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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/6/22 at 7:32 pm to jeffsdad
Posted on 10/6/22 at 7:32 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
Pure political post
“war is not merely a political act but a real political instrument, a continuation of political intercourse, a carrying out of the same by other means” - Clausewitz
War 101. Of course it's politics, what else would it be? The problem with war is that it rarely gives the desired result, or at least a result that was worth it in the long run. Putin had a lot of examples and learned nothing from them.
Posted on 10/6/22 at 7:33 pm to BrianKellyRespecter
Are those actual movements by the good guys or just speculation?
Posted on 10/6/22 at 7:39 pm to WeeWee
Title of map says “details of the probable AFU offensive”
So I’m guessing not happing…..yet
But unless RU moves trips in to counter it will happen as it is the next logical step. An offensive pushing here to the coast would completely cut of the land route west
So I’m guessing not happing…..yet
But unless RU moves trips in to counter it will happen as it is the next logical step. An offensive pushing here to the coast would completely cut of the land route west
Posted on 10/6/22 at 7:50 pm to WeeWee
Here is the commentary that goes along with it, there is another post a few down from this one that also discusses it
https://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/display.aspx?sp=104618538&s=2&p=101373605#104618538
https://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/display.aspx?sp=104618538&s=2&p=101373605#104618538
Posted on 10/6/22 at 7:58 pm to Chromdome35
Ok y’all what’s happened over the last 24-36 hours? Transpacific routes along with maintenance delays on the tarmac take something out of you and I just don’t have the patience to read through the 20 pages I’ve missed on this thread. Can someone give me the cliffs notes on what’s been happening?
This post was edited on 10/6/22 at 8:02 pm
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:08 pm to LSUPilot07
Breaking back in here for this. Tell me I’m paranoid and wrong about nuclear war when Biden said this tonight. One and done, but I don’t see how y’all can think we’re on the right and winning path
But I’m the crazy one when the President is just repeating what I’ve been saying since February? And then what Zelensky said today. My God, wake up people. Again, one and done.
quote:
LINK ]BIDEN tonight: Putin “is not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming.”
“I don't think there's any such thing as the ability to easily (use) a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.”
“There’s a lot at stake,” @POTUS Biden said at a closed-door DNC fundraiser in NYC tonight, per WH pooler @eschulze.
“We’re going to continue to support [Ukraine] but (for) the first time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have the direct threat of the use of a nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path that they are going. That’s a different deal.”
“We are trying to figure out what is Putin’s off ramp? Where does he get off? Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself in a position that he does not not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia?” - Biden tonight at a @dscc @DNC fundraiser in NYC.
But I’m the crazy one when the President is just repeating what I’ve been saying since February? And then what Zelensky said today. My God, wake up people. Again, one and done.
This post was edited on 10/6/22 at 8:09 pm
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:14 pm to OMLandshark
Better get to your doomsday bunker OML. Bring grandma with you since she’s lets you live in her basement all these years.
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:18 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Tell me I’m paranoid and wrong about nuclear war
Well, you’re definitely paranoid.
Edit: I really think you should get in on the human trials of that LSD-derived anxiolytic that UNC Medical School has developed. It might be helpful to you.
This post was edited on 10/6/22 at 8:20 pm
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:19 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
But I’m the crazy one when the President is just repeating what I’ve been saying since February? And then what Zelensky said today. My God, wake up people. Again, one and done.
No one really said you were incorrect in thinking Putin might do it. They correctly give you grief for doomsday forecasting and thinking we just need to give Putin whatever he wants to avoid it.
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:21 pm to StormyMcMan
ISW Update
quote:
Russia’s use of Iranian-made drones is not generating asymmetric effects the way the Ukrainian use of US-provided HIMARS systems has done and is unlikely to affect the course of the war significantly.
quote:
The Wagner Private Military Company announced the creation of its own private Telegram channel on October 6, indicating that Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may want a voice that is clearly his own to compete with milbloggers and possibly Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov, who all have their own Telegram channels.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russia’s use of Iranian-made drones is not generating asymmetric effects the way the Ukrainian use of US-provided HIMARS systems has done and is unlikely to affect the course of the war significantly.
The Wagner Private Military Company announced the creation of its own private Telegram channel on October 6, indicating that Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may want a voice that is clearly his own to compete with milbloggers and possibly Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov, who all have their own Telegram channels.
Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast near Kupyansk and operations to threaten Russian positions along the Kreminna-Svatove road in western Luhansk Oblast on October 6.
Russian troops are likely establishing defensive positions in upper Kherson Oblast following the collapse of the Russian line in northeast Kherson.
Russian troops continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 6 and likely made incremental gains around Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued to conduct routine artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole, and in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv Oblasts on October 6.
Local Russian officials appear to be frantically looking for ways to fund their mobilized units as the Kremlin increasingly expects local administrations to pay for the war effort from their own budgets.
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on October 6 that Russian forces began the forced mobilization of Ukrainian citizens in Russian-occupied Kremmina and Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast.
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:21 pm to StormyMcMan
A very happy 70th birthday to Vladimir Putin.
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:21 pm to OMLandshark
What we need to do is get China and India to tell Putin that if he uses nukes that they will cut off all trade with Russia (ie: oil)
It doesn’t have to be public. It can be back channeled.
Edit: China and India would have to be guaranteed oil supply though from other countries. Should tell them we will open up production to the max to make up for lost Russian supply. They need the oil and need the guarantee.
It doesn’t have to be public. It can be back channeled.
Edit: China and India would have to be guaranteed oil supply though from other countries. Should tell them we will open up production to the max to make up for lost Russian supply. They need the oil and need the guarantee.
This post was edited on 10/6/22 at 8:25 pm
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:30 pm to LSUPilot07
TL:DR version is not much has happened. THe Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson area has not advanced from where it was a couple of days ago.
In the East, there have been some incremental gains.
Around Bhakmut, the Russians have made some incremental gains
Ukraine is probing and building strength for a push on Melitopol, Rybar thinks the Ukrainian offensive in that area is eminent.
ETA: Zelinsky made some comments about a preemptive strike on Russia that have been widely misreported and they had to clarify what he meant.
In the East, there have been some incremental gains.
Around Bhakmut, the Russians have made some incremental gains
Ukraine is probing and building strength for a push on Melitopol, Rybar thinks the Ukrainian offensive in that area is eminent.
ETA: Zelinsky made some comments about a preemptive strike on Russia that have been widely misreported and they had to clarify what he meant.
This post was edited on 10/6/22 at 8:33 pm
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:33 pm to WeeWee
quote:
NEW - Ukraine's Zelensky calls on NATO to launch "preemptive strikes" against Russia to "eliminate the possibility" of a Russian nuclear strike.
There is one 100% foolproof way to instigate Armageddon and this is it. Only a complete idiot and or lunatic would even suggest such a move.
No one in their right mind could support or even defend this.
This post was edited on 10/6/22 at 8:35 pm
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:35 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Ok y’all what’s happened over the last 24-36 hours? Transpacific routes along with maintenance delays on the tarmac take something out of you and I just don’t have the patience to read through the 20 pages I’ve missed on this thread. Can someone give me the cliffs notes on what’s been happening?
Ukraine is consolidating and reorganizing, presumably in advance of resuming it's offensive. Russia's logistics and manpower woes continue. Fissures are appearing in the Russian leadership cabal.
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:37 pm to Darth_Vader
Ukraine has clarified what he meant which was not calling for a nuclear strike.
Original statement
Clarification
Original statement
quote:
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine, has called upon NATO to respond to Russia’s nuclear threats by applying preventative pressure. Russia has perceived this statement as a call for a preemptive strike on Russia.
Source: Zelenskyy, during a discussion at the Lowy Institute, Australia, which he attended via video link; Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the President of Russia; Maria Zakharova, representative of Russia’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs; Serhii Nykyforov, spokesperson for Zelenskyy, on Facebook
Quote from Zelenskyy in response to a question about what NATO should do to prevent Russia from using nuclear weapons:
"We can already see that these people [the Russians – ed.] are capable of such atrocities. What must NATO do? Make it impossible for Russia to use nuclear weapons. But what is [even more] important, I am once again turning to the international community as I did before 24 February. Preventative strikes, so that they know what will await them if they use [a nuclear weapon]. Not the other way round – wait for Russian nuclear strikes and then say afterwards, ‘Oh, it’s like that, is it? Well, take this from us!’
Reconsider applying pressure - that’s what NATO should do, and reconsider the order in which it is applied."
Clarification
quote:
President Volodymyr Zelensky said the West should have carried out "preemptive strikes, so that (Russians) know what will happen to them if they use it," referring to nuclear weapons. Serhii Nykyforov, Zelensky's spokesperson, explained that the president was referring to preventive sanctions that were to be applied before Russia's full-scale invasion and assured that Ukraine would never call for the use of nuclear weapons.
This post was edited on 10/6/22 at 8:39 pm
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:38 pm to Chromdome35
Yeah, the TLDR for the last 36 hours is that Ukraine is regrouping after its big gains on both fronts to prepare for the next big assaults.
In the East, I think that it's going to be another couple of days before Ukraine is ready to make a push on Svatove. The outlines there of what's going to happen are already known by both sides.
I have no idea what will happen next in the South. I only know that the new Russian lines in the area northeast of Kherson are unstable and unlikely to hold.
In the East, I think that it's going to be another couple of days before Ukraine is ready to make a push on Svatove. The outlines there of what's going to happen are already known by both sides.
I have no idea what will happen next in the South. I only know that the new Russian lines in the area northeast of Kherson are unstable and unlikely to hold.
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:38 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
There is one 100% foolproof way to instigate Armageddon and this is it. Only a complete idiot and or lunatic would even suggest such a move. No one in their right mind could support or even defend this.
I agree. He went too far with this suggestion. Not gonna happen anyway.
Posted on 10/6/22 at 8:38 pm to Darth_Vader
The only real danger is that it will lead to greater Russian resolve to continue the war and it’ll put more Ukrainians’ lives in danger. NATO isn’t going to do a preemptive strike on Russia and Russia knows NATO won’t do a preemptive strike.
All this being said, even if Zelensky’s comment was being misinterpreted, it is still a pretty dicey gaff. At least he walked it back. But it doesn’t need to happen again.
All this being said, even if Zelensky’s comment was being misinterpreted, it is still a pretty dicey gaff. At least he walked it back. But it doesn’t need to happen again.
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