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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/4/23 at 2:48 pm to Lakeboy7
Posted on 1/4/23 at 2:48 pm to Lakeboy7
Yes, having done one mobilization might make the next one easier for the Russian military bureaucracy, but it will be much harder for society. With the price of oil low and the economy in a decided downturn, a mobilization will really hurt Russian businesses.
And the failure of the Russian army to advance anywhere, combined with sky-high casualty numbers, will create lots of societal resistance. Putin can certainly do one more big round of mobilization, but each one after this gets harder, with more and more protest and potential for civil unrest.
And the failure of the Russian army to advance anywhere, combined with sky-high casualty numbers, will create lots of societal resistance. Putin can certainly do one more big round of mobilization, but each one after this gets harder, with more and more protest and potential for civil unrest.
3
Posted on 1/4/23 at 3:03 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
And the failure of the Russian army to advance anywhere, combined with sky-high casualty numbers, will create lots of societal resistance.
It can very fairly be said that the last mobilization of 300,000 men only netted thousands of corpses and no military gains. That's very compelling and bleak.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 3:15 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
GOP_Tiger
Thank you, sir.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 4:07 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Norway has donated 10 000 155mm shells to Ukraine.
The shells comes from Norwegian Armed Forces stocks and have already been delivered.
Yeah, 10k shells is not some huge number, but Norway's military is 16th out of the 30 in NATO in terms of personnel. If the rest of NATO steps up in similar fashion, Ukraine should have enough shells to tide them over until production can be expanded.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 4:12 pm to TBoy
quote:Reminiscent of WWI Russia.
It can very fairly be said that the last mobilization of 300,000 men only netted thousands of corpses and no military gains. That's very compelling and bleak.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 4:14 pm to Darth_Vader
From your experience, and any of you other armor guys feel free to chime in, how would giving Ukraine some of our surplus Bradley's affect things? Would it be a game changer? I know there has been some talk of late about it being a possibility.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 4:23 pm to GOP_Tiger
France is sending AMX-10RC armored vehicles to Ukraine. This is a big deal, in that it represents the first somewhat modern, NATO-manufactured heavy armor provided to Ukraine, which increases pressure on the US to provide Bradleys and on Germany to provide Leopards.
Here's the excerpt from the Google translation of the transcript of Macron's call with Zelensky:
Of course, I think some might dispute whether a wheeled vehicle can properly be called a "light tank," but the main point is that NATO has apparently decided that provided NATO-made heavy armor to Ukraine is not going to start WWIII.
EDIT: any of you Desert Storm guys want to chime in on this vehicle? I've read that it performed well in that conflict.
Here's the excerpt from the Google translation of the transcript of Macron's call with Zelensky:
quote:
The Head of State informed his counterpart of his decision to increase this aid in response to the needs expressed by kyiv, by delivering French-made light combat tanks for the first time.
Of course, I think some might dispute whether a wheeled vehicle can properly be called a "light tank," but the main point is that NATO has apparently decided that provided NATO-made heavy armor to Ukraine is not going to start WWIII.
EDIT: any of you Desert Storm guys want to chime in on this vehicle? I've read that it performed well in that conflict.
This post was edited on 1/4/23 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 1/4/23 at 4:36 pm to pirate75
quote:
giving Ukraine some of our surplus Bradley's affect things? Would it be a game changer?
They were given M113s early on and most were fitted with TOW launchers. They did very well when things were fluid. Given enough numbers the Brads could be a game changer especially in urban areas.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 4:39 pm to Lakeboy7
Looks like Belarus is mobilizing men from age 18 to 60. Is it thought they might join Russia as a fighting force?
Posted on 1/4/23 at 5:00 pm to Steve Rogers
quote:
Looks like Belarus is mobilizing men from age 18 to 60. Is it thought they might join Russia as a fighting force?
My understanding is that there is no will to join the fight on the part of the public in Belarus. If this is the plan, it may destabilize Belarus.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 5:01 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Yes, having done one mobilization might make the next one easier for the Russian military bureaucracy, but it will be much harder for society.
Why recent recruitment ads in December, I think 15 in total, were about working but not getting paid so re-enlisted and made money, coming home a hero. I totally get how some former military have problems adjusting to civilian life, but the ads suggest that none of the former military had adjusted and need to re-enlist.
Such a sad state the population is in.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 5:03 pm to TBoy
quote:
My understanding is that there is no will to join the fight on the part of the public in Belarus. If this is the plan, it may destabilize Belarus.
Military at home is the only thing keeping the present regime in office.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 5:18 pm to Steve Rogers
quote:
Looks like Belarus is mobilizing men from age 18 to 60. Is it thought they might join Russia as a fighting force?
They can mobilize but they dont have any equipment. The Russians took everything they had down to the last round.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 5:28 pm to Napoleon
quote:
I think people forgot how big Saddams military was.
Yep.
At the time Iraq had the 4th largest air force in the world.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 5:40 pm to Lakeboy7
They also have Generals that won’t fight and May turn on Luka. Luka knows this along with the fact he is deeply unpopular and this is an unpopular war if I had to bet he will go right up to that line and wait for a gulf of Tonkin moment ostensibly created by Russia. Tough sell.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 5:45 pm to SteelerBravesDawg
Sounds like in Luhansk, the Russians have abandoned the town of Dibrova. Ukraine has not yet occupied it and it's still a gray zone. But it would allow them to apply pressure on Kreminna from 3 sides. Meanwhile the Russians have reinforced Kreminna with Wagner group and airborne troops. The weather forecast is for cold weather beginning this weekend so the battle for Kreminna may be about to begin.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 6:09 pm to pirate75
quote:
From your experience, and any of you other armor guys feel free to chime in, how would giving Ukraine some of our surplus Bradley's affect things? Would it be a game changer? I know there has been some talk of late about it being a possibility.
The Bradley is a lethal battlefield asset. But it’s not a tank, though it does have AT capability. It’s primary mission, depending on how it’s configured, is either as a heavy scout or infantry carrier. It’s highly vulnerable to tanks. This was proven in the First Gulf War over 30 years ago.
It’s biggest disadvantage against tanks, other than the fact it’s lightly armored, is the fact it’s primary anti-tank weapon is the dual TOW missile launcher requires the vehicle to be stationary both when firing and while the missile in in flight to the target. That’s because the TOW missile is wire guided. Thus, whenever a Bradley is firing its TOW against a tank, it’s both stationary and exposed to fire from other tanks.
Now, if NATO supplies Ukraine with either Abrams or Leopard Tanks, doesn’t even have to be the latest versions, that indeed would be a game changer so long as they were supplied in sufficient numbers. But, having said that, if we did supply Ukraine with Abrams or Leopards, that would necessitate a whole other level of logistics support insofar as fuel and spare parts goes. The Abrams is a thirsty beast when it comes to fuel. Plus, we would have to supply them with the M88 recovery vehicle because I don’t think Russian vehicles, designed to tow lighter Russian tanks, can pull either the Abrams or Leopard.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 7:30 pm to Darth_Vader
Washington Post tonight:
But the TOW has a significantly longer range than Russian tanks, correct? So, in combat against Russian tanks, the Bradley will still often have the advantage, I think.
quote:
A senior administration official said that Bradleys could be included in a package of weapons to be announced as soon as this week.
quote:
It’s biggest disadvantage against tanks, other than the fact it’s lightly armored, is the fact it’s primary anti-tank weapon is the dual TOW missile launcher requires the vehicle to be stationary both when firing and while the missile in in flight to the target. That’s because the TOW missile is wire guided. Thus, whenever a Bradley is firing its TOW against a tank, it’s both stationary and exposed to fire from other tanks.
But the TOW has a significantly longer range than Russian tanks, correct? So, in combat against Russian tanks, the Bradley will still often have the advantage, I think.
Posted on 1/4/23 at 7:40 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But the TOW has a significantly longer range than Russian tanks, correct? So, in combat against Russian tanks, the Bradley will still often have the advantage, I think.
The TOW is effective up to almost 4,000 meters while most Russian tanks are good up to little more than 3,000 meters so on paper the Bradley has the advantage when it comes to range. But, while a Bradley has to be stationary to fire the TOW, tanks can fire on the move. The problem for the Bradley is while it’s engaging one tank, it’s vulnerable to other tanks on end battlefield. Basically, it’s best if a Bradley avoids direct combat with main battle tanks. They’re not actually designed or intended to go toe to toe with them. It fills the same battlefield role as the BMP.
This post was edited on 1/4/23 at 7:50 pm
Posted on 1/4/23 at 7:55 pm to Darth_Vader
ISW Update
quote:
The Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Makiivka to criticize endemic issues in the Russian military apparatus. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) released an official response to the strike on January 4 and attributed it to the "presence and mass use by personnel, contrary to prohibitions, of mobile telephones within range of enemy weapons systems."[1] The Russian MoD also claimed that the death toll of the strike is now 89, including a deputy regimental commander, Lieutenant Colonel Bachurin.
quote:
The Russian milblogger response to the Russian MoD deflection of blame onto individual servicemen accurately identifies the endemic unwillingness or inability of the Russian military apparatus to address systemic failures. Cell phone use may have aided the Ukrainian strike to some degree, but the Russian MoD’s fixation on this as the cause of the strike is largely immaterial. An appropriately organized and properly trained and led modern army should not permit the convergence of the factors that contributed to the Makiivka strike in the first place.
quote:
The continued construction of Russian units using solely mobilized recruits will not generate combat power commensurate with the number of mobilized personnel deployed. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin remarked in the wake of the Makiivka strike on January 4 that some of the officers of the targeted regiment were mobilized servicemen.[9] Pushilin’s indication that certain Russian units are relying on newly mobilized and poorly trained recruits for leadership roles, as opposed to drawing from the combat-hardened officer cadre, adds further nuance to the poor performance of and high losses within units comprised of mobilized recruits.
quote:
The Russian MoD has again shifted the rhetoric and format of its daily situational reports (SITREPs) likely to flood the information space with insignificant claimed successes and distract from its significant military failures. The Russian MoD instituted this shift on January 3, doubling the length of its previous SITREPs and focusing on claimed strikes against Ukrainian military assets that often lack operational significance rather than on its largely unsuccessful ground attacks.[10] These SITREPs focus on small settlements and group strikes by target type rather than location, making it difficult for its audience to geographically orient the SITREP and verify the claimed strikes
quote:
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated that Ukrainian forces intend to launch a major counteroffensive throughout Ukraine in the spring of 2023. Budanov stated in an interview with ABC News published on January 4 that he expects fighting to be the most intense in March of 2023 and that the Ukrainian military is planning a major push in the spring that will liberate territory "from Crimea to Donbas" and deal "the final defeats to the Russian Federation."
quote:
Russian forces are increasingly reliant on Iranian-made drones in their campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure and have likely significantly depleted their current stock of these systems. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative Vadym Skibitsky reported on January 4 that Russian forces have used about 660 Iranian-made Shahed-131 and -136 drones in Ukraine since their first use in September of 2022
Skibitsky reported that Russia’s contract with Iran stipulates the transfer of 1,750 drones and that Russian forces currently need to replenish their stocks following a high use of these systems in previous days.[22] Skibitsky also reported that the GUR has intelligence that suggests that Russia will receive another shipment of Iranian-made drones on an unspecified date.
quote:
Russia will likely seek further bilateral cooperation with Iran in order to secure a greater number of high-precision weapons systems for use in Ukraine. An Iranian state-run media source claimed on December 28 that Iran will soon receive 24 Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets from Russia likely in exchange for Iranian-made drones and ballistic missiles.
Russian forces would use all the pledged 1,750 Iranian-made drones in Ukraine by May 2023 if they consume them at the same rate as between September and December 2022. Russia will therefore likely look to secure further agreements with Iran on the provision of Iranian-made high-precision weapons systems in order to augment its campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure.
quote:
Key Takeaways
The Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Makiivka to criticize endemic issues in the Russian military apparatus and its unwillingness to address systemic failures.
The continued construction of Russian units using solely mobilized recruits will not generate combat power commensurate with the number of mobilized personnel deployed.
The Russian MoD has again shifted the rhetoric and format of its daily situational reports (SITREPs) likely to flood the information space with insignificant claimed successes and distract from its significant military failures.
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated that Ukrainian forces intend to launch a major counteroffensive throughout Ukraine in the spring of 2023.
Russian forces are increasingly reliant upon Iranian-made drones to strike Ukrainian critical infrastructure, and Russia will likely seek further bilateral cooperation with Iran in order to secure a greater number of high-precision weapons systems for use in Ukraine.
Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line as Ukrainian strikes reportedly damaged Russian military logistics in Luhansk Oblast.
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut amid continued indicators that the broader offensive may be culminating.
Russian forces continued offensive operations on the western outskirts of Donetsk City.
Russian forces continued to rebuild force capability and conduct defensive operations in Kherson Oblast on January 4.
Select Russian private armament manufacturers are continuing to criticize the Russian military campaign.
Russian occupation authorities continued to take measures to resolve administrative issues associated with consolidating Russian control of occupied territories on January 4.
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