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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 11/18/22 at 9:14 am to
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8170 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 9:14 am to
Rybar discussing a possible offensive in the Zaporozhye area...via another poster on telegram. I think this could be old.
https://t.me/milinfolive/91456
quote:

About the likely offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye direction

Earlier we said that Ukrainian formations are preparing for an offensive in the Zaporozhye direction. Based on characteristic signs, we assume that the preparation is close to completion.

?? What is the plan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?

??Application of mobile groups

Since October 3, daily Ukrainian DRGs of up to 20 people have been conducting reconnaissance in combat in the areas of the settlements of Mirnoye and Pologi, and before that - in Hulyaypole. The groups are made up of foreign mercenaries, mostly Poles.

Their main task is to wedge in and gain a foothold in positions, using gaps in the combat formations of the RF Armed Forces.

??Massive artillery shelling

The activities of the DRG are accompanied by a massive fire shelling of artillery and MLRS. Ukrainian troops are firing indiscriminately at Russian positions almost without interruption.

In September, more than 20 units of barreled and self-propelled artillery of Western production were deployed to the Gulyai-Pole and Orekhovsky sectors.

The main goal of the first two points is to probe the most vulnerable points in the defense of the RF Armed Forces and exhaust the Russian contingent due to constant attacks and strikes, mainly at night.

??Concentration of armored vehicles in the areas of the main strike

Simultaneously with the actions of assault groups, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are deploying a large number of armored vehicles in the direction of the main attack in order to wedged into the defenses of the RF Armed Forces.

Just today, a convoy of military equipment, including six tanks, arrived at the Stepnogorsk-Orekhov line. At the same time, Ukrainian air defense systems were moved to the southern outskirts of Zaporozhye to cover ground forces, and mobile fire crews of MANPADS operate on the line of contact.

??Primary Direction Masking

And the most important thing for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to ensure the secrecy of the events. To do this, the Ukrainian command conducts deliberate disinformation both in open and closed sources.

Only recently we wrote that in the radio exchange of the unit of the 66th Ombr of the Armed Forces of Ukraine they deliberately reported on the withdrawal of the connection from the direction due to allegedly large losses in manpower and equipment in the hope of an offensive by Russian troops.

And in order to mislead the Russian command, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are defiantly transferring forces to false directions, forcing the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to transfer units to hold the line.


Posted by jeffsdad
Member since Mar 2007
24892 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 9:21 am to
Chrome...sound like Russian forces are starting to have some success on the eastern front? I wonder how much it is costing them and if the U's are baiting them into sacrificing their men for minimal gains. Hopefully, the later. I never thought I'd see another WW1 type of war which artillery the main focus. Odd circumstances made it happen I guess.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8170 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 9:36 am to
Yes, russia has made some small incremental gains around Donetsk, but really no where else.

I would not classify it as anything major or indicative of gains in the future. Think of it as two football teams in a defensive game where the ball moves back and forth but never enters the red zone.

ETA: Yes artillery is the decisive factor in a ground war, always has been, and probably always will be; however, Drones could change this in the future.
This post was edited on 11/18/22 at 9:39 am
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15766 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 9:45 am to
quote:

Rybar


How many times did Rybar report that Pisky was taken when the Russian forces were decimated? At least 3 times
Posted by Tigeralum2008
Yankees Fan
Member since Apr 2012
17717 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 9:48 am to
quote:

Chrome...sound like Russian forces are starting to have some success on the eastern front? I wonder how much it is costing them and if the U's are baiting them into sacrificing their men for minimal gains. Hopefully, the later. I never thought I'd see another WW1 type of war which artillery the main focus. Odd circumstances made it happen I guess.


I'm curious why we aren't hearing more about airborne assaults. With how thinly the lines are manned you could likely wreck shite with a division of mechanized airborne
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20974 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 9:49 am to
Russia mobilized some 300,000 men, so it's sacrificing a bunch of them for some tiny territorial gains -- that's what is happening in Donetsk.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15766 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 9:51 am to
Here I am citing Rybar.

quote:

Another attack by naval drones on a Russian port

At 04:00 on Nov 17, an AFU naval drone attacked the Sheskharis oil harbor in Novorossiysk. No serious damage was recorded, and it had no effect on operations.

LINK

FTR, Crude oil there is loaded at mooring buoys due limited water depth at the port itself. Product (gasoline, diesel, etc...) tankers are loaded at the port itself. Crude oil is comingled Russian Urals and crude oil from Kazakhstan.

Posted by AbuTheMonkey
Chicago, IL
Member since May 2014
8646 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 9:52 am to
quote:

ETA: Yes artillery is the decisive factor in a ground war, always has been, and probably always will be; however, Drones could change this in the future.



Airpower has been by far the most decisive platform in conflicts involving major powers since WWII. This time, however, the Russian Air Force couldn't establish air superiority much less air dominance and, thus, the conflict defaulted into a grind 'em down, entrenched, stalemated conflict on a lot of fronts.

To me at least, that is still the most baffling and strangest outcome of this war so far - how did the Russians get so thoroughly defanged so quickly in the air? Is their air force just not that good or is Ukraine's air defense a lot better than most anticipated? Maybe a bit of both?

It's pretty clear that the Russians struggle with complex battlefield communication, and I am sure their infantry struggled mightily to talk CAS on to targets (if they're talking to them at all) even before this conflict.

Artillery doesn't even really matter that much in the 21st century if you have air dominance. This war would've been over in a month or two if Russia had been able to truly dominate the skies.
This post was edited on 11/18/22 at 9:53 am
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
73686 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 9:55 am to
quote:

I never thought I'd see another WW1 type of war which artillery the main focus. Odd circumstances made it happen I guess.


The reason you’re seeing this is the Russians are, due to lack of training, incapable of combined arms maneuver warfare. The Ukrainians aren’t much better yet. They’re learning for sure. That played a big role in their successful offensive we’ve seen in the last several weeks. But it’s not a process that can be engrained in larger formations overnight.
Posted by TigerDoc
Texas
Member since Apr 2004
11869 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 9:55 am to
quote:

Yes, russia has made some small incremental gains around Donetsk, but really no where else.


This was out of Russian sources this morning per the UK Telegram. They're trying to get ready for the next Ukrainian push.

quote:

Russia is 'fortifying' Crimea
Russia confirmed British intelligence that it is reinforcing its defensive positions in Crimea on Friday, as Ukraine reclaims territory in the neighbouring Kherson region.

"Fortification work is being carried out on the territory of Crimea under my control with the aim of guaranteeing the security of all Crimeans," the Moscow-appointed governor of the region, Sergei Aksyonov, said on social media.

The UK Ministry of Defence said on Friday that new trench systems were being constructed along the Crimean border, and as far as 40 miles behind the front line, as Russia anticipates further Ukrainian breakthroughs.
This post was edited on 11/18/22 at 9:56 am
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
73686 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 9:57 am to
quote:

To me at least, that is still the most baffling and strangest outcome of this war so far - how did the Russians get so thoroughly defanged so quickly in the air? Is their air force just not that good or is Ukraine's air defense a lot better than most anticipated? Maybe a bit of both?


Air is one key aspect. But it also takes tank and infantry ground unit working together in a cohesive manner. The Russians simply can’t do it. It’s obvious they’re not even trained to do it.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8170 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 9:59 am to
Hell, they aren't even trained in basic soldiering!
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
73686 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 10:03 am to
quote:

Hell, they aren't even trained in basic soldiering!


If you look back at the Russian army going back well over a century, they have a long history of sending untrained, oftentimes unarmed, men into battle to be slaughtered in the thousands.
This post was edited on 11/18/22 at 10:04 am
Posted by AbuTheMonkey
Chicago, IL
Member since May 2014
8646 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 10:08 am to
quote:

quote:
To me at least, that is still the most baffling and strangest outcome of this war so far - how did the Russians get so thoroughly defanged so quickly in the air? Is their air force just not that good or is Ukraine's air defense a lot better than most anticipated? Maybe a bit of both?


Air is one key aspect. But it also takes tank and infantry ground unit working together in a cohesive manner. The Russians simply can’t do it. It’s obvious they’re not even trained to do it.


When I was in, all of the "Joint" this and "Combined" that got a lot of eye roll as a bunch of officers and SNCO's fluffing each others' scrotums, but it really does matter a lot in lethality and capability.

Those are kind of the little things that the US military hammers home and trains on over and over and over and over again that the average civilian at home probably doesn't understand or even think much about for combat - things like radio protocol, encryption, 9 lines, stacking and sequencing assets, non-verbal communication, etc., etc.

Shooting, small unit tactics, MOUT, and all that are fun to train and look cool, but that ain't the shite that really wins wars.
This post was edited on 11/18/22 at 10:09 am
Posted by jeffsdad
Member since Mar 2007
24892 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 10:16 am to
Abu..... on page 2156, Citizen posted an excellent response to your air war question. Its an interview with a British expert in this area. Well worth the view.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8170 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 10:22 am to
Very good point Abu
quote:

Shooting, small unit tactics, MOUT, and all that are fun to train and look cool, but that ain't the shite that really wins wars.
Posted by jeffsdad
Member since Mar 2007
24892 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 10:34 am to
Mout?
Posted by AbuTheMonkey
Chicago, IL
Member since May 2014
8646 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 10:39 am to
quote:

Mout?



Military Operations in Urban Terrain (MOUT)

Basically, learning how to fight in an urban environment. It's the most fun part of infantry / special operations training, especially when you're doing it with sim rounds (basically chalk rounds) and / or live munition.

Mind you, actually fighting in a city fricking sucks, and it's about ten or a hundred times more complex than fighting in less populated areas, but training for it is legit fun.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30521 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 10:42 am to
quote:

I'm curious why we aren't hearing more about airborne assaults. With how thinly the lines are manned you could likely wreck shite with a division of mechanized airborne


With neither side having even air superiority the planes would get chewed up before they could get to the drop zones. In general terms, paratroopers are in the upper levels of training so you don't want to waste them.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
73686 posts
Posted on 11/18/22 at 10:42 am to
quote:

AbuTheMonkey


You hit the nail on the head. People may see the video of American units on the move and it looks really cool. What they don’t see is all the logistics and coordination between literally thousands of individuals ranging from the maneuver units, command & control, support units, etc. it takes all of it working in harmony to make the whole thing work. And the only way to do that is training, training, and when you’re done with that even more training. It’s literally a never ending process.
This post was edited on 11/18/22 at 10:43 am
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