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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/20/23 at 12:14 am to jfan244888
Posted on 3/20/23 at 12:14 am to jfan244888
quote:
One former US Army vet who initially dough for Ukraine has defected to Russia.
That is Johnny Bama, this happened a while ago and was discussed. I posted a long thread about his bizarre actions while with the Ukes several people there commented on him. He was a wildcard and unstable.
1
Posted on 3/20/23 at 12:41 am to Obtuse1
Guy is a complete paint sniffer. The Russians will end up getting tired of him and kill him ir boot him out. He needs to be in a mental facility.
Posted on 3/20/23 at 6:16 am to AU86
quote:
If Putin loses Crimea, he is finished. I have heard some calling for a neutral Crimea, but let the Russians keep the base at Sevastopol
I don't see it. The only way that happens is if the US tells Z to negotiate that. He may be a corrupt, shitty person, but he's not a stupid person. He knows the US is in this deep enough that they can't just back out. He'll push for as much as the US enables him to. If that's full control of Crimea, then he'll fight until the Russians are all swimming in the sea.
Posted on 3/20/23 at 6:27 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 20 March 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Over the past three weeks, Russian forces have made creeping gains around the Ukrainian-held Donbas town of Avdiivka, immediately north of Donetsk city.
The Russian operation has largely been carried out by the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People's Republic; local personnel who will know the terrain well. Avdiivka has been on the front line of the Donbas conflict since 2014; the city is now largely destroyed. The sprawling Avdiivka Coke Plant complex is likely to be seen as particularly defendable key terrain as the battle progresses.
Tactically, the situation is similar to that in the larger town of Bakhmut, further north. Ukrainian forces continue organised defence, but their supply lines to the west are increasingly threatened by the Russian envelopment operation.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 20 March 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Over the past three weeks, Russian forces have made creeping gains around the Ukrainian-held Donbas town of Avdiivka, immediately north of Donetsk city.
The Russian operation has largely been carried out by the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People's Republic; local personnel who will know the terrain well. Avdiivka has been on the front line of the Donbas conflict since 2014; the city is now largely destroyed. The sprawling Avdiivka Coke Plant complex is likely to be seen as particularly defendable key terrain as the battle progresses.
Tactically, the situation is similar to that in the larger town of Bakhmut, further north. Ukrainian forces continue organised defence, but their supply lines to the west are increasingly threatened by the Russian envelopment operation.
Posted on 3/20/23 at 7:36 am to jfan244888
quote:
One former US Army vet who initially dough for Ukraine has defected to Russia.
He was in Antifa and is an avowed communist.
Posted on 3/20/23 at 7:39 am to CitizenK
What is most interesting is Adviika which has been on the frontlines since day one and still not taken by Russia. It fell to Russia in 2014 but then was taken back soon by Ukraine.
Posted on 3/20/23 at 8:20 am to TigerFanatic99
I agree with you regarding Putin and Crimea. He will never relinquish it unless the Russians are completely defeated militarily and by that time he is gone anyway. There is a reason that base is where it is. Deep port, warm water and look at its strategic location. It is located pretty much in the center of the Black Sea. That lets Russia project power any direction and dominate the Black Sea. Losing it would be the greatest strategic defeat/loss for Russia in the past 100 years.
Crimea is the gem. If Putin loses it he is 100% finished. And that scares the hell out of a lot of politicians in the west.
IMO, the threat or the assured possibility of the loss of Crimea is the one thing in all of this that might make Putin do something really stupid. He is in a pickle if the west gives Ukraine the ability/means to take it. If he loses it: he loses his power. If he does something really stupid to keep it: he faces Nato. I think that the west will back off before he faces that situation.
Crimea is the gem. If Putin loses it he is 100% finished. And that scares the hell out of a lot of politicians in the west.
IMO, the threat or the assured possibility of the loss of Crimea is the one thing in all of this that might make Putin do something really stupid. He is in a pickle if the west gives Ukraine the ability/means to take it. If he loses it: he loses his power. If he does something really stupid to keep it: he faces Nato. I think that the west will back off before he faces that situation.
This post was edited on 3/20/23 at 9:04 am
Posted on 3/20/23 at 8:29 am to AU86
Which country needs Crimea more for their survival?
Ukraine or Russia?
Ukraine or Russia?
Posted on 3/20/23 at 8:31 am to AU86
I don’t see long term security in Ukraine unless they take Crimea.
Posted on 3/20/23 at 8:36 am to AGGIES
quote:
Which country needs Crimea more for their survival?
Ukraine or Russia?
Ukraine does. But ask yourself that question in this context:
Who needs Crimea more for survival?
Ukraine or Putin?
This post was edited on 3/20/23 at 8:37 am
Posted on 3/20/23 at 8:56 am to AU86
The EU ammo deal is finally done: LINK
So, a billion Euros will be going to EU states for quick delivery of artillery shells from their own stocks, and another billion for some kind of joint production contract. That could be decisive in the spring offensive, if some of these shells can get to Ukraine right away.
quote:
European Union foreign ministers have approved a EUR 2 billion ammunition package for Ukraine . The Council of Ministers agreed in principle on the joint deliveries, as diplomats announced on Monday in Brussels. The defense ministers should agree in the afternoon.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell proposed the new aid package for Ukraine to the member states. Three things are now important, said the Spaniard: Delivering the ammunition “quickly, cheaply and in the necessary quantity”.
quote:
At Borrell's suggestion, the member states should first deliver ammunition from their own army stocks to Ukraine and can be compensated for this with a total of one billion euros. In a second step, the second billion is to be used to finance a joint procurement of new ammunition for Ukraine.
So, a billion Euros will be going to EU states for quick delivery of artillery shells from their own stocks, and another billion for some kind of joint production contract. That could be decisive in the spring offensive, if some of these shells can get to Ukraine right away.
Posted on 3/20/23 at 9:03 am to GOP_Tiger
How many months did it take for them to get this done? All commitments/funds that the EU promised to Ukraine have been sloooooow!!!!! Usually taking months to get out of that beauracratic nightmare.
Posted on 3/20/23 at 9:48 am to jfan244888
Read that report again: it says that they sent four non-airworthy SU-25s to Ukraine last summer.
Posted on 3/20/23 at 9:56 am to GOP_Tiger
An American assessment of Ukrainian fighter pilots has revealed they would be ready to fly F-16 jets after fewer than six months of training, their commander has told The Times.
In his first interview since President Putin’s tanks crossed the border last year, General Serhii Holubtsov, chief of aviation of Ukraine’s air force, said that two of his pilots had returned to the country last week after a rigorous assessment by the US military.
“They spent three weeks there and were trained on an F-16 simulator how to fly together as two pilots using weapons. The results came out very good: Ukrainian pilots can learn to fly and operate weapons systems on the F-16 in less than six months,” he said.
The Times
In his first interview since President Putin’s tanks crossed the border last year, General Serhii Holubtsov, chief of aviation of Ukraine’s air force, said that two of his pilots had returned to the country last week after a rigorous assessment by the US military.
“They spent three weeks there and were trained on an F-16 simulator how to fly together as two pilots using weapons. The results came out very good: Ukrainian pilots can learn to fly and operate weapons systems on the F-16 in less than six months,” he said.
The Times
Posted on 3/20/23 at 11:03 am to cypher
Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the thirty-fourth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021 and is valued at up to $350 million.
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm artillery rounds;
25mm ammunition;
High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
81mm and 60mm mortar systems and mortar rounds;
AT-4 anti-armor weapon systems;
Grenade launchers, small arms, and associated ammunition;
Demolition munitions and equipment for obstacle clearing;
Mine clearing equipment;
Heavy fuel tankers;
Thermal imagery systems, optics, and laser rangefinders;
Riverine patrol boats;
Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair;
Spare parts and other field equipment.
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm artillery rounds;
25mm ammunition;
High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
81mm and 60mm mortar systems and mortar rounds;
AT-4 anti-armor weapon systems;
Grenade launchers, small arms, and associated ammunition;
Demolition munitions and equipment for obstacle clearing;
Mine clearing equipment;
Heavy fuel tankers;
Thermal imagery systems, optics, and laser rangefinders;
Riverine patrol boats;
Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair;
Spare parts and other field equipment.
Posted on 3/20/23 at 12:19 pm to cypher
quote:
The Verkhovna Rada prematurely terminated the powers of the MP from the European Solidarity faction Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, who is planned to be appointed as the deputy of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Oleksii Honcharenko, Member of Parliament from the European Solidarity faction, announced this on Facebook, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
"The Verkhovna Rada prematurely terminated the powers of MP Mykhailo Zabrodskyi. For - 307. The lieutenant general is returning to military service - he is planned to be appointed deputy of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi," Honcharenko wrote.
This guy is a legend in Ukraine. He led the Great Raid of 2014 that absolutely saved Ukraine from massive losses in the 2014 war, going over 100 miles behind enemy lines. Wikipedia:
quote:
the paratroopers carried out a 470-kilometer raid on the rear of the separatists, and at the same time destroyed three hostile checkpoints.[11] However, the most important achievement was the creation of a corridor for units trapped at the border to retreat. Thanks to the skillful actions of paratroopers and infantrymen, 3,000 people and more than 250 pieces of equipment were able to be evacuated safely
He has not been back in active duty in this war, because he's been serving as an elected member of parliament.
I'm sure that there's more to the story, as he was in Poroshenko's party (Poroshenko was the incumbent president that Zelensky defeated). But whatever the reasons were that have kept him in parliament and out of the armed forces, they are over now, and Lt. Gen. Zabrodskyi is now #2 in the Ukrainian military, Zaluzhnyi's chief deputy.
EDIT: also from Wikipedia:
quote:
From 1989 to 1994 he received military education in St. Petersburg - A.F. Mozhaysky Military-Space Academy, after which he served for five years in military service under a contract in Russia. After returning to Ukraine he began serving in the 95th Separate Airmobile Brigade as a platoon commander.
In 2005–2006, he was a student at the United States Army Command and General Staff College
It blows my mind that Zabrodskyi started his career in the Soviet army and then, much later, spent a year getting trained in the US.
This post was edited on 3/20/23 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 3/20/23 at 1:08 pm to GOP_Tiger
There are currently lots of rumors in Ukrainian social media saying that Ukraine is about to pull out of Bakhmut. I don't think that they are accurate, and I've seen a couple of responses from fighters telling their fellow Ukrainian citizens not to fall for Russian disinformation.
It will be interesting to see what happens in Bakhmut in the next couple of days.
It will be interesting to see what happens in Bakhmut in the next couple of days.
Posted on 3/20/23 at 1:14 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
There are currently lots of rumors in Ukrainian social media saying that Ukraine is about to pull out of Bakhmut. I don't think that they are accurate, and I've seen a couple of responses from fighters telling their fellow Ukrainian citizens not to fall for Russian disinformation.
Besides drones, this is also the war where social media comes of age. Postings like this could be Russian to get them to run and the ruse might also be Russians telling them to stay wanting to catch more of them in a pincer. While cell phones in war zones have uses they also have some serious drawbacks and just like drones militaries are going to have to give serious thought to how they will be and how they will be prevented from being used in war zones.
Posted on 3/20/23 at 1:56 pm to GOP_Tiger
There s at least one video on Reddit from a soldier stating they aren't going anywhere.
Ukraine has poured too much in to just walked away just as Russia is about to stop attacking there.
Ukraine has poured too much in to just walked away just as Russia is about to stop attacking there.
This post was edited on 3/20/23 at 2:19 pm
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