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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/8/23 at 8:29 pm to TexasForever
Posted on 4/8/23 at 8:29 pm to TexasForever
quote:
You can't make this shite up
Except that it turns out now that this was not was the Discord was about (I will edit my post above). The Thug Shaker name was parody, according to Bellingcat:
quote:
The Thug Shaker Central server was originally named after its original founder, one member of the server with the username “Vakhi” told Bellingcat. Server administrator duties then passed through various users before a new member took on the responsibility and it went through one of many name changes. Vakhi did not want to name this person but said they were the original source of the leaked documents. According to Vakhi, and two other users who spoke to Bellingcat but declined to be identified by their usernames, the files that were leaked onto WowMao are only the “tip of the iceberg” compared to the quantity of documents posted onto Thug Shaker Central.
There are no traces left of this server outside of testimony from these users, and scattered references to its existence on 4chan. Bellingcat is therefore unable to independently verify all of the information shared by these users, including the aforementioned January document or if the other uploader described as the source of the leak was indeed the original source.
However, Bellingcat was able to confirm that Vakhi and the other users who spoke to Bellingcat, as well as another who shared documents on the WowMao server, were part of the Thug Shaker server given that they shared member lists with Bellingcat which matched in key details.
Their accounts of the server’s general nature also independently coincided. The name of the Thug Shaker server frequently changed, sometimes to that of a racial slur, and had around 20 active users making up a tight-knit community, members said. Posts and channel listings show that the server’s users were interested in video games, music, Orthodox Christianity, and fandom for the popular YouTuber “ Oxide”.
OK, now this is a completely different kettle of fish. Oxide is very much about Russian military stuff. And "Orthodox Christianity"? These guys are Russian.
I believe that this new information strongly suggests that the materials were deliberately leaked to harm the United States. I also now think that the odds are significant that this material went to Moscow a month ago, and not just this week.
In other words, real treason.
This post was edited on 4/8/23 at 8:36 pm
1
Posted on 4/8/23 at 8:37 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Except that it turns out now that this was not was the Discord was about (I will edit my post above). The Thug Shaker name was parody, according to Bellingcat:
That's honestly a relief.
quote:
According to Vakhi, and two other users who spoke to Bellingcat but declined to be identified by their usernames, the files that were leaked onto WowMao are only the “tip of the iceberg” compared to the quantity of documents posted onto Thug Shaker Central.
That's not good. Less embarrassing than the other explanation but the lack of security regarding classified military documents is alarming.
Posted on 4/8/23 at 8:44 pm to TexasForever
The irony is that, at the beginning of the war, the US was hesitant to share intelligence with Ukraine, because Ukrainian intelligence was so infested with Russian moles.
Now, they don't trust us, because we have a mole.
Now, they don't trust us, because we have a mole.
Posted on 4/8/23 at 9:25 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Putin's Twitter account has been restored but there are no new tweets. I don't expect anything interesting from it as it has always been mainly a recounting of his schedule for Western consumption.
Wonder why it’s now re-activated?
FTR I don’t think much of any should be disallowed in the name of free speech and open intel. Just find it curious it’s now re-activated while the reason it was deactivated remains active.
Posted on 4/8/23 at 10:51 pm to TexasForever
quote:
A Discord devoted to a specific type of black, gay porn is just as bizarre of a host of these documents as a Minecraft Discord is.
You can't make this shite up
That's right up Glenn Greenwald's past and present businesses. The gay porn production company is closed but the gay escort service and dating guide for Rio still exist.
Posted on 4/9/23 at 4:49 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 09 April 2023
On 5 April 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin chaired a full session of Russia's Security Council, the first such event since October 2022.
The main report was presented by Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, and discussed reconstruction, law enforcement and public order in the illegally-annexed areas of Ukraine.
The choice of Kolokoltsev as the main speaker is likely an attempt by the Kremlin to portray the situation in those territories as being normalised. In reality, much of the area remains an active combat zone, subject to partisan attacks, and with extremely limited access to basic services for many citizens.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 09 April 2023
On 5 April 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin chaired a full session of Russia's Security Council, the first such event since October 2022.
The main report was presented by Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, and discussed reconstruction, law enforcement and public order in the illegally-annexed areas of Ukraine.
The choice of Kolokoltsev as the main speaker is likely an attempt by the Kremlin to portray the situation in those territories as being normalised. In reality, much of the area remains an active combat zone, subject to partisan attacks, and with extremely limited access to basic services for many citizens.
Posted on 4/9/23 at 9:12 am to cypher
British Defense Iltelligence…
“Likely”…”Possibly”…”May have”…”Could be”…
“Likely”…”Possibly”…”May have”…”Could be”…
Posted on 4/9/23 at 10:06 am to Obtuse1
quote:Absolutely correct. We've discussed this option quite a few times here as it's really the only feasible choice to re-take Crimea. It is probably not possible for the Ukrainians to conduct full offensive operations in both Crimea and the Donbass / Luhansk.
Why Blockading Rather Than Retaking Crimea Might Be Kyiv's Best Option
Logistically, a Crimean offensive would be a nightmare and the personnel costs would be unsustainable. Why commit to the Russian play book and attack all those prepared defenses when it's not necessary? Think of the tremendous casualties the US absorbed in the Pacific by retaking Wake, Truk and Formosa. Yeah. And the outcome was the same.
The Ukrainians only need to do two things: cut the North Crimean Canal and to get their hands on long range missiles to take out the three bridges, airbases and port facilities. When that happens, the outcome is assured. The Russians will start their 120-day fasts while doing nothing for Putin's war effort. They can surrender or they can starve. Just a matter of time.
Posted on 4/9/23 at 10:28 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 4/9/23 at 10:41 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Logistically, a Crimean offensive would be a nightmare and the personnel costs would be unsustainable. Why commit to the Russian play book and attack all those prepared defenses when it's not necessary? Think of the tremendous casualties the US absorbed in the Pacific by retaking Wake, Truk and Formosa. Yeah. And the outcome was the same.
The US never retook Truk, Wake or invaded Formosa.
Posted on 4/9/23 at 10:53 am to Buckeye Backer
The UK has the best intel in the region.
Posted on 4/9/23 at 11:44 am to Lakeboy7
Ukraine takes out Russian S-300 air defense system in occupied Crimea
April 9, 2023, 11:51 AM
Powerful explosions rocked the temporarily occupied Feodosia in the south-eastern Crimea, Telegram channel Crimean Wind reported on April 8.
According to updated reports, two missiles were launched at the city, with one destroying an S-300 air defense system.
"One missile was shot down by air defense, the second hit the S-300 system and blew it up," the statement said.
The New Voice of Ukraine
From Twitter:
Russian source Rybar claims Ukraine fired Grom-2/Hrim-2 short-range ballistic missile on Crimea, Feodosia today from Odesa.
Reports suggest it was shot down by S-300 air defence system.
The distance from the launching point to Feodosia in a straight line is 415 km.
April 9, 2023, 11:51 AM
Powerful explosions rocked the temporarily occupied Feodosia in the south-eastern Crimea, Telegram channel Crimean Wind reported on April 8.
According to updated reports, two missiles were launched at the city, with one destroying an S-300 air defense system.
"One missile was shot down by air defense, the second hit the S-300 system and blew it up," the statement said.
The New Voice of Ukraine
From Twitter:
Russian source Rybar claims Ukraine fired Grom-2/Hrim-2 short-range ballistic missile on Crimea, Feodosia today from Odesa.
Reports suggest it was shot down by S-300 air defence system.
The distance from the launching point to Feodosia in a straight line is 415 km.
Posted on 4/9/23 at 1:20 pm to cypher
quote:
BREAKING: Europe must reduce its dependency on the US and avoid getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the US over Taiwan, French President Macron says - Politico
LINK
quote:
South Korea wants to discuss with the US part of the "Pentagon documents leak" — Reuters.
According to the publication, one of the documents contains details of internal discussions among high-ranking South Korean officials regarding US pressure on Seoul to help it supply weapons to Ukraine, and its policy of refusing to do so.
LINK
Posted on 4/9/23 at 1:27 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
BREAKING: Europe must reduce its dependency on the US and avoid getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the US over Taiwan, French President Macron says - Politico
Macron is such a worm. He goes to China with an entourage of 50 business leaders to make business deals and literally sells out freedom.
And if he wants European self-reliance and for Europe to depend less on the US, then he should start by enabling his own nation to do more than the small amount of military aid (compared to GDP) that France has given to Ukraine.
But he's likely now to lose to Le Pen in the next election, unless things significantly change before then.
Posted on 4/9/23 at 1:44 pm to doubleb
quote:That was my point.
The US never retook Truk, Wake or invaded Formosa.
Posted on 4/9/23 at 2:12 pm to GOP_Tiger
It’s the French, what do you expect? They’d be saying “Sieg Heil!” right now if it weren’t for us.
Posted on 4/9/23 at 2:15 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Logistically, a Crimean offensive would be a nightmare and the personnel costs would be unsustainable. Why commit to the Russian play book and attack all those prepared defenses when it's not necessary? Think of the tremendous casualties the US absorbed in the Pacific by retaking Wake, Truk and Formosa. Yeah. And the outcome was the same.
The Ukrainians only need to do two things: cut the North Crimean Canal and to get their hands on long range missiles to take out the three bridges, airbases and port facilities. When that happens, the outcome is assured. The Russians will start their 120-day fasts while doing nothing for Putin's war effort. They can surrender or they can starve. Just a matter of time.
At the very least, any Crimean offensive could only occur after a significant blockade/siege.
But once Crimea is cut off, Russian forces there will run out of fuel quickly. I don't believe that there are any refineries of any kind in Crimea (and they would be hit if there were), and any fuel depots of size will also be struck.
Russian armored vehicles will run out of fuel long before they run out of ammo (or anyone gets hungry). And as far as food goes, I'm sure that Ukraine would allow a Turkish humanitarian ship to deliver some food to Sevastopol so that civilians in Crimea do not starve to death.
And a Crimean offensive does not necessarily have to include a storming of fortifications at Chonhar and Perekop. This is where those 200 amphibious Rostomak IFVs come in to play, as they could ford the Syvash and turn and attack one of those positions from the rear. Or they could go down the Arabat Spit and then cross over to the Crimean mainland.
Taking Crimea is only hard and costly as long as the Russian military has fuel for its armored vehicles there.
Posted on 4/9/23 at 3:23 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Macron is such a worm.
I told you so. Been driving this point for months. He is worse than a worm. He is a backstabbing pos. He is the type that will slap you on the back and act like he is your best friend. Two faced fraud. He can't be trusted.
DeGaulle was also a very arrogant, difficult person and in many aspects very anti-American. We should have left the French to the Nazi's and followed Churchill's plan and occupied as much of Eastern Europe to blunt the Bolsheviks.
Posted on 4/9/23 at 3:38 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
It’s the French, what do you expect? They’d be saying “Sieg Heil!” right now if it weren’t for us.
Yet Germany is no better. I'll leave that for another time.
Over the last 13 months, the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be more innovative most of Western Europe. Except for profits made and repatriated from overseas, France would be a larger version of Moldova. The government turns a blind eye to bribery overseas and even taxing the profits from it as long as big chunks are repatriated to France.
In response to EU sanctions in 2014, Russia banned EU agricultural imports. Because of ability to sell within the EU, lower cost Eastern European produce was sold for less in France than the UNIONIZED French farmers could grow crops. Thus, the farmer riots several years ago across France. France is tightly controlled by unions in every economic sector and niche of any sector. There might even be a dead poets union!
This post was edited on 4/9/23 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 4/9/23 at 3:39 pm to GOP_Tiger
Those of us who, in late February were worried about Ukraine getting trapped in Bakhmut were right to be worried.
NY Times on the near Ukrainian disaster at Bakhmut:
Leaked Document Shows Dire Nature of the Battle for Bakhmut
NY Times on the near Ukrainian disaster at Bakhmut:
Leaked Document Shows Dire Nature of the Battle for Bakhmut
quote:
he Ukrainian Army was close to losing a key battle of the war. A single, tenuous supply road for Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the streets of the eastern city of Bakhmut was taking fire. A general called the threatened road the “last breathing tube.”
This dire assessment of fighting in Bakhmut, one of the longest running and most lethal battles of Russia’s war in Ukraine, appears in a new batch of classified documents that appears to detail American national security secrets.
The assessment captures only one moment, from late February, in the now 10-month-long fight for Bakhmut, a midsize university and mining town of questionable strategic significance but one that both sides have freighted with political meaning.
quote:
“Ukrainian forces as of 25 February were almost operationally encircled by Russian forces in Bakhmut,” the leaked intelligence assessment noted.
quote:
The leaked assessment said that Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s director of military intelligence, offered to deploy elite units under his command for two weeks to push back Russian troops threatening the supply road. It cited General Budanov as describing Ukraine’s position at the time as “catastrophic.”
Roman Mashovets, an adviser to Andriy Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, also offered a cleareyed assessment in a briefing, the document says.
Mr. Mashovets advised that a single supply road, winding over hills to the west of Bakhmut, remained accessible for the forces inside the city — and that it was under artillery fire.
“Mashovets reported that, for those reasons, the morale in Bakhmut was low, with the Ukrainian forces under the impression that they were almost operationally encircled,” the leaked assessment said.
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