- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/3/23 at 8:08 pm to LSUPilot07
Posted on 3/3/23 at 8:08 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
The question is where though. The Russians are betting it’s Melitopol and have put a lot of defenses around it but I honestly don’t think the U.S. and Ukrainian command has made their minds up yet. I believe every option is still on the table with them right now but they want to be prepared for anything.
It's a big front in the south, about 85 miles long, and the distance from the front line to the Sea of Azov is 55-70 miles, depending on where the attack goes.
Y'all help me out here, as I do not have military experience or a lot of theory to draw on, but if Ukraine is going to cut a wedge to the sea, that's going to need to be more than 20 miles wide, correct?
I drew a sample 20-mile thing here to give an idea.
So, the attacking force doesn't really attack in one place, but in two or three that reinforce each other (because the enemy doesn't want to be caught in between).
The operation does not need to take any cities, as the initial objective is to cut the land bridge and establish control to the Sea of Azov, because this then destroys Russian logistics across the south and puts Kerch in range of Ukrainian missiles.
And so, cities would simply slow down the attacking Ukrainian force, so there are really three options:
- as in my map above, to take between Mariupol and Berdyansk
- between Berdyansk and Melitopol
- west of Melitopol, using the Dnipro to protect the flank (this seems least likely)
I'd have to go look for it, but I recently saw a map of all the trenches that the Russian have been digging, and the amount of them around Melitopol is amazing.
Meanwhile, Russia just absolutely destroyed two of its brigades in insane attacks on Vuhledar. There's no way that sector of the front is as well defended as it was a few weeks ago. I know that Russia has a few reserves in Mariupol, but I still think that what I put in gray makes more sense that attacking around Melitopol.
I dunno. I assume that deciding where to attack was what the recent wargames were designed to figure out, but what do y'all think? Am I thinking about this correctly?
1
Posted on 3/3/23 at 8:11 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Planning, and arming, shipping, manufacturing, weapon design, training, etc. The US military is so no doubt identifying weaknesses in their own capabilities daily.
And doing so without losing personnel.
From a pure pragmatic point of view, Russo Ukrainian war is huge for US/western military planning.
Posted on 3/3/23 at 8:22 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
includes 8 tactical bridge layers which are on a M60 tank chassis and can deploy quickly.
Just two weeks ago, the Germans delivered another nine armored bridge layers. Ukraine is getting a whole lot of mine-clearing and bridge laying equipment for this offensive.
Posted on 3/3/23 at 8:24 pm to lowspark12
quote:
From a pure pragmatic point of view, Russo Ukrainian war is huge for US/western military planning.
MDMP
I'll probably have a nightmare tonight
Posted on 3/3/23 at 8:35 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
MDMP
I'll probably have a nightmare tonight
You gonna dream all 7 steps tonight or spread it out over a week?
Posted on 3/3/23 at 8:51 pm to Obtuse1
I always lost interest after MA.
Posted on 3/3/23 at 8:59 pm to lowspark12
The Army war college will be teaching lessons learned from Ukraine in fairly short order.
Posted on 3/3/23 at 9:00 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Just two weeks ago, the Germans delivered another nine armored bridge layers. Ukraine is getting a whole lot of mine-clearing and bridge laying equipment for this offensive.
If I am not mistaken, memory tells me that the German bridge equipment can span a wider river than the American one
Posted on 3/3/23 at 9:20 pm to Lakeboy7
There were a couple of items today on the theory that we have been discussing: whether the continued Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut deprives Russia of the victory it needs for internal PR, which means that the Russian offensive has to continue, which weakens Russian forces by causing possible shortages of men, armor, and ammo -- right before Ukraine launches its own offensive.
First, here's David Axe, writing in Forbes::
Aleksandr Khodakovsky is commander of Russia's Vostok Battalion and a former political leader in the so-called Donetsk People's Republic. He is very worried.
From @wartranslated:
He seems to confirm that a Bakhmut victory is essential for Russian morale. And he gets that a Bakhmut victory is of little strategic value. And he seems less than confident that Russia will have a reserve of ammo to fend off the Ukrainian attack
_________________________________________________
Personally, I wonder if it isn't already too late for Russia. It's mud season now, and so there are many places along the front where it would be extremely difficult to get equipment in.
And Ukraine will probably attack as soon as it's dry enough. But, for a week or so before that, I think that Ukraine will saturate Russian-controlled roads and rails in the south with HIMARS and artillery.
So, I think that Russia might find it difficult to redeploy armor to the south.
I don't know what y'all expect as far as a timeline, but I think that the ground in the south dries out by mid-April, so that's when the Ukrainian offensive kicks into high gear.
But I would guess that the end of March would mark the beginning of shaping the battlefield, attacks on logistics, and then some probing attacks in early April. Ukraine probably does all this stuff in the northeast as well, so that Russia can't leave that area undefended.
First, here's David Axe, writing in Forbes::
quote:
But the Ukrainian general staff isn’t quite ready to give up Bakhmut. “Our defenders fought back attacks in the areas of the settlements of Bakhmut [and] Khromove,” the general staff reported Thursday. And the army is sending reinforcements into the area, Ukrainian deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar said Wednesday.
The reinforcements likely do not include the battalions and brigades that are training to use the hundreds of new armored vehicles that Kyiv’s allies have pledged to the war effort. American M-2 and Swedish CV-90 fighting vehicles. Challenger 2 tanks from the United Kingdom. Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 tanks from Germany, Poland, Canada and other countries.
Those troops and their new vehicles are in reserve for Ukraine’s planned spring offensive. An offensive that could begin as the battle for Bakhmut ends. Bakhmut might be a prelude to the war’s next phase, when it’s the Ukrainians’ turn to attack.
In a boxing match, a fighter might retreat to the ropes in the hope of luring their opponent into throwing ineffective punches and wearing themself out. It’s called “rope-a-dope”—and it’s exactly what the Ukrainians seem to have been doing in Bakhmut.
quote:
The battle for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk so badly depleted Russian formations in eastern Ukraine that, when Ukrainian brigades launched a powerful counteroffensive at the end of August, the Russians were too weak to hold. They retreated from northeastern Ukraine around the free city of Kharkiv, surrendering thousands of square miles of territorial gains.
A Ukrainian retreat from Bakhmut likewise could lead to a wider Russian retreat once the Ukrainians counterattack.
Aleksandr Khodakovsky is commander of Russia's Vostok Battalion and a former political leader in the so-called Donetsk People's Republic. He is very worried.
From @wartranslated:
He seems to confirm that a Bakhmut victory is essential for Russian morale. And he gets that a Bakhmut victory is of little strategic value. And he seems less than confident that Russia will have a reserve of ammo to fend off the Ukrainian attack
_________________________________________________
Personally, I wonder if it isn't already too late for Russia. It's mud season now, and so there are many places along the front where it would be extremely difficult to get equipment in.
And Ukraine will probably attack as soon as it's dry enough. But, for a week or so before that, I think that Ukraine will saturate Russian-controlled roads and rails in the south with HIMARS and artillery.
So, I think that Russia might find it difficult to redeploy armor to the south.
I don't know what y'all expect as far as a timeline, but I think that the ground in the south dries out by mid-April, so that's when the Ukrainian offensive kicks into high gear.
But I would guess that the end of March would mark the beginning of shaping the battlefield, attacks on logistics, and then some probing attacks in early April. Ukraine probably does all this stuff in the northeast as well, so that Russia can't leave that area undefended.
Posted on 3/3/23 at 9:26 pm to CitizenK
quote:
If I am not mistaken, memory tells me that the German bridge equipment can span a wider river than the American one
The spec sheets say the German Biber can lay a 22m bridge, while the M60 AVLB can lay a 19m bridge, so I think your memory is correct.
Posted on 3/3/23 at 9:41 pm to GOP_Tiger
You would at first be a tip of the spear type attack that cuts deep behind enemy lines but it has to be able to have infantry following to consolidate those gains and then you want to push outwards when you can bring your artillery up and more armored vehicles and ammunition. Keeping a strong logistics system is vital. Really to cut off the land bridge from Crimea you’d want to obviously go to all the way to the Sea of Azov and then push to widen the area at least 30 miles so that you aren’t under constant shelling from conventional Russian artillery that just destroys everything to rubble. 30 miles wide would take away any threat of constant shelling. If the Ukes were to pull it off though they would need reinforce that ground gained with a shitload of troops because Russia isn’t going to just give up something that vital. They will eventually try to overwhelm the Ukes throwing cannon fodder like they did in Bakhmut. This would be the best time for Ukraine to then try negotiating because they would be doing so from a position of strength.
Posted on 3/3/23 at 9:43 pm to GOP_Tiger
Something that I've been thinking about lately, what if Ukraine does something totally unexpected.
Ukraine has managed the front lines into a stalemate for months now. For the most part, Russia is fixed in place. What if Ukraine were to take all of that combat power they are readying up and instead of driving a wedge into the Russian lines towards Mariupol...they go through the far east of Ukraine and cut the Russian supply lines inside of Russia. Russia isn't expecting an attack in that direction, most of its remaining combat power is along the southeastern edge of Ukraine.
The two primary supply lines feeding not only the invasion but also Crimea both lie only about 10 miles east of the border in the city of Kamensk.
If Ukraine could execute a flanking attack around the side, it could cut off the entire Russian army.
Interesting to think about.
Ukraine has managed the front lines into a stalemate for months now. For the most part, Russia is fixed in place. What if Ukraine were to take all of that combat power they are readying up and instead of driving a wedge into the Russian lines towards Mariupol...they go through the far east of Ukraine and cut the Russian supply lines inside of Russia. Russia isn't expecting an attack in that direction, most of its remaining combat power is along the southeastern edge of Ukraine.
The two primary supply lines feeding not only the invasion but also Crimea both lie only about 10 miles east of the border in the city of Kamensk.
If Ukraine could execute a flanking attack around the side, it could cut off the entire Russian army.
Interesting to think about.
Posted on 3/3/23 at 9:51 pm to Chromdome35
Mariupol is the option that if I had to put money down is going to be the way they want to go. It’s not the most sensible attack since it’s longer to get to but it would completely devastate the Russian war effort with such a not only strategic but more importantly a symbolic victory after the amazing fight the Azov regiment and other units put up garrisoning themselves in the basement of the steel plant next to the sea. It would take a massive force to accomplish though. Ukraine knows time is most of all NOT on their side so this next offensive needs to be a decisive one that devastates Russia’s goals. It’s now or never for them and I think they will fight like hell for it.
This post was edited on 3/3/23 at 10:03 pm
Posted on 3/3/23 at 10:02 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The spec sheets say the German Biber can lay a 22m bridge, while the M60 AVLB can lay a 19m bridge, so I think your memory is correct.
First, I have not paid attention to which AVLBs are being sent to Ukraine so this information may or may not be relevant.
The Biber and M60AVLB are the older variants from both countries. The Biber is a class 50 bridge and the M60AVLB is a class 60 bridge. Class is roughly related to tons of capacity ie class 50 supports 50 tons without restriction. You can generally go up a class with slow speed restrictions and extra care balancing the load side to side but it isn't something you would do in training only in an actual combat situation.
Both Germany and the US have newer class 70 AVLBs to accommodate the heavier 3rd generation MBTs. The newer German AVLB (forget the name) still has a 10 or so foot advantage over the US M104 AVLB but the M104 is a typical bifold/scissor extension dual span whereas the German one is a three-span bridge that can be employed as 1, 2 or 3 spans. The negative to the German version is it takes much longer to emplace compared to the M104.
I just looked it up the new German one is the PSB 2.
Posted on 3/3/23 at 10:08 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
He seems to confirm that a Bakhmut victory is essential for Russian morale. And he gets that a Bakhmut victory is of little strategic value. And he seems less than confident that Russia will have a reserve of ammo to fend off the Ukrainian attack
Good article. The current narrative being pushed is Bakhmut is some sort strategic hub that is of vital importance, I just dont see that. I think the Russians need a "win" and this is it.
As to why the Ukrainians stayed I think they have better ground to defend and the exchange rate (personnel, equipment) is favorable. Its a drain on resources but the damage inflicted makes it a good investment.
Posted on 3/3/23 at 10:17 pm to Lakeboy7
Russia will of course try to spin Bakhmut as some heroic victory for the motherland but anyone with sense sees that it was a Ukrainian victory all the way. The amount of men and equipment that the Ukes destroyed while holding it for months and months is staggering. They have made Wagner combat ineffective l. If they hadn’t gotten reinforcements from the mobilization of the Russian army they would not have been able to take the city.
Posted on 3/3/23 at 10:48 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Russia will of course try to spin Bakhmut as some heroic victory for the motherland but anyone with sense sees that it was a Ukrainian victory all the way.
For example, I have seen this map floating around on Twitter proclaiming Bakhmut is the road hub in the area. Either the author of the map overlay is being disingenuous or they don't understand Ukraine's road system. If you look on the map below the only major highway in the vicinity is the M03 which is of strategic importance but it runs right across the frontline and remains useful to both after the fall of Bakhmut. The rest are territorial roads and the only one of any significant tactical use is the one that runs to Kostyantynivka to the west but T516 is a better approach road to that city that also runs into Russian held territory. The is no rail in the area. From a GLOC POV I can't make Bakhmut be significantly strategic.
I still think Bakmut is nothing but a Wagner picked target that was big enough to "count" but small enough to take easily. The latter was not the case. Ukraine held it as long as they had a significant advantage in death and destruction given they were in defense. I am not suggesting this loss has no significance at all but it stands proud now just because it is the only "big" thing that has happened in weeks. Had it changed hands during Russia's push or the Ukrainian's counter-offensives in the Summer it would have completely gone unnoticed.
Posted on 3/3/23 at 10:49 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
So, the attacking force doesn't really attack in one place, but in two or three that reinforce each other (because the enemy doesn't want to be caught in between).
The operation does not need to take any cities, as the initial objective is to cut the land bridge and establish control to the Sea of Azov, because this then destroys Russian logistics across the south and puts Kerch in range of Ukrainian missiles.
And so, cities would simply slow down the attacking Ukrainian force, so there are really three options:
- as in my map above, to take between Mariupol and Berdyansk
- between Berdyansk and Melitopol
- west of Melitopol, using the Dnipro to protect the flank (this seems least likely)
I'd have to go look for it, but I recently saw a map of all the trenches that the Russian have been digging, and the amount of them around Melitopol is amazing.
Meanwhile, Russia just absolutely destroyed two of its brigades in insane attacks on Vuhledar. There's no way that sector of the front is as well defended as it was a few weeks ago. I know that Russia has a few reserves in Mariupol, but I still think that what I put in gray makes more sense that attacking around Melitopol.
I dunno. I assume that deciding where to attack was what the recent wargames were designed to figure out, but what do y'all think? Am I thinking about this correctly?
I am in same boat in terms of experience, and was thinking the same regarding Vuhledar as a possible jump off point after the last few weeks, but it would not be a clear run despite what looks to be weaker defences and depleted forces as it means going over higher and narrower country which would limit the ability for fast penetration, width of the drive and being able to easily bypass main transport routes.
Topography of area, white/red areas are about 250-300m in elevation for reference
While a big front those hilly areas create issues in being able to penetrate quickly and widely enough over a large portion of it. I posted a while ago about an initial drive to Melitopol but then a push east through Tokmak and on to Berdyansk. Despite the stiffened defences I still think it's the most viable method as they don't need to take Melitopol immediately and in reality they can bypass Tokmak if too well fortified, just isolate it and get to the Sea of Azov to be able to cut supplies to Crimea and the western held areas.
Of course with longer range munitions they could try to take out the Kerch bridge initially as well which reduces the need for speed though the impact of neutralising it and tearing through the Russian lines would probably make the Russian talking heads overdose on copium and have a compounding effect on both sides morale.
I can see Vuhledar and using/crossing the Dnipro as other axis or false offensives to keep the Russians on the back foot but that assumes Ukraine has the manpower and equipment in place to be able to exploit them effectively.
I am sure the decision makers have been through endless theory crafting over the winter and I don't envy them, it will be tough regardless of the direction.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 3/3/23 at 10:53 pm
Posted on 3/4/23 at 6:22 am to OutsideObserver
I see an offense in the south in the zaphoria region headed south and just to the east of Tokmak
You take a smaller bite. Farther east and have a much longer supply line and you have enemy of east and west
I think if you go east of Tokmak and drive to the sea, troops on the east back in Kherson area fall back to crimeria as their GLOC are cut by long range artillery and they are at risk of envelopment. Crimeria is still in range.
However I think you will see more than one offensive location. I see another in the Kharkiv region making a push east.
You take a smaller bite. Farther east and have a much longer supply line and you have enemy of east and west
I think if you go east of Tokmak and drive to the sea, troops on the east back in Kherson area fall back to crimeria as their GLOC are cut by long range artillery and they are at risk of envelopment. Crimeria is still in range.
However I think you will see more than one offensive location. I see another in the Kharkiv region making a push east.
Page 2489 of 5046
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News