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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/26/23 at 4:00 pm to doubleb
Posted on 3/26/23 at 4:00 pm to doubleb
quote:
China is holding a lot of cards. Let’s see how they play them.
China excels at playing the long game. What ever they are planning they are not just looking at today and this conflict. They are looking down the road on what suites them the most. Ukraine has mineral resources China needs to continue to grow their economy and Ukraine has the agricultural assets to feed a growing population.
China is trying to decide if a Russia controlled east Ukraine or an EU Ukraine benefits them the most in getting access/control over those resources……
China would love to get front and center action on “rebuilding” Ukraine.
0
Posted on 3/26/23 at 4:06 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Xi has brought Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Syria back into cooperation
I wish him luck with this.
quote:
Xi seems to have solidified a dominant position over Putin on the world stage
Big time.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 4:20 pm to Lakeboy7
Russian channels are reporting that Gen. Muradov, who has commanded Russian troops at Vuhledar, has been dismissed.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 4:33 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
I wish him luck with this.
I think Chinese culture is more similar to theirs in the sense of understanding money and power and pomp and circumstance. The importance of unspoken and implicit respect and power. I think Xi is going to get them basically subjected to him and they won’t know it until it’s happened. Hell the play the game and I think they will find it genuine and welcomed after 100 years of dealing with us in contrast.
Not saying it’ll be perfect or easy, but I think he’s a bout to do it and it will be a big problem for us. I think in the end he and his successor will get more from their method of engaging with the ME than we did.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 4:38 pm to DabosDynasty
Posted on 3/26/23 at 4:42 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
NOW: Fences in front of PM Netanyahu's house in Jerusalem have been breached
Former Israeli Deputy Chief of State: "I call on all representatives of Israel in embassies spread across the globe to resign immediately. Do not serve an illegitimate government."
"Israel's consul general in New York has announced his resignation due to the actions of the Netanyahu government."
LINK
quote:
Dozens of doctors in Israeli hospitals have announced their intention not to come to work tomorrow "due to illness" following the dismissal of Israel's Defense Minister - JPost
LINK
quote:
#BREAKING: Netanyahu is holding consultations on whether to stop the Judicial legislation
LINK
I post all of this to say, anyone know much about the opposition parties in Israel and their views on the conflict? I could see the current Israeli administration dissolving and an opposition party taking over from all of this
Posted on 3/26/23 at 4:43 pm to StormyMcMan
Posted on 3/26/23 at 4:44 pm to StormyMcMan
Probably need a separate thread
Posted on 3/26/23 at 5:15 pm to supadave3
quote:
Interesting video from a soldier operating in the Bakhmut.
Best POV I’ve seen about daily life inside Bakhmut. Really informative.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 6:50 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
While Ukraine is rapidly ramping up its drone program, Russians are worried their capabilities are limited to the work of amateurs
Some images circulating online of Russians pulling some drones out of storage.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 6:53 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Two-part video (high quality) of Russians that have zero understanding of small unit tactics. Admittedly with the eye in the sky the scrub line might not have been as useful as without the observation but still advancing on an entrenched position in the open gets you dead. If you HAVE to do it at least use a bounding overwatch with some organized suppressive fire. It hurts my soul to watch these poor MFers.
Thanks for sharing. I had seen that linked but hadn't watched it.
The eye in the sky means that the Russian attackers needed to move faster -- perhaps they didn't realize that the drone was there. The Russians could have taken the trench, I think, if they hadn't given the Ukrainian artillery time to find them.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 7:05 pm to tigeraddict
quote:
All the be found isolationist talk I the US plays into China’s hands. Rally make u wander I Chinese propaganda is pushing this…..
Makes sense. Hard to know. Maybe the Chinese have learned something about propaganda messaging from Russia.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 7:07 pm to GOP_Tiger
isw
quote:
ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, March 26. This report discusses Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued efforts to seek complete victory in Ukraine, which he appears confident that he can attain over time. Putin seems to reject the idea increasingly prevalent in Western discourse that the current military realities require or support a negotiated resolution of the conflict. Neither Ukraine nor the West has persuaded him that he must consider accepting any sort of off-ramp or compromise settlement. Putin instead remains focused on achieving his initial war aims through protracted conflict in which he wins either by imposing his will on Ukraine by force or by breaking Ukraine’s will following the West’s abandonment of Kyiv. Multiple successful Ukrainian counter-offensives are almost certainly necessary but not sufficient either to persuade Putin to negotiate on acceptable terms or to create military conditions on the ground favorable enough to Ukraine and the West that continued or renewed Russian attacks pose acceptable threats to Ukraine or NATO.
quote:
The outcomes of wars often are, in fact, determined on the battlefield with negotiations that merely ratify military realities. Putin likely has one such example vividly in his mind—World War II in Europe.
quote:
Putin initiated the current war and is the key actor who must decide that he cannot achieve his aims by military power and must instead engage in a negotiated resolution of the conflict if the war is to end in this fashion. The war will protract as long as Putin believes that he can impose his will on Ukraine by fighting or by breaking the Ukrainians’ will to fight following their abandonment by the West.
quote:
Putin continues to make clear by word and deed that he has come to no such conclusion yet despite the failures of his major military efforts this winter. His efforts to freeze Ukraine and Europe into surrendering over the winter came to nothing, and the Russian winter-spring offensives that were supposed to secure the borders of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts are culminating.[1] The Russian military has committed the overwhelming majority of the reportedly 300,000 reservists mobilized in Fall 2022 as well as the 40,000 convicts recruited into the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) into a multi-divisional offensive all along the line in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.[2] The results of that effort are deeply unimpressive. Russian forces gained no significant terrain in Luhansk. Wagner troops have taken part of Bakhmut City and conducted an incomplete turning movement that has so far failed to persuade Ukrainian commanders to withdraw from the Bakhmut pocket.[3] Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces, now reinforced by conventional Russian troops, have conducted a similarly incomplete turning movement around Avdiivka.[4] Offensives against Vuhledar in western Donetsk Oblast have made effectively no gains at staggering costs in manpower and materiel.[5] The Russian milblogger space and Russian, Ukrainian, and Western media are full of discussions of the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive, about which the only real questions appear to be when and where it will occur.[6] This would be an appropriate moment for Putin to conclude that Russia cannot impose its will on Ukraine by force and that he must seek a compromise settlement. He has clearly come to no such conclusion, however.
quote:
Putin is instead doubling down on his commitment to overpower Ukraine militarily and/or protract the war by mobilizing Russia’s defense industrial base and renewing various crypto-mobilization schemes to generate renewed combat power. Putin’s March 25 speech continued a months-long effort to mobilize Russian military industry for a protracted war.[7] That effort and his speech also aim to portray Russia (falsely) as the modern incarnation of Stalin’s Soviet Union able to overwhelm its enemies with unstoppable masses of men and materiel despite Putin’s manifest unwillingness actually to put Russia fully on a war footing. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu began this effort at the end of 2022 and has continued it through this year, and Putin has been amplifying it.[8] The Russians clearly are attempting to mobilize their military industry and will surely generate some improvements. The exaggerated claims and unrealistic goals that Putin and Shoigu have made and set are intended in part to portray greater strength and potential than Russia has. They do not, however, reflect the challenges Russia faces in acquiring essential war materiel in the face of Western sanctions and in shortages of skilled labor. The latter challenge is made more acute by the need for Russia to balance mobilizing young men to fight and keeping them in the workforce.[9] That Putin should be mobilizing Russia’s defense industry now is surprising only in that it took him this long to start. The fact that he is not accompanying this mobilization with any suggestion that he would consider a compromise peace—particularly after Chinese Premier Xi Jinping appeared to offer to help negotiate one during a high-profile and dramatic visit to Moscow—indicates that Putin remains committed to achieving his aims by force
quote:
The continuing of Russian offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka, as well as along the Luhansk and western Donetsk front lines, is a further indicator that Putin remains committed to victory in a protracted war whose outcome is determined in large part by military realities on the ground. These attacks have now become not merely pointless, but actually harmful to Russian preparations for the next phase of this war, which will revolve around the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive. Russian forces may or may not be able to drive Ukrainian troops out of Avdiivka or Bakhmut, but they will gain no significant operational advantage from doing either because they lack the ability to exploit such advances. The Russians appear to have little likelihood of making any gains that are even tactically significant in western Donetsk or on most of the Luhansk line—yet attacks in all these areas continue.
quote:
Putin’s continuation of these Russian offensive operations in the current operational and strategic context amounts to strategic malfeasance. It expends scarce Russian combat power in pursuit of operationally meaningless gains rather than setting conditions to receive and defeat a Ukrainian counter-offensive that everyone appears to expect imminently.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 7:07 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Putin’s stubbornness in clinging to these offensive operations could make sense, however, in a protracted conflict during which Western support for Ukraine wanes or ends. Putin might even mean these operations to set conditions for a negotiated settlement on terms he has already articulated that include international recognition of Russia’s annexation of all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts; Ukrainian “neutrality;” the “de-militarization” of Ukraine; and the “de-Nazification” of the Ukrainian government. He may be pressing his commanders to continue attacks that are increasingly pointless in the short term because he recognizes that he can only hope to make good his claims to unoccupied areas of the four oblasts he has annexed if his forces actually take them. He may, in this sense, indeed be seeking to set conditions for a negotiated settlement. In that case, however, it becomes apparent that he must still believe that he can impose his desired resolution of the conflict on Ukraine and the West by military force—or by convincing Ukraine to surrender—and that he is unwilling to accept a resolution short of his stated aims (which include territories that Russian forces do not yet control) at this time.
quote:
A successful series of Ukrainian counter-offensives, not just one, is thus almost certainly necessary but not sufficient to persuade Putin to enter negotiations on terms other than the achievement of all of his stated objectives. Ukrainian forces must show that they can do what Russian forces cannot, namely change the realities on the ground through military action. They must further damage Russian military power in Ukraine to the point at which it becomes clear to Putin and the inner circle that supports him in this war that the Russian armed forces cannot hope to improve the outcome of the war by continued fighting. Multiple major Ukrainian operational-level victories are therefore likely essential to creating any prospect of a negotiated settlement of the current conflict or forcing Putin to accept unfavorable military realities absent a formal settlement.
quote:
There is reason to expect that Ukrainian forces can, in fact, make gains through counter-offensives. Ukraine has launched two major counter-offensive operations in this war, not counting the voluntary withdrawal of Russian forces from around Kyiv. Both were successful in retaking large areas, first in Kharkiv and then in western Kherson.[11] Various analysts have expressed various opinions about whether Ukrainian forces can penetrate prepared Russian defensive positions and raised other concerns about the prospects for Ukrainian successes. It remains the case, however, that whereas Russian force have demonstrated that they cannot make significant gains at this stage of the war, Ukrainian forces have yet to fail in such an attempt.
quote:
It is far from clear that Putin ever will accept these military realities, however. He may resolve to continue fighting, with or without a pause, as long as it takes to achieve all his aims. His rhetoric and actions, as well as his past patterns, certainly suggest this possibility. A negotiated settlement may therefore be unattainable because Putin will not accept the reality that he cannot actually conquer Ukraine.
quote:
Ukraine and the West will have to create military realities that permit a cessation of hostilities on terms that they can effectively impose on Putin in that case. Ukrainian forces, properly supported by the collective West, can retake the terrain that is strategically vital to Ukraine’s military and economic survival and that would be essential for renewed Russian offensives on terms favorable to Moscow. ISW has assessed the operational and strategic significance of various parts of occupied Ukrainian territory and stands by that assessment.[12] There likely is a line short of the full restoration of Ukrainian control over all of occupied Ukrainian territory that could be the basis for a protracted cessation of hostilities on terms acceptable to Ukraine and the West—but that line is not close to where the current front lines stand.
quote:
It is not a given, nevertheless, that Putin will continue fighting regardless of cost until the day he dies. He has ostentatiously and surprisingly refrained from going all-in on this war from its inception. One can dismiss his failure fully to mobilize and prepare his military before the invasion because he clearly believed that the Ukrainians would not or could not fight. He has passed by multiple moments when moving to fuller mobilization had become necessary, has delayed decisions to implement even partial mobilization for far too long from Russia’s perspective, and even when he has made such decisions has sought to limit their impact on the Russian society and economy.[13] Putin’s Stalinist rhetoric aside, he has shown remarkable concern about the danger of pushing Russia too far and generating a threat to the stability of his regime. Ukraine and the West should not count on Putin’s will breaking by any means, but neither should they dismiss the possibility that he might at some point decide that the costs and risks of continuing the fight are no longer justified by the potential gains.
quote:
Putin is nevertheless putting no terms for negotiation on the table now other than Russia’s total success. He is not taking the military measures that would be prudent were he serious about seeking some negotiated off-ramp or compromise settlement. The current frontlines would set highly favorable conditions for renewed Russian invasions if Putin were offering to accept them as a ceasefire boundary—but he clearly is unwilling to do so.
quote:
The choices before Ukraine and its Western backers at this time are thus relatively straightforward. Ukraine can unilaterally cease fighting even as Russian attacks by ground and air continue, which would lead to disastrous defeat (and which almost no one is advocating). Ukrainian forces can continue fighting in a very constrained way seeking only to hold what they now have, which will encourage Putin to continue his efforts to pursue outright military victory. Or they can launch successive counter-offensive operations with the twin aims of persuading Putin to accept a negotiated compromise or of creating military realities sufficiently favorable to Ukraine that Kyiv and its Western allies can then effectively freeze the conflict on their own regardless of Putin’s decisions. Those are the options facing Ukraine and the West as long as Putin continues to believe that he can impose his will by force of Russian arms over however long a period he is willing to fight.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 7:07 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Key inflections in ongoing military operations on March 26:
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar called for informational silence regarding a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.[14]
Russian milbloggers largely amplified and praised Russian President Vladimir Putin’s March 25 information operations.[15] One milblogger claimed that the deployment of nuclear weapons does not change Russia’s military situation in Ukraine or need to defend against a future Ukrainian counteroffensive, however.[16]
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Svatove-Kreminna line.[17] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian and Ukrainian forces fought 10 battles in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction.[18]
Russian forces continued attacking Bakhmut and its environs and made marginal gains within the city.[19] Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces cleared the AZOM plant in northern Bakhmut.[20]
Russian forces continued attacking along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and made marginal gains within Marinka.[21] Ukrainian intelligence stated that Wagner Group forces may arrive in the Avdiivka direction.[22]
Russian forces continued routine fire against areas in Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[23] Head of the Ukrainian United Coordination Press Center of the Southern Defense Forces Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces in southern Ukraine lack adequate supplies of missiles and drones.[24]
Russian sources reported the formation of the “Uragan” volunteer battalion of the irregular formation 1st “Wolves” Sabotage and Reconnaissance Brigade, which operates in the Avdiivka area.[25]
United Russia Secretary Andrey Turchak announced the proposal of a draft law on March 24 that would allow families of employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) who died in the war to be eligible to receive a one-time housing payment.[26]
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian occupation authorities in Berdyansk in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast are requiring locals to obtain passes from the occupation administration by April 1 in order to move around occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.[27]
Posted on 3/26/23 at 7:36 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The eye in the sky means that the Russian attackers needed to move faster -- perhaps they didn't realize that the drone was there. The Russians could have taken the trench, I think, if they hadn't given the Ukrainian artillery time to find them.
I would have split my unit into two and moved one team into the dry holding pond(?). They could have moved into position with cover and concealment the entire time (red line) and if it held water they could still use the military crest to work their way into position. Then the blue team moves down the backside of the scrub line to get into position for the assault on the trenches. When everyone is in position (blue stopped short to prevent friendly fire) red could do a little recon by fire to determine their numbers and positions. Once blue was informed of the intel red could give one last burst and blue comes running in.
This assumes they are aware of the Uke position. If not they would certainly find out and have to make a plan, but staying on the inside of that scrub line was just stupid.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 7:46 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today
I appreciate these updates, but this was a lie from ISW
that might be their longest novel yet.Posted on 3/26/23 at 9:00 pm to Obtuse1
I think we all knew that the Russian space program was in bad shape, but I didn't know it was this bad.
LINK
A twitter comment about this that I noted: LINK
LINK
quote:
Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has been going on for a year now, and the Russian army’s space systems have not been given sufficient attention during this period. At the same time, we see that Ukrainian armed forces are using commercial satellite services from SpaceX, Planet Labs, Maxar and ICEYE for communication and operational target detection. Paradoxically, in doing so, they have a qualitative advantage over Russia, which has more than 160 satellites in orbit, of which more than 100 are military. This new role of commercial systems as well as their architecture has already outlined the prospect for the USA to rethink its approach to space reconnaissance.
quote:
Today, Russian military satellites orbiting the Earth include 25 GLONASS satellites, 47 communications satellites, 6 satellites of the ECS missile warning system, 7 satellites of the Liana marine electronic reconnaissance system, 3 Bars-M topographic satellites, 2 radar-location satellites, 2 Persona optical reconnaissance satellites and several experimental devices or technology demonstrators. However, three attempts to launch a new generation of optical reconnaissance satellites in 2021-2022 were unsuccessful, and each of the launched satellites quickly became unserviceable.
quote:
And even if we consider the Kremlin’s military plans regarding Ukraine, we can see that Russia has spent a decade on something that simply has no use and is unlikely to become useful in practice. In addition, it has not addressed the need to create space surveillance systems that would be suitable for the land army. The Ukrainian army can use commercial systems to obtain images of any area in high detail at least twice a day in favourable weather conditions, whereas the Russian army can get an image of the same area approximately once in two weeks. We should also add that the existing Russian satellites provide seriously inferior quality of imagery vis-à-vis American and European commercial satellites.
quote:
One year of war has also shown that the Russian army has serious problems with space communications, despite 47 military satellites (formally 52 in March 2020) and the possibility to use the state civilian satellite systems Gonets and Express, as well as Gazprom’s satellite communications system. The main reason underlying these problems is not clear. Possibly, this is due to the low quality and poor condition of most military satellites, except for the four Blagovest satellites which have been built with European components.
A twitter comment about this that I noted: LINK
quote:
I should also mention the prior reporting that their electro-optical imaging sats are de facto blind at night. Presumably due to poor IR, UV, multispectral, and hyperspectral capabilities.
This post was edited on 3/26/23 at 9:33 pm
Posted on 3/26/23 at 10:14 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Saudi Aramco is now beginning construction on a massive refinery in China to support Saudi oil next quarter.
Let's see design and capacities per process unit first.
They spent way over budget on the expansion in Port Arthur design specifically for heavy Canadian crude and original expected completion date of Keystone XL to the terminal where their crude oil is received. It wasn't supposed to be for Saudi crude oil for efficiency
Posted on 3/26/23 at 10:41 pm to GOP_Tiger
Yet another area where Russia is very behind technologically, they are a paper bear.
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