re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

LINK

Well so much for peace talks I guess

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the Kremlin will continue to pursue a military solution to the war until the Ukrainian government capitulates to Russia’s demands. Lavrov stated in a December 27 interview with Russian state news wire TASS that Ukraine and the West are “well aware of Russia’s proposals on the demilitarization and denazification” of Ukrainian-controlled territory and that the Russian military will settle these issues if Ukraine refuses to accept these proposals.[1] Russian demands for “demilitarization” aim to eliminate Ukraine’s ability to resist further Russian attacks, while the demands for “denazification” are tantamount to calls for regime change in Ukraine.[2] Lavrov added that Ukraine and the United States must recognize Russia’s seizure of occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts. Lavrov stated that US-controlled Ukraine and the United States are responsible for prolonging the war as they could "put an end to [Ukraine’s] senseless resistance."[3] Lavrov’s invocation of a military settlement for the war in Ukraine that achieves Russia’s original war aims follows Russian President Vladimir Putin’s deliberately vague statements that Russia is open for negotiations on December 25.

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Lavrov stated that Russia is unable to work on any agreements with the West due to its provocative actions in Ukraine and elsewhere. Lavrov stated that the United States and its NATO allies are pursuing “victory over Russia on the battlefield” in Ukraine “as a mechanism for significantly weakening or even destroying” the Russian Federation.[6] Lavrov nonsensically accused US military officials of planning a decapitation blow against the Kremlin that included killing Russian President Vladimir Putin.[7] Lavrov also accused the United States and NATO members of being de facto parties to the war in Ukraine and of engaging in dangerous nuclear signaling.[8] Lavrov argued that Russian officials are unable to maintain normal communications or work on any proposals or agreements with the United States under these conditions, as the United States seeks to inflict strategic defeat against the Russian Federation.[9] Lavrov stated that Russian officials are ready to discuss security issues in the context of Ukraine and in a broader, strategic plan, but only when American officials "realize the defectiveness of the current course” and return to "building mutually respectful relations on the basis of the obligatory consideration of legitimate Russian interests.”

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The Kremlin will likely continue to focus its grievances against the West and ignore Ukraine as a sovereign entity in support of ongoing information operations that seek to compel the West to offer preemptive concessions and pressure Ukraine to negotiate. The Kremlin routinely portrays Ukraine as a Western pawn that lacks any actual sovereignty in order to disqualify Ukrainian officials from future direct negotiations and instead frame negotiations with Russia as being the responsibility of Western officials

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The Kremlin is increasingly integrating select milbloggers into its information campaigns, likely in an effort to regain a dominant narrative within the information space. A prominent Russian milblogger involved in combat in occupied Donetsk Oblast gave a nearly 20-minute interview to a Russian federal channel pushing key Kremlin narratives on mobilization and support for the war effort.[14] The milblogger explained that Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces recruited him out of prison in Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast in 2014, and accused mobilized men who complain to their wives about mobilization and poor conditions on the frontlines of being weak.

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The Kremlin has also intensified its efforts to coopt prominent milbloggers by offering them positions of power, which in turn allows them to amplify some elements of official rhetoric. One Russian milblogger who Putin appointed to the Russian Human Rights Council amplified an official statement from the council claiming that it had not received any information about the forcible mobilization of prisoners to participate in the war

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The Kremlin could significantly benefit from the integration of some prominent milbloggers’ voices into its information space, but Putin remains unlikely to domesticate the entire community. The Kremlin had partially integrated at least seven of the most prominent milbloggers into its information sphere who are generally not affiliated with other factions such as the Wagner Group, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, or Russian veteran communities. Russian outlets have started to rank milbloggers and their growing popularity, noting that there are at least 50 extremely influential milbloggers from different factions among thousands of milblogger Telegram channels.

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Key Takeaways

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the Kremlin will continue to pursue a military solution to the war until the US accepts its demands and forces Ukraine to do the same.

Lavrov stated that Russia is unable to work on any agreements with the West due to its supposed provocative actions.

The Kremlin will likely continue information operations to seek to compel the West to offer preemptive concessions and pressure Ukraine to negotiate.

The Kremlin is increasingly integrating select milbloggers into its information campaigns, likely in an effort to regain a dominant narrative within the information space.

Ukrainian forces have likely made more gains in northeast Ukraine than ISW has previously assessed.

Russian forces may be nearing culmination in the Bakhmut area amid continuing Russian offensive operations there and in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.

Russian forces are maintaining their fortification efforts in southern Ukraine.

The Kremlin is continuing its efforts to publicly punish deserters and saboteurs.

Russian officials are intensifying efforts to deport children from occupied territories to Russia.

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This Berletic dude

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He is an author at The Grayzone which is just another Kremlin outlet.

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Russian officials are intensifying efforts to deport children from occupied territories to Russia.

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any estimates these days on the total number of children taken from their homes by these assholes?

Bakhmut is not at all worth what the waves and waves of men Russia is sending into the meat grinder. They just want to be able to say they took a city but they have leveled it entirely with artillery and it’s not really all that important militarily as other areas. Ukraine has just made them pay in blood for every foot they take.

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Can Kyiv maintain control if Bahkmut was lost?

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Terrain wise, it is on high ground with high ground behind it, after low ground. It has zero strategic value ever since Lyman was taken by Ukraine for a pincer encirclement.

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Clearly went right over my head at 3:45 AM.

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I wouldn't be at this time of day, but I awakened with an angle for a business proposal at 3AM. Interesting that I read the book after an engineer for major Anheuser-Busch expansion who had served on a "boomer" told me that it was the most accurate description of a sub he had ever read.

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To be fair, our subs don’t have doctors on board (at least the fast attacks don’t, the boomers might). When I was in the sub force, our sole medical rep onboard was an E6 corpsman

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Same on the boomer. Just an E-6 corpsman. Anything serious and your getting medivaced out.

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Russia has constructed extensive new defences in the area and will likely prioritise holding the line here. The area is logistically important for Russia's Donbas front and it is also a significant town in Luhansk Oblast. The Kremlin claims that the 'liberation' of this area is a core justification for the war.

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The key question is what is the nature of these “extensive new defenses”?

Are they fortified positions with extensive field worlds and minefields, echeloned in depth, and manned by trained trained solders with proper armor, artillery, and air defenses?

Or did they dig some trenches and throw in a mob of untrained conscripts armed with 60 year old AK-47s backed up with even older T-62s and little to no artillery support?

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I’ve always thought if there were going to be an attack it would be from the northern sector somewhere since that still seems to be the area Ukraine can make gains easiest and the ground will freeze faster in the north versus towards the south.

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Yes, but Ukraine is attacking there right now, and winning. They don't have to start a new offensive there, because they already have one, though it would make sense to expand it, and frozen ground will help. I think it's likely that the operation there will get reinforcements soon.

This was from the ISW report last night:

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Ukrainian forces have likely made larger gains in northeast Ukraine than ISW has previously assessed ... Ukrainian forces likely captured Dvorichna, Novomlynsk, and Tavilzhanka in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and Kolomiychikha in Luhansk Oblast given that both Russian and Ukrainian sources reported Russian shelling against these settlements on December 27. ISW has updated its maps accordingly.

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Dvorichna, Novomlynsk, and Tavilzhanka are northeast of Kupiansk, indicating new Ukrainian progress in a sector that hasn't seen much movement in a while.

Kolomiychikha is just northwest of Svatove. Here's NOEL's map from two days ago showing it (it's the more southern area of fighting):



There have also been lots of reports of Ukraine closing in on Kreminna. Two days ago, Ukraine took Chervonopopivka, just to the north of Kreminna. Ukraine is wrapping itself around Kreminna and is getting ready to squeeze. Once the ground freezes, I expect Kreminna to fall fairly quickly, even though Russia is sending reinforcements.

In summary, if you look at the line from Kreminna north to the Russian border, in the last two days, Ukraine has captured settlements in three distinct areas of that line. Ukraine is still making real progress.