re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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He had to know that was a non-starter before he ever said it which makes me wonder why he said it.

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That’s what I was asking myself…. But what intelligence is he seeing that NATO has passed along? We have heard numerous indirect reports of Russia moving forces that have nuke capabilities. NATO intelligence was spot on in February that an attack was eminent.

Zelensky's staff forced to clarify statement after president suggests 'preemptive strike' on Russia.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said the West should have carried out "preemptive strikes, so that (Russians) know what will happen to them if they use it," referring to nuclear weapons. Serhii Nykyforov, Zelensky's spokesperson, explained that the president was referring to preventive sanctions that were to be applied before Russia's full-scale invasion and assured that Ukraine would never call for the use of nuclear weapons.

LINK

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Zelensky's staff forced to clarify statement after president suggests 'preemptive strike' on Russia.

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I think he meant what he said, but I appreciate the walk-back.

This week has been successful. No need to let gaffs like this undermine the success.

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President Volodymyr Zelensky said the West should have carried out "preemptive strikes, so that (Russians) know what will happen to them if they use it," referring to nuclear weapons. Serhii Nykyforov, Zelensky's spokesperson, explained that the president was referring to preventive sanctions that were to be applied before Russia's full-scale invasion and assured that Ukraine would never call for the use of nuclear weapons.

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The cyber attack capabilities of the USA have never even partially been unleashed. Russia would being crippled for almost forever and be split up between other nations and warring mafioso types within Russia if this ever happened.

In Context, the quote makes more sense. The media evidently only wants to sell clicks is going to ignore the intended interpretation and go with the literal interpretation with no context.

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1.) What is the most likely end scenario in this conflict?

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For most of March, I thought that there would be a quick settlement. Putin had failed to take Kyiv and the ineptness of Russian military had been exposed, while Zelensky had a huge incentive to make a deal to get Russian troops off their soil. So, I thought something was reasonable that involved Ukrainian recognition of Russian control of Crimea and some kind of federal status for Donetsk and Luhansk.

But Putin thought he was stronger than he was and refused the deals that were on the table. And after Bucha, any such deal became impossible. Ukraine could never sacrifice any of its citizens to permanent occupation by such barbarians.

So, I think there no scenario where Ukraine is going to quit fighting with Russian control over the Donbas, and I fight it very hard to imagine Ukraine giving up Crimea.

So, if I have to guess, I think that Russia ends up giving up all claim and removing all troops, and I do think that there's an agreement that gives Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk some kind of self-governing federal status as part of Ukraine. That might mean, for example, that Russian could continue to be an official language in those areas -- something like that.

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2.) Will Europe have a major energy crisis this winter?

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Really depends on who you talk to. I think not, but I'm not sure. People have motives to exaggerate this on both sides.

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3.) Is either side gaining momentum in the fight currently?

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Ukraine is on the cusp of an extraordinary victory in retaking the city of Kherson. That's going to be cataclysmic event in Russian politics -- when you might see a coup or civil war or provinces declare independence or something else destabilizing.

Every week, Ukraine gets even more modern NATO equipment -- stuff that's significantly better than Russian equipment, though Russian incompetence has meant that Ukraine has gained hundreds of Russian tanks and other equipment. But Russia has been reduced to pulling tanks out of storage that were last updated in 1975, and Ukraine captured at least 10 of those T-62 tanks this past week.

Ukraine is already much stronger than Russia, and the disparity grows every day.

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1.) How likely is it that NATO is drawn into the conflict thru formal means?

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I put the odds of Putin using a nuclear weapon at something like 10%. It would be a dumb move, but desperate dictators sometimes make really dumb decisions.

Use of a nuclear weapon would likely provoke a direct NATO response. But I don't think that Russia would be able to fight back against NATO and in any non-nuclear war.

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2.) What is general expectation of how long it will be until a resolution to the conflict is reached?

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I don't think that Russia can hold on to Kherson for more than a few weeks, and Ukraine is also going to retake the north of Luhansk Oblast soon.

When that happens, it's going to cause a political crisis in Russia. The Russian will simply not be able to tolerate losing a war on this scale. The crash in the economy, the disconnection from the rest of the world and the hatred of most of it, the tens of thousands of lives lost, and even the tens of thousands of injured lives ... all of that is lot to give up for the glory of winning a war, and it is way, way too much for a losing war.

So, the resolution of the war depends on the resolution of the future Russian political collapse. There are three real power factions in play:

1) The Russian military
2) The FSB (successor to the KGB), and
3) The other siloviki, including Kadryov and Prigozhin

How does Russia's internal conflict between these groups (and, possibly, breakaway republics) end? That's completely unpredictable.

Great post.

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Pure political post.

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Wars are fought for political goals. And I'm convinced that Russia's internal politics will shape the end of the war, because I don't think that Ukraine is going to have the opportunity to truly finish off the Russian army before Russia goes into internal chaos. You can already see different forces positioning themselves to assert power in the coming internal strife.

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WestCoastAg

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Knighting for a guy calling for Nuke War

This thread has gotten to peak levels of awesome