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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/4/23 at 6:59 am to RLDSC FAN
Posted on 3/4/23 at 6:59 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 4 March 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
The Ukrainian defence of the Donbas town of Bakhmut is under increasingly severe pressure, with intense fighting taking place in and around the city. Regular Russian Army and Wagner Group forces have made further advances into the northern suburbs of the city, which is now a Ukrainian-held salient, vulnerable to Russian attacks on three sides.
Ukraine is reinforcing the area with elite units, and within the last 36 hours two key bridges in Bakhmut have been destroyed, including a vital bridge connecting the city to the last main supply route from Bakhmut to the city of Chasiv Yar.
Ukrainian-held resupply routes out of the town are increasingly limited.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 4 March 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
The Ukrainian defence of the Donbas town of Bakhmut is under increasingly severe pressure, with intense fighting taking place in and around the city. Regular Russian Army and Wagner Group forces have made further advances into the northern suburbs of the city, which is now a Ukrainian-held salient, vulnerable to Russian attacks on three sides.
Ukraine is reinforcing the area with elite units, and within the last 36 hours two key bridges in Bakhmut have been destroyed, including a vital bridge connecting the city to the last main supply route from Bakhmut to the city of Chasiv Yar.
Ukrainian-held resupply routes out of the town are increasingly limited.
2
Posted on 3/4/23 at 8:42 am to cypher
Obviously the Ukrainians see some value to holding Bakhmut. Otherwise they wouldn’t be wasting elite units defending it. Either holding it is crucial to their next offensive or losing it opens up a big axis of advance for the Russians.
Posted on 3/4/23 at 8:57 am to cypher
I give Bakhmut 72 more hours at the most. It’s just time now to leave. But I would be laying mines everywhere on my way out and fixing artillery onto the city. I get why they have held out so long because a city turned to ruble makes for one hell of a pain in the arse to attack. The Germans met the start of their end in a similar situation in Stalingrad. But now they can’t really keep their forces resupplied and you don’t want to lose troops with the combat experience some of these guys have from fighting in Bakhmut with a counter offensive coming in the next several weeks.
Posted on 3/4/23 at 9:09 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Obviously the Ukrainians see some value to holding Bakhmut. Otherwise they wouldn’t be wasting elite units defending it. Either holding it is crucial to their next offensive or losing it opens up a big axis of advance for the Russians.
There was no strategic value for either army in Stalingrad back in 1942-43. However, it became a symbol for both armies as they struggled for what was essentially a heap of ruins.
Sometimes human nature gets in the way of sound operational strategy.
Posted on 3/4/23 at 9:11 am to RollTide1987
Has there been any updates on the size of the Ukrainian forces cutoff in Bakhmut?
Posted on 3/4/23 at 9:21 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Obviously the Ukrainians see some value to holding Bakhmut.
The value is how many Russians are getting slaughtered and equipment destroyed. It was Wagner who chose Bakhmut as a target and then Putin had to take it after months of making very little progress. At most it will be a pyrrhic victory for Russia.
Edit: clarity estimates range from 3:1 to 7:1 out of action via wounded or KIA
This post was edited on 3/4/23 at 9:35 am
Posted on 3/4/23 at 9:44 am to CitizenK
quote:
The value is how many Russians are getting slaughtered and equipment destroyed. It was Wagner who chose Bakhmut as a target and then Putin had to take it after months of making very little progress. At most it will be a pyrrhic victory for Russia.
Edit: clarity estimates range from 3:1 to 7:1 out of action via wounded or KIA
Ukraine cannot win by trading body blows with Russia. Russia has the capacity to endure high casualties far longer than Ukraine.
Posted on 3/4/23 at 9:48 am to Darth_Vader
its about making this cost so much that russia will have to revert to doing things that will ruin domestic support
like having to have another round of conscription where dimitri from st petersburg gets drafted instead of khan from sibera
like having to have another round of conscription where dimitri from st petersburg gets drafted instead of khan from sibera
Posted on 3/4/23 at 9:51 am to Darth_Vader
Do we even know what units are defending Bakhmut? I know the 93rd Mechanized Brigade was deployed there earlier but were rotated out. They are one of the few elite formations of the Ukrainian army and was one of the few that actually liberated territories early on.
Posted on 3/4/23 at 9:52 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Ukraine cannot win by trading body blows with Russia. Russia has the capacity to endure high casualties far longer than Ukraine.
Ukraine has to fight Russia somewhere. They can’t just fall back. But they can slowly fall back while taking out men and equipment. As long as they have favorable ratios Igor not at risk for envelopment
Urban combat favors the defensive force. But after looking at the map they are not at risk for being fully cut off. Time to pul back is near.
Posted on 3/4/23 at 9:54 am to tigeraddict
quote:
Ukraine has to fight Russia somewhere. They can’t just fall back.
Ukraine has the luxury of being able to engage the Russians wherever they see fit. They can fall back as far as they want to to gain a tactical advantage.
Posted on 3/4/23 at 9:55 am to WestCoastAg
I don’t think Ukraine would be sacrificing elite units that will be needed for the counteroffensive just to kill a bunch of untrained conscripts and Wagner convicts.
This thread has been predicting that Ukraine would retreat from Bakhmut in 2-3 days for the past 2-3 weeks. It’s possible that the Ukrainian generals know something all the military experts here don’t.
This thread has been predicting that Ukraine would retreat from Bakhmut in 2-3 days for the past 2-3 weeks. It’s possible that the Ukrainian generals know something all the military experts here don’t.
Posted on 3/4/23 at 9:57 am to El Segundo Guy
quote:
Ukraine has the luxury of being able to engage the Russians wherever they see fit. They can fall back as far as they want to to gain a tactical advantage.
If that’s true why are they reinforcing this seemingly insignifiant town and sacrificing some of their best troops in house to house fighting?
Posted on 3/4/23 at 10:07 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Ukraine has the luxury of being able to engage the Russians wherever they see fit. They can fall back as far as they want to to gain a tactical advantage.
If that’s true why are they reinforcing this seemingly insignifiant town and sacrificing some of their best troops in house to house fighting?
That’s a great question and it appears to me that we will find out why really soon.
I’m guessing the fresh troops are going to serve as a rear guard of sorts to enable the Ukrainian fighters inside the salient to escape with their weapons.
Posted on 3/4/23 at 10:08 am to Darth_Vader
Congratulations to Russia on almost surrounding a medium size town after six months of fighting and tens of thousands of casualties.
Bakhmut was never strategically important to either side, but it quickly became a symbolic slugfest. Russia has been bled badly, anywhere between 5,000 and 20,000 KIA in Bakhmut in last 7 months and the defense of the town has played its role in Ukraine’s defense-in-depth strategy to make Russia pay dearly for every inch of land they take, and eventually launch their own counteroffensive like we saw around Kharkiv. At least that’s how the strategy works in theory.
I agree though that Ukrainian ground forces should withdraw now before they suffer too many unnecessary casualties. They’re gonna need every soldier they can get and allowing themselves to get encircled serves no purpose and will lead to another pointless slaughter like when the Russians were surrounded at Lyman. The Russians have no problem in sacrificing more bodies into this meat grinder of a war, just to save face.
Bakhmut was never strategically important to either side, but it quickly became a symbolic slugfest. Russia has been bled badly, anywhere between 5,000 and 20,000 KIA in Bakhmut in last 7 months and the defense of the town has played its role in Ukraine’s defense-in-depth strategy to make Russia pay dearly for every inch of land they take, and eventually launch their own counteroffensive like we saw around Kharkiv. At least that’s how the strategy works in theory.
I agree though that Ukrainian ground forces should withdraw now before they suffer too many unnecessary casualties. They’re gonna need every soldier they can get and allowing themselves to get encircled serves no purpose and will lead to another pointless slaughter like when the Russians were surrounded at Lyman. The Russians have no problem in sacrificing more bodies into this meat grinder of a war, just to save face.
Posted on 3/4/23 at 10:23 am to Breauxsif
Rheinische Post: Rheinmetall in talks to build 200 million euro tank factory in Ukraine
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
March 4, 2023 6:05 pm
German industrial factory Rheinmetall is in talks with Ukraine about building a 200 million euro tank factory on Ukrainian soil, German publication Rheinische Post reported on March 4. The plant would be able two produce up to 400 newly created Panther tanks per year.
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
March 4, 2023 6:05 pm
German industrial factory Rheinmetall is in talks with Ukraine about building a 200 million euro tank factory on Ukrainian soil, German publication Rheinische Post reported on March 4. The plant would be able two produce up to 400 newly created Panther tanks per year.
This post was edited on 3/4/23 at 10:24 am
Posted on 3/4/23 at 10:28 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Ukraine cannot win by trading body blows with Russia. Russia has the capacity to endure high casualties far longer than Ukraine.
IF, a big if, it's 7:1, Ukraine will still be standing when Russia's manpower is gone. Demographics for age is not in Russia's favor. 4:1 is parity
This post was edited on 3/4/23 at 10:29 am
Posted on 3/4/23 at 10:31 am to Breauxsif
Britain is doubling the Challengers 2s they are sending to 28.
Posted on 3/4/23 at 10:31 am to El Segundo Guy
Absolutely. Ukraine is a very big country. Falling back a few miles to a more favorable position means nothing in the grand scheme of things. They bled Russia for the town and when they do decide to pull back they can bleed them some more while they occupy the town with artillery, heavy mortars and HIMARS.
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