re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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We keep the shipping lanes open. You frick with the shipping lanes, you frick with us. Otherwise, do what you want.

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Isn’t that exactly what Russia is doing when it blocks grain shipments from leaving Ukraine and threatens the global food supply?

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The USA signed one treaty stating it would specifically aid Ukraine if Ukraine was threatend and at least 3 treaties stating it would aid the nonaggressor nation in the event of armed conflict

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What are the treaties, who are the parties, and when and how were they ratified? Would need to know all of that info to form an opinion one way or the other.

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What are the treaties, who are the parties, and when and how were they ratified? Would need to know all of that info to form an opinion one way or the other

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This thread is filled with your opinions.

ISW Update

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Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1

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The Russian information space – composed of Kremlin propagandists, pundits, and milbloggers – registered the defeat as the result of the Russian military command’s failure to send reinforcements in a timely manner, while openly criticizing repeated bureaucratic failures during the mobilization.

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Kadyrov blamed the commander of the Central Military District (CMD), Colonel General Alexander Lapin, for failures around Lyman. Kadyrov’s attacks gained significant traction within the Russian information space and indicate that the rift between Russian traditional and non-traditional forces is likely growing

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The defeat around Lyman also indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin – who has reportedly been micromanaging Russian commanders on the ground – is deprioritizing defending Luhansk Oblast in favor of holding occupied territories in southern Ukraine

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Russia is likely setting conditions to assume legal responsibility for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

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Russian forces conducted a failed ground attack on Kozacha Lopan in northern Kharkiv Oblast on October 1.

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Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces liberated Lyman and are likely clearing the settlement as of October 1.

Russia is likely setting conditions to assume legal responsibility for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

Ukrainian troops are continuing to conduct counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast and setting conditions for future advances.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas of Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces continued routine strikes against Ukrainian rear areas in the south.

Russian military leadership is continuing to compromise the future reconstitution of the force by prioritizing the immediate mobilization of as many bodies as possible for ongoing fighting in Ukraine.

Russian mobilization authorities continue to carry out discriminatory mobilization practices.

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My sauce(s) in Ukraine are saying that those 1500 KIA occurred in the last 18 hours of combat.

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Guys claims his unit alone killed 140 orcs.

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/

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Lots, just us, maybe 140 dead Russians. Like hunting squirrels in a pecan orchard. I have to think Lyman is under our control, but we have no info on that.

We all got split-up into smaller groups, too much contact going on to stay together. here with about 20 guys, trying to make contact with someone to get ammo.

Lot of people on foot, some running down the road, some trying to make their way through the forest to the south of the road. A half-a-dozen Russians came into the woods where we were in a hide to catch our breath and eat, they almost ran into us, but as usual, were moving fast and talking. We cut them down before they knew what was happening. They had little ammo, no med kits, very little food, and no info at all on them except for their phones and some family stuff.

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New War Mapper map of the Lyman area. Fighting has now reached Terny, Yampolivka, and Zarichne.





Interesting fact Russia had occupied Lyman since May 26th.

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So what is the play now that Ukrainian has Lyman? Keep squeezing from the north while laying siege to Kherson in the south I guess. What is the next big target area? Do they try to keep moving east in the north or start to head south towards Donetsk?

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They will definitely keep Kherson under siege. The Ukrainians are not only within HIMARs range of the Dnieper River crossing, but they are within conventional artillery range of the crossings. With drone corrected artillery they can keep Kherson cut off and the Russians will eventually have to surrender or try to flee across a river during an eastern european wet season.

Pushing straight towards Donetsk is a nonstarter because not only is that the strongest part of the Russian front, but there are extensive fortifications built during 8 years of war prior to the invasion that are very close to the current front lines. Even if the Ukrainians broke through the current lines which again are very strong the Russians only have to fall back 20-30 km take up position in those fortifications.

I think the smart play is to put pressure on Kremmina in order to precent Russia from launching a counter offensive against Lyman and push toward Svatove and then move onto Starobil's'k. Capture Starobil's'k and the Ukrainians sever the last rail road in the northern Luhansk oblast. They will also within HIMARs range of Luhansk city and the other 3 rail roads in the Luhansk oblast. Plus the Russians will be forced to fall back across the Russian border or back to the pre-invasion line of demarcation. In one move the Ukrains would liberate the northern half of the Luhansk oblast. Plus there is one of the few 4 lane highways in Ukraine connecting Svatove and the Russian border and with the ground is relatively flat and only one river to deal with between their current lines and the Russian border. With one move they could change the northern most occupied section on the map posted above from red to yellow. With a rare 10+ day break from the fall rains forecasted for the next 2 weeks it's just too good of an opportunity to pass up. With one move they could change the northern most occupied section on the map posted above from red to yellow. It also puts the front lines close enough to Mother Russia that Putin would not dare using a nuke to stop the advance since the fallout would affect Mother Russia. At least that is my thinking.

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It also puts the front lines close enough to Mother Russia that Putin would not dare using a nuke to stop the advance since the fallout would affect Mother Russia.

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He's already made it obvious that he doesn't care about the everyday Russian citizen. I think the possibility of being pushed back into Russia would push him to use small tactical nukes as his soldiers are back. While he might face an attempted coup at home, he may make the calculation that it wouldn't be enough to trigger a nuclear response from the west. This is going to go down as one of the worse miscalculations in modern eastern European history.

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Dunno, just the Lyman offensive cost Russia 2800 Russian lives and 900 POWs,

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And it was blindingly obvious that it was going to happen. Just criminally bad military judgment. I never served, do not have any expertise in military intelligence, and I only read twitter and some other idiots on the internet, so how could I see this coming a mile away and Russian military leadership could not? [Edit: I think everyone but BrianKellyRespecter could see it coming.]

Putin sacrificed those lives so that the fall of Lyman would not happen before his speech.

And we know that Russia doesn't care about its soldiers' lives, but they should care about the equipment that they gave up for no reason. It has to be over 250 tanks, artillery, and other heavy equipment lost. And that's going to prevent them from being able to mount any kind of defense in northern Luhansk Oblast.

Ukraine is now going to roll back Russian forces quickly. Russia doesn't have much of anything left to slow Ukraine down.