re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Ukraine offensive(s) fail in significantly pushing the Russians out, the military and political repercussions will be interesting to say the least.

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Sarcasm baw. This is the OT I thought that the meet me at Sonic would have made that obvious.

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my bad. didnt know cause you were all fired up this morning

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I’m not sure but he has participated in training exercises with NATO in 2019 and again in 2021 and had been exposed to the Abrams and says he had been talking with American, British, and Polish tankers picking their brains about western MBTs and tank warfare in general for months.

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i think the plan you laid out in your other thread will prolly work but its going to take time for sure.

The reason that Putin quit even talking about nukes was that China and India indicated that the consequences would likely be a complete and instant economic blockade. The Russian economy would instantly crash, NATO would destroy many Russian military installations with conventional weapons, and Putin would be quickly thrown out a window.

There is absolutely no path where "tactical nukes" help Putin win. So, he almost certainly won't use them.


EDIT: I wish we didn't have to go over this every week.

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then how the hell do you see this ending?

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After Ukraine completes its march to the Sea in May, that puts almost all of Crimea in HIMARS range (certainly in GLSDB range), which imperils the Russian military bases there. Ukraine starts destroying a lot of Russian military capability in Crimea while also simultaneously pushing towards Mariupol with all this NATO equipment. The loss of their supply lines in Crimea means that Ukrainian forces can jump the Dnipro in Kherson and push Russia back into Crimea itself.

All this happens in June, which is also when a new push in the northeast starts, which takes Starobilsk and also "turns the corner and liberates Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

At this point, in late summer, with his forces in retreat and lots of Russian dead, with the functional loss of his Crimean bases and the impending threat to the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, with the first deliveries of F-16s, Abrams, and ATACMS beginning to wreak havoc, Putin says that he wants to negotiate.

What does the final deal look like? Who knows? Something like UN-monitored, demilitarized independence for Crimea, with Russians who settled there after 2014 forced to leave. Russia would accept that the full Donbas region would be officially Ukraine, and Ukraine would make the oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk semi-autonomous, with rights of Russian-speakers officially protected (probably with the understanding that Russian could be an official language in those oblasts for the next 15-20 years).


This is just all my guesses. But you asked what they were.

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After Ukraine completes its march to the Sea in May, that puts almost all of Crimea in HIMARS range (certainly in GLSDB range), which imperils the Russian military bases there. Ukraine starts destroying a lot of Russian military capability in Crimea while also simultaneously pushing towards Mariupol with all this NATO equipment. The loss of their supply lines in Crimea means that Ukrainian forces can jump the Dnipro in Kherson and push Russia back into Crimea itself.

All this happens in June, which is also when a new push in the northeast starts, which takes Starobilsk and also "turns the corner and liberates Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

At this point, in late summer, with his forces in retreat and lots of Russian dead, with the functional loss of his Crimean bases and the impending threat to the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, with the first deliveries of F-16s, Abrams, and ATACMS beginning to wreak havoc, Putin says that he wants to negotiate.

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I could 100% seeing this, i think it will take longer than summer though

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What does the final deal look like? Who knows? Something like UN-monitored, demilitarized independence for Crimea, with Russians who settled there after 2014 forced to leave. Russia would accept that the full Donbas region would be officially Ukraine, and Ukraine would make the oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk semi-autonomous, with rights of Russian-speakers officially protected (probably with the understanding that Russian could be an official language in those oblasts for the next 15-20 years).

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i could see all of this, i just see putin as a wild card, here is why

1) if the above happens he is either killed or about to be ousted

2) looking at an almost certian loss of power/death....not sure how he will handle it.

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This is just all my guesses. But you asked what they were.

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hopefully others chime in too

Timing I’m not sure but those outcomes are definitely reasonable.

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Putin is the wild card. If GOP’s prediction comes to fruition, that means Russia will be on the ropes by this Summer. What will Putin do if confronted with, not only a battlefield defeat, but the complete loss of Crimea? While I doubt his ability to project significant nuclear power to Europe, much less America, they for sure could hit Ukraine. And while threats from China and India may have kept him in check thus far. Would Putin still think as rationally if he’s faced with the complete collapse of his regime? Or would he, in desperation, grasp at whatever straw he could to stave off the reckoning that would follow?

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hopefully others chime in too

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Nobody knows what will happen under severe threat, but what do we actually know so far? My take is that Putin has used threats to coerce many heads of state out of fear over “what he might do”.

So he gets the familiar Capitulation and concessions, from a policy of appeasement.

But when tasked with actually backing up threats with military action, we have seen his army struggle on the battlefield.

So if the fear of what he might do persists, who’s to say that this conversation stops with Ukraine?

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"Jesus is going to come back and lead our troops to victory.

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At the same time as seizing regions, militants plundered stocks of Western artillery.
It is thought Taliban fighters may have stolen as many as half a million US weapons and up to 50,000 vehicles.

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If we had only known we were leaving Afghanistan...