re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Despite many worrying aspects of the degrading cross-Taiwan Strait military balance, the Chinese military does not appear to have enough amphibious assault capacity on its own to successfully invade Taiwan, and hasn’t seemed to make it a high priority to get more. The U.S. Department of Defense’s assessment of China’s amphibious lift capacity stated that the amphibious fleet seemed to be focused on global expeditionary missions rather than “the large number of landing ship transports and medium landing craft” that would be required for a full-scale beach assault. Taiwan’s own Ministry of Defense has largely concurred, indicating that China “lacks the landing vehicles and logistics required to launch an incursion into Taiwan.”

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has largely agreed. In its 2020 report on Taiwan, it said, “The [Chinese military’s] most immediate limitation in executing a Taiwan campaign is a shortage of amphibious lift, or ships and aircraft capable of transporting the troops the [Chinese military] needs to successfully subjugate the island.” The report did indicate that China is working to close this gap in “creative ways that may challenge foreign preconceptions of what the [People’s Liberation Army] can and cannot do in an invasion of Taiwan,” but indicated that efforts to use civilian vessels to do so consisted thus far of limited training efforts to support the landing of follow-on forces — that is, after the Chinese military seized a port or constructed temporary wharves to offload civilian ships.

Some observers of Chinese military developments have been somewhat mystified by China’s apparent willingness to live with this limitation in amphibious lift capability. After all, the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party seems focused on the idea of eventual unification with Taiwan, peaceful or otherwise, and China hardly lacks the ability to build the necessary ships should it choose to do so. On this question, Lonnie Henley, a retired career intelligence officer and China specialist, testified this year to the U.S.-China commission that among a number of other possibilities, China probably has a goal to be able to invade Taiwan, that it probably set that goal for 2020, and that it has probably met that goal. He indicated, however, that it may not be readily apparent to most external observers that China has built enough landing capacity, as having done so would require “a different concept for how to deliver forces, relying less on military ships and more on civilian vessels.” While Henley declined to delve into the details of such a concept of operations in his testimony, it has become clear in recent months that just such a concept is being practiced by the Chinese military on a regular basis, that it could be used to land first-echelon assault troops on Taiwan, and that it could be employed at a scale that dwarfs the capacity of China’s traditional amphibious assault fleet.

Unless I’m reading it wrong the second paragraph in your post directly contradicts the first.

I am seeing reports that the mayor of Nikolaev has ordered that city be evacuated. I do not believe it and would be a truly shocking turn of events if true. Anyone else see this report and if so wat means?

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We”ve still got $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to draw off. It seems poetic to think that Russia is actually funding Ukraine’s defense.

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When are we going to ‘redeem’ these frozen assets?

Of note: for the first time in forever, Ukraine has counterattacked in the Bakhmut direction and is making real progress, retaking the asphalt plant and threatening to retake Zaitseve.

The tide has finally turned in that area.

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When are we going to ‘redeem’ these frozen assets?

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I have been wondering but just too damn lazy to research it but what are the protocols for moving this money out of Russia's accounts and redirecting it?

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to outright theft by the USG from private citizens and corporations in another country.

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What else would you call it? If there weren’t laws preventing the use of those funds don’t you think we’d already be using it? Don’t you think we would’ve used all the funds we froze from Iran?

I don’t know man, maybe you’re right. Maybe after the decades of the USG freezing funds of businesses and individuals from countries we don’t like not a single person has thought use that money or keep it. Send an email to your congressman with your novel idea.

you mean im not going to get a direct deposit of millions of seized assets from russian oligarchs? well shite