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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/6/23 at 11:21 am to cypher
Posted on 1/6/23 at 11:21 am to cypher
From today's WSJ:
As the article says, even though NATO-manufactured main battle tanks have not yet been provided to Ukraine, it is only a matter of time. An official request from Poland to provide Leopards would not be denied by Germany, and that is likely forthcoming. And the UK is hinting that it's ready to send Challengers.
In my opinion, the reason that AMX-10s, BFVs, and Marders were announced NOW is so that other partner nations can examine their inventories and prepare their gifts to announce at Ramstein later this month. NATO-manufactured MBTs will be heading to Ukraine, and they are going to have a huge impact. And if Poland eventually wants to give Ukraine 240 Leopards by itself ...
Think about it: it really doesn't matter now whether Ukraine officially joins NATO or not. It's quickly becoming a NATO military power. And the end of this war, it will have an army stuffed with NATO vehicles that could be as powerful as any NATO army besides the US.
And, in a few years, if Russia were to invade Poland or one of the Baltics? Ukraine would immediately rush to their aid. It's already an unofficial member of NATO.
quote:
Poland gave Ukraine more than 240 modernized Soviet-type tanks early in the war. Now, Poland is considering a request from Ukraine to donate its German-made Leopard main battle tanks, a senior Polish diplomat said.
“They are for real considering giving anything just to help Ukraine,” said a Czech official closely involved in helping ship western arms into Ukraine, who confirmed that request.
The Leopards are much more heavily armored, and more protected against antitank weapons, than the vehicles France, Germany, and the U.S. have so far offered.
Poland has more than 240 Leopard tanks, enough for two tank brigades, and plans to eventually unload all of them, said Slawomir Debski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, a Warsaw think tank close to the Polish government. The pace at which it could give those to Ukraine depends on how quickly Poland receives replacement tanks it has ordered from manufacturers in South Korea and the U.S., he said. Berlin would also need to approve.
“It’s a question of not if, but when,” said Mr. Debski, adding that the Western reluctance to provide tanks was finally diminishing after months of diplomatic pressure. “It’s exactly something Poland has argued for, for many months.”
As the article says, even though NATO-manufactured main battle tanks have not yet been provided to Ukraine, it is only a matter of time. An official request from Poland to provide Leopards would not be denied by Germany, and that is likely forthcoming. And the UK is hinting that it's ready to send Challengers.
In my opinion, the reason that AMX-10s, BFVs, and Marders were announced NOW is so that other partner nations can examine their inventories and prepare their gifts to announce at Ramstein later this month. NATO-manufactured MBTs will be heading to Ukraine, and they are going to have a huge impact. And if Poland eventually wants to give Ukraine 240 Leopards by itself ...
Think about it: it really doesn't matter now whether Ukraine officially joins NATO or not. It's quickly becoming a NATO military power. And the end of this war, it will have an army stuffed with NATO vehicles that could be as powerful as any NATO army besides the US.
And, in a few years, if Russia were to invade Poland or one of the Baltics? Ukraine would immediately rush to their aid. It's already an unofficial member of NATO.
This post was edited on 1/6/23 at 11:30 am
2
Posted on 1/6/23 at 12:33 pm to GOP_Tiger
Perun had a video a month ago:
Polish Military Modernization
It talks about why Poland decided to modernize their military with Korean designed tanks that are mostly on the drawing boards and unproven. From what I remember the speculation is that Poland is doing this mostly because the Koreans are going to hand over the technology to Poland and let them build their own tanks. Poland has a huge budget for this so Leopard will be obsolete for them at some point. In the interim the most logical thing to do is send their Leopards to Ukraine and let them kill Russian tanks. For the next few years Russia is the only real threat to the Polish military, so why not?
Polish Military Modernization
It talks about why Poland decided to modernize their military with Korean designed tanks that are mostly on the drawing boards and unproven. From what I remember the speculation is that Poland is doing this mostly because the Koreans are going to hand over the technology to Poland and let them build their own tanks. Poland has a huge budget for this so Leopard will be obsolete for them at some point. In the interim the most logical thing to do is send their Leopards to Ukraine and let them kill Russian tanks. For the next few years Russia is the only real threat to the Polish military, so why not?
Posted on 1/6/23 at 12:43 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
In my opinion, the reason that AMX-10s, BFVs, and Marders were announced NOW is so that other partner nations can examine their inventories and prepare their gifts to announce at Ramstein later this month. NATO-manufactured MBTs will be heading to Ukraine, and they are going to have a huge impact. And if Poland eventually wants to give Ukraine 240 Leopards by itself ...
Baby steps, just like other weapons systems. Even if the ground freezes no extensive maneuvering is happening until spring so all the prep for giving the Ukes these things is happening now.
Regarding armor the Poles are getting Abrams for everything they have given over. The goal is that their armory is westernized in a decade or so. Aircraft, armor, support vehicles, everything.
Posted on 1/6/23 at 1:50 pm to Tigris
quote:
It talks about why Poland decided to modernize their military with Korean designed tanks that are mostly on the drawing boards and unproven.
The heavier Abrams are for open ground, Korean tanks are lighter tanks and for hills/mountains. He discussed this in the video.
Posted on 1/6/23 at 2:14 pm to CitizenK
Here's the full list of today's $2.8 billion in aid:
- 50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles with 500 TOW anti-tank missiles and 250,000 rounds of 25mm ammunition;
- 100 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
- 55 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
- 138 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
- 18 155mm self-propelled Howitzers and 18 ammunition support vehicles;
- 70,000 155mm artillery rounds;
- 500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
- 1,200 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
- 36 105mm towed Howitzers and 95,000 105mm artillery rounds;
- 10,000 120mm mortar rounds;
- Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
- RIM-7 missiles for air defense;
- 4,000 Zuni aircraft rockets;
- Approximately 2,000 anti-armor rockets;
- Sniper rifles, machine guns, and ammunition for grenade launchers and small arms;
- Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
- Night vision devices and optics;
- Spare parts and other field equipment.
If you add the BFVs, the M113s, the MRAPs, the HMMWVs, the SPGs, and the artillery, you get about 400 pieces of weaponry. You could outfit the entire army of a lot of nations with this batch of aid.
DoD Press Release
- 50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles with 500 TOW anti-tank missiles and 250,000 rounds of 25mm ammunition;
- 100 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
- 55 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
- 138 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
- 18 155mm self-propelled Howitzers and 18 ammunition support vehicles;
- 70,000 155mm artillery rounds;
- 500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
- 1,200 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
- 36 105mm towed Howitzers and 95,000 105mm artillery rounds;
- 10,000 120mm mortar rounds;
- Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
- RIM-7 missiles for air defense;
- 4,000 Zuni aircraft rockets;
- Approximately 2,000 anti-armor rockets;
- Sniper rifles, machine guns, and ammunition for grenade launchers and small arms;
- Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
- Night vision devices and optics;
- Spare parts and other field equipment.
If you add the BFVs, the M113s, the MRAPs, the HMMWVs, the SPGs, and the artillery, you get about 400 pieces of weaponry. You could outfit the entire army of a lot of nations with this batch of aid.
DoD Press Release
This post was edited on 1/6/23 at 2:28 pm
Posted on 1/6/23 at 2:17 pm to GOP_Tiger
God bless America! Amirite?
Posted on 1/6/23 at 2:25 pm to GOP_Tiger
I just caught the press conference and heard this. A lot more than 50 Bradleys.
Posted on 1/6/23 at 2:28 pm to CitizenK
quote:
A lot more than 50 Bradleys.
First tranche
Posted on 1/6/23 at 2:41 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Baby steps, just like other weapons systems. Even if the ground freezes no extensive maneuvering is happening until spring so all the prep for giving the Ukes these things is happening now.
How long does it take to train a tank crew on the Leopard? Assuming the crews are already experienced, but in Soviet-type tanks.
Regarding the spring - wouldn’t that bring the return of rasputitsa when the snow melts and the ground thaws?
Posted on 1/6/23 at 3:59 pm to lostinbr
The Hidden Battle that saved Ukraine- youtube
Fascinating story/report regarding the Battle of Hostomel Airport. Many facts that I had not heard before.
Fascinating story/report regarding the Battle of Hostomel Airport. Many facts that I had not heard before.
Posted on 1/6/23 at 4:03 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
- 138 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
I get that during occupation of Iraq these are not the best vehicles but high clearance with low center of gravity should make them great in fire and movement.
A friend's son had just returned from Desert Storm complaining that as a Marine on the fake landing force he didn't get to shoot at anything with his TOW on a Humvee so shot at a couple of Iraqis behind a berm the last day we were in combat.
Posted on 1/6/23 at 4:09 pm to AU86
General Staff: Ukraine hits temporary Russian base in Kherson Oblast, up to 100 soldiers injured
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
January 6, 2023 8:03 pm
On Jan. 5, Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on a temporary base of Russian troops in Havrylivka Druha, a village in Kherson Oblast near the Russia-occupied Crimean peninsula, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on Jan. 6.
“Currently, it is known that up to 100 wounded (Russian) soldiers were brought to local hospitals,” the General Staff said, adding that the number of killed Russian troops is being clarified.
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
January 6, 2023 8:03 pm
On Jan. 5, Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on a temporary base of Russian troops in Havrylivka Druha, a village in Kherson Oblast near the Russia-occupied Crimean peninsula, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on Jan. 6.
“Currently, it is known that up to 100 wounded (Russian) soldiers were brought to local hospitals,” the General Staff said, adding that the number of killed Russian troops is being clarified.
This post was edited on 1/6/23 at 4:10 pm
Posted on 1/6/23 at 4:24 pm to cypher
It may be safer as a Russian to be on the front lines. At least there you know to look for incoming…….
Posted on 1/6/23 at 5:21 pm to CitizenK
quote:
- 138 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
I get that during occupation of Iraq these are not the best vehicles but high clearance with low center of gravity should make them great in fire and movement.
Ukraine used them to good effect in the Kharkiv offensive. Once the initial breakthrough had been accomplished with the tanks and heavy armor, Humvees went many miles ahead in several directions, just four guys with a Javelin and a few mines. They could scout, shoot at an armored vehicle with the Javelin if threatened, and mine a road that Russia might use to try to bring in reinforcements.
But, yeah, Ukrainian units are constantly begging for pickup trucks to get around in. Humvees are obviously going to offer a lot more protection than a pickup.
Posted on 1/6/23 at 5:37 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
If you add the BFVs, the M113s, the MRAPs, the HMMWVs, the SPGs, and the artillery, you get about 400 pieces of weaponry.
It must feel like Christmas in Kiev.
Posted on 1/6/23 at 5:38 pm to GOP_Tiger
Some police chief in a 100 person town is going to be real mad some of these surplus toys are going to Ukraine instead of his playground, I mean police station. 
Posted on 1/6/23 at 5:55 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
Some police chief in a 100 person town is going to be real mad some of these surplus toys are going to Ukraine instead of his playground, I mean police station.
They take a LOT of fuel and maintenance cost is high, so not really. Might make them look tough when parked outside though. MRAP gets 3 MPG.
This post was edited on 1/6/23 at 5:57 pm
Posted on 1/6/23 at 5:55 pm to Mr Happy
The bad news today is that Russia actually made a little progress north of Bakhmut, taking at least half of Soledar. Russia has apparently put some of its best units in this area to assist Wagner. If Russia can finish taking Soledar, they can truly threaten to cut off Bakhmut, and Ukraine's presence in the city will get dicey.
It bears repeating that Bakhmut itself is no strategic prize. It's just literally the hill that Russia has chosen to die on.
From @War_Mapper:
It bears repeating that Bakhmut itself is no strategic prize. It's just literally the hill that Russia has chosen to die on.
From @War_Mapper:
quote:
Russian forces have advanced north of Bakhmut taking full control of Bakhmuts'ke. Pidhorodne is now contested.
This post was edited on 1/6/23 at 6:53 pm
Posted on 1/6/23 at 6:43 pm to GOP_Tiger
Retired General Mark Hertling would know:
Read his thoughts on exactly how Bradleys will help Ukraine. I don't want to quote the whole article, but it's worth reading.
quote:
As a tanker who fought in a Bradley during Operation Desert Storm, as an assistant division commander for support for a tank division during Operation Iraqi Freedom, and as an armored division commander in northern Iraq in 2007-8, I can say that the fighting systems are important, but supporting them is critical.
Read his thoughts on exactly how Bradleys will help Ukraine. I don't want to quote the whole article, but it's worth reading.
Posted on 1/6/23 at 7:42 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Night vision devices and optics;
I don't remember them getting night vision stuff before. Could be huge depending how much is in the package. I think Russia's night capability is next to zero.
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