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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/3/23 at 7:51 am to cypher
Posted on 4/3/23 at 7:51 am to cypher
ISW April 2
quote:
ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, April 2. This report discusses the assassination of prominent pro-war Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin (also known as Vladlen Tatarsky) in St. Petersburg on April 2. Fomin was one of the most significant Russian milbloggers with a Telegram platform of 560,000 followers and deep connections with the Wagner Group, the Kremlin, the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), and the Russian nationalists who have been dominating the Russian information space since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Fomin’s assassination at a Wagner-affiliated bar in St. Petersburg may reveal further fractures within the Kremlin and its inner circle. Fomin was a vocal critic of the Russian military command and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Fomin’s death marks the first high-profile assassination of an ultranationalist milblogger in Russia since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
quote:
Unknown actors killed Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin in a deliberate and targeted attack during an event in a St. Petersburg bar reportedly belonging to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin on April 2.
quote:
Russian officials and propagandists have accused Ukraine of staging a “terrorist attack” to assassinate Fomin
Prigozhin oddly stated on April 2 that he would not “blame the Kyiv regime” for the deaths of Fomin and Russian ultranationalist figure Daria Dugina, suggesting that Ukrainian agents were not in fact responsible
quote:
Fomin was a prominent figure in the Russian pro-war nationalist information space, although not more so than some others
Fomin shared his ideology and activities with many other Russian milbloggers, however, and does not appear to have been a target worthy of special attention from Kyiv.
quote:
Fomin’s assassination at Prigozhin’s bar is likely part of a larger pattern of escalating Russian internal conflicts involving Prigozhin and Wagner.
Fomin’s assassination may have been intended as a warning to Prigozhin, who has been increasingly questioning core Kremlin talking points about the war in Ukraine and even obliquely signaling an interest in the Russian presidency, whether in competition with Putin or as his successor.
quote:
Russian officials may be intending to use Fomin’s assassination to drive the self-censorship of a growing Russian civil society questioning the progress of the war in bars.
quote:
The assassination is already deepening a divide within the Russian milblogger space, which may ultimately be beneficial to the Kremlin’s efforts to consolidate control of the information space
quote:
Key inflections in ongoing military operations on April 2:
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.[27] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made marginal gains northwest of Kreminna.[28]
Russian forces continued to attack Bakhmut and its environs.[29] Russian forces likely seized the AZOM plant in northern Bakhmut as ISW has previously assessed. Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike on the plant on April 2.[30]
Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.[31] Ukrainian Tavriisk Direction Forces Joint Press Center Spokesperson Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi stated that Russian forces retreated from unspecified positions in the Donetsk direction.[32]
Ukrainian forces conducted a HIMARS strike against a rail depot in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, the third strike against the city in the past week.[33]
The UK Ministry of Defense assessed that a significant minority of Russia’s 200,000 casualties in Ukraine are due to poor discipline and training outside of combat, including due to excessive alcohol consumption and mishandling of small arms.[34]
Former Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) official Rodion Miroshnik denied ISW’s April 1 report citing Miroshnik that Russian authorities are deporting Ukrainian children to Russia under rest-and-rehabilitation schemes.[35] Miroshnik claimed that mothers and children from Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast went to Russian sanitoriums for medical treatment.[36] Miroshnik denied being closely affiliated with the current occupation regime, claiming that he has not served as advisor to the Head of the LNR for a year.[37] LNR People’s Militia Press Service called Miroshnik “advisor to the LNR Head” as recently as January 29, 2023, however.[38] Miroshnik claimed on his Telegram channel that he served as LNR Ambassador to Russia as recently as November 13, 2022.[39]
Posted on 4/3/23 at 8:36 am to StormyMcMan
Dang, I saw there were six pages of new posts from the last time I had visited and thought there must be some big news.
Nope, Politard troll spamming it up again.
Nope, Politard troll spamming it up again.
Posted on 4/3/23 at 8:40 am to ghost2most
Posted on 4/3/23 at 9:22 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
quote:
“Ukraine has ordered 100 Rosomak wheeled armored personnel carriers from Poland. The payment for these vehicles will be made from the combined EU/US funds that Ukraine can use for such buys,” Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki said.
![]()
UPDATE: There are two versions of the Rosomak IFV, and Ukraine is getting the amphibious kind. The way I understand it, it has light side armor to enable it to float, but there's an easy kit to add side armor back on after, say, a river crossing.
It's easy to imagine how Ukraine might use these vehicles.
Posted on 4/3/23 at 10:05 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It's easy to imagine how Ukraine might use these vehicles.
Lots of river crossings due blown bridges. A bit slow to cross a wide river like the Dnipro and arrive on the other side unscathed.
Posted on 4/3/23 at 10:09 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
100 Rosomak wheeled armored personnel carriers
A poor mans Stryker but still a nice addition.
quote:
getting the amphibious kind.
Oh there is going to be a river crossing, maybe more than one. They have the bridges and 60 of the French amphib IFV.
Posted on 4/3/23 at 11:23 am to NPComb
quote:at least you are accepting it
I'm just one of the putin poli-tards
This post was edited on 4/3/23 at 11:25 am
Posted on 4/3/23 at 11:30 am to Lakeboy7
Interesting story in today's Washington Post on the Nord Steam investigation.
LINK
LINK
quote:
After saboteurs severely damaged the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines last September, German officials zeroed in on a rented sailboat that appeared to have taken part in planting explosive devices deep below the surface of the Baltic Sea.
But after months of investigation, law enforcement officials now suspect that the 50-foot yacht, the Andromeda, was probably not the only vessel used in the audacious attack. They also say the boat may have been a decoy, put to sea to distract from the true perpetrators, who remain at large, according to officials with knowledge of an investigation led by Germany’s attorney general. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to share details about the active inquiry, including doubts about the Andromeda’s role that haven’t been previously reported.
quote:
U.S. and European officials said they still don’t know for sure who is behind the underwater attack. But several said they shared German skepticism that a crew of six people on one sailboat laid the hundreds of pounds of explosives that disabled Nord Stream 1 and part of Nord Stream 2, a newer set of pipelines that wasn’t yet delivering gas to customers.
Experts noted that while it was theoretically possible to place the explosives on the pipeline by hand, even skilled divers would be challenged submerging more than 200 feet to the seabed and slowly rising to the surface to allow time for their bodies to decompress.
Such an operation would have taken multiple dives, exposing the Andromeda to detection from nearby ships. The mission would have been easier to hide and pull off using remotely piloted underwater vehicles or small submarines, said diving and salvage experts who have worked in the area of the explosion, which features rough seas and heavy shipping traffic.
The German investigation has determined that traces of “military-grade” explosives found on a table inside the boat’s cabin match the batch of explosives used on the pipeline. Several officials doubted that skilled saboteurs would leave such glaring evidence of their guilt behind. They wonder if the explosive traces — collected months after the rented boat was returned to its owners — were meant to falsely lead investigators to the Andromeda as the vessel used in the attack.
“The question is whether the story with the sailboat is something to distract or only part of the picture,” said one person with knowledge of the investigation.
Still others allow that the bombers may simply have been sloppy.
“It doesn’t all fit,” a senior European security official said of the fragments of evidence. “But people can make mistakes.”
The German investigation has linked the yacht rental to a Polish company, which is in turn owned by a European company that’s connected to a prominent Ukrainian, fueling speculation from Berlin to Warsaw to Kyiv that a deep-pocketed partisan may have financed the operation. The identity of the Polish company and the Ukrainian individual, as well as his potential motive, remains unclear.
quote:
Some officials said that Ukrainian saboteurs or those from other countries acting in what they felt were Ukraine’s best interest could have attacked Nord Stream without Zelensky’s knowledge, arguing that he doesn’t have complete visibility into all the operations of his government or the military. That kind of plausible deniability could protect the celebrated leader and dampen the political fallout of a brazen attack tied to his country, these officials said.
quote:
For all the intrigue around who bombed the pipeline, some Western officials are not so eager to find out.
At gatherings of European and NATO policymakers, officials have settled into a rhythm, said one senior European diplomat: “Don’t talk about Nord Stream.” Leaders see little benefit from digging too deeply and finding an uncomfortable answer, the diplomat said, echoing sentiments of several peers in other countries who said they would rather not have to deal with the possibility that Ukraine or allies were involved.
Even if there were a clear culprit, it would not likely stop the provision of arms to Ukraine, diminish the level of anger with Russia or alter the strategy of the war, these officials argued. The attack happened months ago and allies have continued to commit more and heavier weapons to the fight, which faces a pivotal period in the next few months.
Since no country is yet ruled out from having carried out the attack, officials said they were loath to share suspicions that could accidentally anger a friendly government that might have had a hand in bombing Nord Stream.
In the absence of concrete clues, an awkward silence has prevailed.
“It’s like a corpse at a family gathering,” the European diplomat said, reaching for a grim analogy. Everyone can see there’s a body lying there, but pretends things are normal. “It’s better not to know.”
Posted on 4/3/23 at 12:40 pm to GOP_Tiger
As we discuss the possibility of French Mirage 2000 fighters going to Ukraine, it's worth noting that Macron yesterday confirmed that France is determined to quickly move to an all-Rafaele fleet of fighter jets. No more different jets for different jobs: moving to a multi-purpose jet to do everything.
LINK
Of course, this transition means that France has lot of Mirage 2000 jets that it rapidly no longer needs.
quote:
On the material side, the president promises more, and better. "We will switch to the full Rafale and maintain this exceptional aircraft at the best world level," said Emmanuel Macron.
LINK
Of course, this transition means that France has lot of Mirage 2000 jets that it rapidly no longer needs.
Posted on 4/3/23 at 12:57 pm to GOP_Tiger
I’ve loaded up my son with as much gear as possible and he will be heading towards the front lines. Anyone who isn’t willing to make the ultimate sacrifice is a coward and a traitor to democracy.
This post was edited on 4/3/23 at 12:58 pm
Posted on 4/3/23 at 1:02 pm to GOP_Tiger
So us there not going to be a Gen 2 Eurofighter? I would've figured they would want to do something stealthy to compete against F35.
Posted on 4/3/23 at 1:18 pm to jfan244888
quote:
So us there not going to be a Gen 2 Eurofighter?
European countries are involved two future fighter jet programs, both in the very early development phase.
Future Combat Air System (FCAS)
Primarily Franco-German 6th gen jet
Wiki Link
Global Combat Air Program (GCAP)
A joint venture between UK, Italy and Japan
Wiki Link
Posted on 4/3/23 at 1:22 pm to jfan244888
The third installment of the fight for the scrub line T, the second installment was the tank firing into the trench line. The tactics were effective if bizarre. The Russians have another near miss on the tank. I assume they were using something like an RPG-30/32 given their straight path and they miss at a fairly short range.
Twitter
Posted on 4/3/23 at 2:27 pm to BritLSUfan
Am I crazy or does that FCAS thing looks like the Black Widow?

Posted on 4/3/23 at 2:38 pm to Obtuse1
There is a new flag pole outside the NATO headquarters in Brussels. What could it possibly be for??? I guess we will find out tomorrow.
Tervetuloa!
Tervetuloa!
Posted on 4/3/23 at 2:50 pm to Obtuse1
The first thing that comes to mind when someone says "Finland"


Posted on 4/3/23 at 3:13 pm to BambiisDead
quote:
The first thing that comes to mind when someone says "Finland"
If you have a chance read:
Born a Soldier, The Times and Life of Larry Thorne. Thorne was a young soldier during the Winter War and earned a battlefield commission to LT. He was a small unit leader at 19 and was so effective the Russians had a bounty on the unit.
He then fought in the Continuation War alongside the Waffen SS who petitioned Himmler to send him to Waffen SS Officer training which he completed and continued to fight the Russians as they approached Berlin.
He escaped to America after the war and bounced around (he was unable to return to Finland because he was an SS Officer) and finally enlisted in the US Army. He joined a new unit the US Army was standing up called the Green Beret. Thorne is a plank holder (original member) of the 10th Special Forces Group started in the 50s.
Thorne received a commission and went to Vietnam as an advisor where he worked with and patrolled with small Vietnamese units. He was very successful. Thorne was killed in a helo crash on his second tour in Vietnam while leading a major operation in Laos.
When asked why he kept at he said "I just enjoy killing communist".
In the John Wayne Green Beret movie there is a scandinavian team member based off Thorne.
This post was edited on 4/3/23 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 4/3/23 at 3:51 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
If you have a chance read:
If anyone is interested in Fin military badasses also check out "The White Sniper: Simo Häyhä". This is the only sniper ever to be considered better than Hathcock. I was going to give a bunch facts about him but if anyone doesn't know who he is spend a minute on his Wiki page.
I yammer on about force multipliers but Simo WAS the force multiplier. He used a rudimentary rifle (iron sights on a Mosin–Nagant variant) in horrific environmental conditions and racked up over 500 confirmed kills (half a freakin battalion). Keep in mind the Winter War only lasted 3 months.
Wiki
He had his jaw blown off right at the end of the war and was believed dead and tossed into a pile of dead soldiers. He was noticed and saved and woke up a week or so later on the day peace was declared.

This post was edited on 4/3/23 at 3:52 pm
Posted on 4/3/23 at 3:57 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
He used a rudimentary rifle (iron sights on a Mosin–Nagant variant)
They gave him a scope and he gave it back!!!!!!!
His Mosin did have the heavy barrel and it was "his" rifle. Meaning it was issued but as a reservist he got to take it home and tinker with it.
Posted on 4/3/23 at 4:23 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
When asked why he kept at he said "I just enjoy killing communist".
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