re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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On Telegram, there are multiple Russian "milbloggers" that provide running commentary about the war from a pro Russian perspective. Rybar, Kotsnews, Grey Zone (Wagner run), etc... It's the equivalent of the pro-Ukrainian milbloggers on twitter.

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So what’s the difference between a “milblogger” and a blogger? Is that short for military blogger?

Ah. Ok. I’m an old man and struggle to keep up with the current jargon.

You and me both brother

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AMX-10RC

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any of you Desert Storm guys want to chime in on this vehicle? I've read that it performed well in that conflict.

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I can't say specifically about the AMX-10RC but I fought along side the French and they were every effective. That was the French 6th light division in Desert Storm. They were on the far west flank and my unit was just to the east of them. We were a lighter unit and were in support of them with the objective of As Salman and the airbase there. They were ahead of us and ran into either the Iraqi 45th or 48th mech infantry and kicked the shite out of them and took about a battalions worth of prisoners. They took out a bunch of Iraqi tanks so their armor must have been effective. Together with them, we rendered 5 Iraqi mech divisions combat ineffective but in fairness, more than half of them were waving white flags or running full tilt in the opposite direction.

I never saw one of the AMX-10RCs fire (they also had another similar "tank") but their outcome indicates they were indeed effective for the French and I didn't see them littering the battlefield either burnt out or broken down. We head Sheridans as our tank and I remember the commanders being envious of the French light wheeled tanks as they were faster and better armed at least in their opinion.

Here's a German article indicating that heavy armor for Ukraine (likely Leopard 2 main battle tanks) could be announced at the next Ramstein meeting at the middle of this month (I could not find any announcement of a date).

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"Following the statements from Paris and Washington, we are continuing to consult intensively with our allies in the USA and France about further support for Ukraine," government circles said on Thursday.

In this context, the federal government referred to the Tagesspiegel “in particular to the next meeting in the Ramstein format in mid-January”.

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Now the next meeting of this round should apparently be the time by which the federal government wants to clarify possible German main battle tank deliveries. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) had not rejected this in principle, but had always pointed out that the German side would "not go it alone" on this issue. According to Macron and Biden, that would no longer be the case. However, there is no such decision yet.

France's decision "should bring more movement into the German discussion again," says SPD defense politician Andreas Schwarz to the "Spiegel" . "It's a way to coordinate with Western partners the next level of support for Ukraine. Germany should take the initiative as further shipments will require a lead in training and supply chain building.”

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"With the French government's announcement that it would deliver reconnaissance tanks, the argument of going it alone has finally been reduced to absurdity," Anton Hofreiter, member of the Greens in the Bundestag, told the magazine. "Scholz has to end his blockade now." The chancellor's office said the time had come "now at the latest" to deliver Leopard 2 tanks, "preferably as a European initiative".

The Greens defense expert Sara Nanni told the "Süddeutsche Zeitung ": "We should make available to Ukraine what is feasible, including leopards and martens from industrial stocks." The decision from France was good.

The chair of the defense committee, the FDP politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, also told the AFP news agency that the Chancellor should now “in the spirit of Franco-German friendship finally recognize the signs of the times and follow suit – the ball is now in Berlin. "

"The argument constantly advanced by the Federal Chancellery that Germany should not go it alone is absolutely passé," she told the AFP news agency.

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West Germany had over 2000 Leopard 2 tanks when the Berlin Wall fell, and they ended up selling most of them off. Germany only had 266 in service as of 2020, but they are finally again adding more. But, that selloff means that a huge number of partner nations have Leopard 2 MBTs, including Canada, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, Greece, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, and Turkey.

Presumably, at Ramstein, a number of those other nations would also agree to donate Leopards and/or assist with training, parts, and repairs.

We have talked about it before, but the Leopard 2 is a better tank for Ukraine than the M1 Abrams, because the Abrams uses too much fuel and is too heavy for many Ukrainian bridges, and Ukraine's logistics are already too strained as it is.

But, of course, British Challenger and French LeClerc tanks could also go to Ukraine.

My question is: how quickly can Ukraine actually field Leopards, Bradleys, etc.? In the north, the ground should freeze by Monday and will be frozen for a while, but I think that Ukraine will not get all this Western armor until after the mud season returns.

Putin asking for a ceasefire on the Orthodox Christmas?

He needs to slow things down. Hope the Ukes dont bite

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They were given M113s early on and most were fitted with TOW launchers. They did very well when things were fluid.

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Correct. The only problem is they were not given enough. According to wikipedia Ukraine received around 300 M113s last year. Ukraine has < 1500 BMPs and < 100 BTRs. That made it hard for them to keep enough troops in support of their armor.

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Given enough numbers the Brads could be a game changer especially in urban areas.

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For once the USA and NATO are being proactive in the aid that they are giving or thinking about giving to Ukraine. Ukraine is not in a position to attack a Russian occupied city right now due to the lack of IFVs and APCs. Ukraine can manuever and flank Meltipolol which will likely cause the Russians to flee. Ukraine can also manuever and cut off Severodonetsk and force the Russians to flee or be pounded into oblivion by Ukrainian artillery on the west side of the SD river. However, it will have to go into and fight if it wants to regain control of Donetsk city, Luhansk city, and Mariupol. Ukraine will needs at least around 1000 IFVs and APCs to be able to attack those cities. The Bradley's would be much more helpful taking those cities than the M113s because the M113 doesn't have a turret and gun like the Bradley. However, we need to keep sending M113s as well.

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The Russian Orthodox Church and Moscow Patriarch Kirill are all in supporting the war and the genocidal attacks on Ukraine. frick them.

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Ukraine seems to agree with you (bolded part below)

LINK

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Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a 36-hour ceasefire in Ukraine to observe Orthodox Christmas over the weekend.

“Based on the fact that a large number of citizens professing Orthodoxy live in the combat areas, we call on the Ukrainian side to declare a cease-fire and give them the opportunity to attend services on Christmas Eve, as well as on the Day of the Nativity of Christ,” Putin’s order, published on the Kremlin’s website, reads.

Putin called for the ceasefire “along the entire line of contact between the parties in Ukraine” and requested it last from noon on Friday through Saturday.

The order comes after the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, called for a ceasefire during the holiday weekend. In the Kremlin statement, Putin said he was taking into account Kirill’s request.

There was no immediate word from the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky, criticized the ceasefire request from Kirill early on Thursday, saying the Russian Orthodox Church acts as a “propagandist of war.”

“The Russian Orthodox Church has called for the genocide of Ukrainians, encouraged mass murders, and insists on even greater militarization of the Russian Federation,” Podolyak tweeted. “Therefore, the statement of the Russian Orthodox Church about the ‘Christmas truce’ is a cynical trap and an element of propaganda.”

Putin also discussed a settlement in the war on Thursday with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to a readout from the Kremlin.

The Turkish leader expressed a desire to mediate a political settlement of the conflict and Putin “reaffirmed Russia’s openness to a serious dialogue,” adding that Ukraine must “take into account new territorial realities.”

Ukraine called for a 10-point peace proposal last month, including the complete withdrawal of troops from his country.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at the time that “Kyiv is not ready for dialogue” in response to the proposal.

“We will not talk to anyone under such conditions,” Lavrov said in an interview with state media last month.

Putin’s new call for a ceasefire comes after a deadly New Year’s Eve strike on a Russian temporary base in the eastern region of Donetsk, which Moscow this week said killed 89 soldiers. It was the deadliest single attack on Russian forces in the war.

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Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky, criticized the ceasefire request from Kirill early on Thursday, saying the Russian Orthodox Church acts as a “propagandist of war.”

“The Russian Orthodox Church has called for the genocide of Ukrainians, encouraged mass murders, and insists on even greater militarization of the Russian Federation,” Podolyak tweeted. “Therefore, the statement of the Russian Orthodox Church about the ‘Christmas truce’ is a cynical trap and an element of propaganda.”

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The direct support for this war of aggression and conquest by the Russian Orthodox Church is a one of hte most disgusting and offensive aspects of this situation. Kirill has promised heaven to Russians who die while trying to kill Ukrainians. He should welcome more souls to heaven on Christmas.