister announced the UK would develop a new training programme for Ukrainian pilots to support their efforts to build a new Ukrainian air force with NATO-standard, F16 jets.

This summer we will commence an elementary flying phase for cohorts of Ukrainian pilots to learn basic training. This will adapt the programme used by UK pilots to provide Ukrainians with piloting skills they can apply a different kind of aircraft. This training goes hand in hand with UK efforts to work with other countries on providing F16 jets – Ukraine’s fighter jets of choice.


New Voice of Ukraine.com - Macron says France ready to train Ukrainian pilots.

quote:

France could start training Ukrainian fighter pilots, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with TF1 television channel on May 15, according to Le Monde.

"We have opened the doors to training pilots alongside several other European countries, which are also ready; I believe the negotiations with the Americans are ongoing," said Macron.
This post was edited on 5/15/23 at 6:39 pm
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30454 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 7:22 pm to
quote:

The way it is being shaped online by pro-Russian accounts is that it was the store house for the DU munitions from the UK for Challenger tanks because there was a small increase in background gamma radiation measured in the area


You have probably seen the images of firefighting robots they are purporting to use to put out the fire. There are stills of the robot in action and the accounts are using this to support the fact that radiation is so high they have to use robots. I found the original video and it shows the firefighters standing just a few yards away in normal firefighting turnout gear with no respirators running the robots. The person that originally pulled the stills would have seen this. Assuming this is one of the warehouses in the area it is filled with commercial and industrial "junk" though it may not have been junk prior to the fire. There are lots of small gasoline engines that look like trash pumps or gensets and a bunch of large circular saws (much bigger than 7.25" blades they look like beam saws). I have pulled the video off Twitter to avoid amplifying this pro-russia account but will include the link to twitter for transparency.

Offsite Twitter video

Video on Twitter

This building obviously was not ground zero for any of the major explosions and it may not even be video remotely related to the massive explosions. I just wanted to show it to make it clear the stills they are using to suggest the radiation is so high they had to use robots to fight the fire is 100% bullshite.



Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20970 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 7:31 pm to
Kyiv gets a series of explosions tonight. Currently unclear what has been intercepted and what, if anything, has hit targets.
Posted by ticklechain
Forgotten coast
Member since Mar 2018
834 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 7:49 pm to
I'm thinking that they use these robots in the area normally. Saw a pic of an outdoor blaze the other day before all this. Just a house on fire in a village
They were using one of those things. At least ten days ago
Posted by Pettifogger
I don't really care, Margaret
Member since Feb 2012
87345 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 7:52 pm to
quote:

Clarence Thomas would be in jail if such a thing existed in this country.



this is just pitch perfect for this thread
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 5/15/23 at 7:53 pm to
ISW Update

quote:

Key Takeaways

Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of Russian positions to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut.

Ukrainian officials acknowledged limited Ukrainian battlefield successes during recent localized counterattacks in and around Bakhmut.

Russian milbloggers uniformly attacked a proposal for “military censorship,” further indicating that the community is highly motivated to defend its privileged position within the Russian information space.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that it intercepted a Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile for the first time on May 15.

The Kremlin has reportedly banned high-ranking officials from resigning during the war in Ukraine, likely in an attempt to maintain stability within domestic security organs, government bodies, and the Russian military command.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on May 14 and 15 confirming the provision of more Western military aid.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Masyutivka, Kharkiv Oblast and established a bridgehead on the west bank of the Oskil River, but ISW has observed no visual confirmation of these claims.

Russian forces continued to launch ground assaults in and around Bakhmut and conducted limited offensive operations near Donetsk City.

Ukrainian intelligence reported that approximately 152,000 Russian military personnel in southern Ukraine continue defensive efforts ahead of a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Russian authorities continue efforts to take advantage of migrant labor and incentivize foreigners into contract military service.

Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to set conditions to forcibly relocate Ukrainians from occupied territories to Russia.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko received a briefing from Belarusian generals on May 15 following recent speculation about his possible illness or death.
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