re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Was an interesting series. Don’t understand why the tank kept going back and forth over the trench. Was it simply to destroy it?

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I assume so. On the cynical side, anyone with life signs left didn't have them afterward.

Added to the first video with the tank the infantry got there about 15 minutes late.

isw

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Wagner Group fighters made further advances in central Bakhmut and seized the Bakhmut City Administration Building on the night of April 2. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin raised a Russian flag with an inscription in memory of assassinated milblogger Maksim Fomin across from the Bakhmut City Administration building the night of April 2 and claimed that Wagner “legally controls” Bakhmut, though Ukrainian troops remain in the western part of the city.[1] Russian forces made further advances on April 3, with drone footage posted on April 3 depicting Wagner Group and Russian flags planted over the rubble of the destroyed administration building.[2] Several Russian milbloggers additionally circulated an image of a Wagner fighter standing in front of the Bakhmut City Administration building before its destruction

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Russian authorities are blaming Ukrainian government entities and Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny for the April 2 assassination of Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin, also known as Vladlen Tartarsky. The Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee claimed that Ukrainian special services collaborated with the Anti-Corruption Fund, which Navalny founded in 2011, to plan the attack against Fomin.[4] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that the Ukrainian government may be behind Fomin’s death and claimed that Ukraine has killed others since 2014, such as Daria Dugina, which Peskov spuriously used as justification for the “special military operation.”[5] The Russian Investigative Committee reclassified the case as a terrorist attack and claimed that it was planned in Ukrainian territory.[6] The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) confirmed that the sculpture handed to Fomin prior to his death contained hidden explosives.[7] The Russian Investigative Committee confirmed on April 3 that Russian authorities detained Daria Trepova in a St. Petersburg apartment on suspicion of the attack.[8] Authorities released an excerpt of their interrogation of Trepova, in which Trepova stated that authorities questioned her about giving a sculpture to Fomin, but she did not answer on camera whether she knew the sculpture contained explosives.

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Official Russian responses to Fomin’s death failed to generate a single narrative in the information space and led to disjointed responses from prominent pro-war voices. Several prominent milbloggers and news aggregators fixated on the reported investigation into Daria Trepova and analyzing footage of the lead-up to and aftermath of the explosion.[10] Other milbloggers claimed that the attack was carried out by Ukrainian special services and amplified news of the investigation without offering additional commentary into the situation.[11] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) People’s Militia posted a simple message mourning Fomin without engaging with the Kremlin's informational response.[12] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov claimed that unspecified attackers targeted Fomin because he listened to both the Russian and Ukrainian perspectives, had over 500,000 Telegram subscribers, and effectively organized donation drives for Russian forces.[13] Russian Orthodox Church head Patriarch Kirill connected Fomin’s murder to the ongoing conflict over the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, despite no obvious connection between the two incidents

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As Russian officials try to galvanize an official narrative around the National Anti-Terrorism Committee’s investigation, Russian milbloggers will likely increasingly criticize the results and conclusions of the investigation, and Fomin’s death is likely to become a major point of information space neuralgia. One Russian milblogger and political analyst overtly criticized the official Russian response to Fomin’s death and noted that Russian officials have likely predetermined the final findings of the investigation.[15] The absence of a coherent narrative in the pro-Russian information space is reminiscent of responses to Ukraine’s successful Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensive in fall 2022, when the Kremlin’s propaganda machine initially failed to define a rhetorical line to respond to massive Ukrainian gains and caused an information space breakdown that manifested in disjointed responses across the entire pro-war community

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Russian security services reportedly continue to confiscate the passports of senior officials and state company executives to limit flight from Russia. Financial Times reported on April 2 that the Russian security services seek to prevent senior officials, ex-officials, and state company executives from traveling abroad, indicating that the Kremlin continues to fear elites will flee Russia.[17] Current Time TV and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty-associated investigative project “Sistema” reported on March 10 that the Russian security officials told government officials and employees of state-owned companies to hand over their passports on threat of forcibly revoking an individual’s passports or forced resignation

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Key Takeaways

Wagner Group fighters made further advances in central Bakhmut and seized the Bakhmut City Administration Building on the night of April 2.

Russian authorities are blaming Ukrainian government entities and Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny for the assassination of Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin (also known as Vladlen Tartarsky).

Official Russian responses to Fomin’s death failed to generate a single narrative in the information space and led to disjointed responses from prominent pro-war voices.

Russian security services reportedly continue to confiscate passports of senior officials and state company executives in an effort to limit flight from Russia.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian sources reported on April 3 that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) units received TOS-1A thermobaric artillery systems for the first time.

Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian officials likely remain concerned about a potential Ukrainian threat to Crimea amid continued fortification and logistical efforts.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree establishing a state fund to support military personnel who participate in the war in Ukraine and their families.

Likely Ukrainian partisans used an improvised explosive device (IED) to target a former Russian occupation official in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast.

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Thorne is buried in Arlington along with the remains of the ARVN soldiers that he died with.

?British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 04 April 2023

Russia is likely seeking to sponsor and develop alternative private military companies (PMCs) to eventually replace the Wagner Group PMC in its significant combat role in Ukraine.

This takes place in the context of the high-profile feud between the Russian Ministry of Defence and Wagner Group. Russia's military leadership likely wants a replacement PMC that it has more control over. However, no other known Russian PMC currently approaches Wagner's size or combat power.

Russia likely sees continued utility for PMCs in Ukraine because they are less constrained by the limited pay levels and inefficiency which hamper the effectiveness of the regular army. Russia's leadership probably believe heavy casualties amongst PMCs will be better tolerated by Russian society compared to regular military losses.

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Don’t understand why the tank kept going back and forth over the trench. Was it simply to destroy it?

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He was stuck a couple times. That's got to be a hell of a scary feeling knowing you're a sitting duck high value target.

I still can't believe the tactics they used for that. Fire point blank with the tank, destroy the trench and finish off any survivors with the tracks of the tank, and then send the infantry in after there is no trench left. Has anyone seen a decent explanation of why they chose to go that route?

No need to be rigid. Configure around what you have. I don’t think that’s new with most Ukrainian heavier units.

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Mirages would be a good fit for the Ukrainians simply because it allows Biden to keep to his secret under the table agreement with his masters in China about not providing U.S. aircraft to Ukraine. The Mirage 2000 is still a capable multirole fighter though and there are plenty of airframes available to give to Ukraine, especially if they buy back some of the ones they sold to the UAE. They recently came out and said they weren’t planing to buy them back to send to Ukraine but that is just politician talk up until the point they decide to do it or not. Most of all the Mirage can operate from less than ideal airstrips unlike the f-16. If France doesn’t want to contribute any of their Leclerc tanks then being the country that gives them 4th gen western fighters would be the way to make up for that and then some. They can easily give them 60 Mirage jets which would give the Ukrainians staying power in the air against Russian aviation.

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France is now selling the UAE new Rafales to replace its Mirage 2000s. What do people think is going to happen with those Mirages? The UAE doesn't need them, and they can't sell them without France's permission and support.


Just before this war started, there was an interesting article about those jets in which it was speculated that they might be sold to Greece, Egypt, or Morocco. Such a sale could obviously still happen, but the point is that it's been over a year and it hasn't happened, and the jets are very much available for Ukraine.

Full list:

The Presidential Drawdown is the thirty-fifth such drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine that the Biden Administration has authorized since August 2021.

The capabilities in this package include:

Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
120mm mortar rounds;
120mm and 105mm tank ammunition;
25mm ammunition;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Approximately 400 grenade launchers and 200,000 rounds of ammunition;
11 tactical vehicles to recover equipment;
61 heavy fuel tankers;
10 trucks and 10 trailers to transport heavy equipment;
Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair;
Spare parts and other field equipment.


Under USAI, the DoD will provide Ukraine with:

Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
Nine counter-Unmanned Aerial System 30mm gun trucks;
10 mobile c-UAS laser-guided rocket systems;
Three air surveillance radars;
30mm and 23mm anti-aircraft ammunition;
130mm and 122mm artillery rounds;
122mm GRAD rockets;
Rocket launchers and ammunition;
120mm and 81mm mortar systems;
120mm, 81mm, and 60mm mortar rounds;
120mm tank ammunition;
Javelin anti-armor systems;
Anti-armor rockets;
Precision aerial munitions;
Approximately 3,600 small arms and more than 23,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition;
Seven tactical vehicles to recover equipment;
Eight heavy fuel tankers and 105 fuel trailers;
Armored bridging systems;
Four logistics support vehicles;
Trucks and ten trailers to transport heavy equipment;
Secure communications equipment;
SATCOM terminals and services;
Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.


My take? There isn't much in the way of "weapons" in this package.

This is mostly ammo. It's lots and lots of ammo. I notice things like 130mm artillery rounds, which we have not provided before.

Then there's more logistics and combat engineering stuff.

This is a package for an army that already has the weapons it needs for its upcoming offensive and just needs more ammo to put in those weapons and the ability to supply and maneuver them on the battlefield.

Some more tank and IFV footage of Ukrainians attacking trenches.

https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1643240346086785026/vid/640x360/uP-9lMBQsyiiPRg6.mp4?tag=16