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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 9/29/22 at 1:56 pm to
Posted by Burhead
Member since Dec 2014
2100 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

@Archer83Able · 49m "Fundamental decisions" for Ukraine to be made at tomorrow's urgent meeting of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine chaired by President Zelensky, the Secretary of the NSDC Danilov said. (UNIAN)


Wonder what decisions will be announced?
This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 1:56 pm
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

Sham annexations or not if Russia uses nukes there’s no way NATO sits by and does nothing. Putin is really playing with fire. It would take NATO all of about 5 days to completely destroy any Russian presence in Ukraine.


That’s part of why I hope the risk assessment is exaggerated, aside from the obvious loss of life associated. Agree that drags everything to the table and who knows where this goes from there.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8186 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:07 pm to
I can't help but think that Russia is bluffing on the use of nukes. Putin has to know that the world will respond very harshly to that.

By design, tactical nukes are low-yield, with a limited area of damage. From what I was able to Google (I could be very wrong), a 100kt Tactical nuke has a damage area of around 1.9km in radius. Russia would have to deploy multiple tactical nukes to put a dent in the Ukraine army positions. If Russia does pop one or more off, then they better do them all at the same time and make it count; otherwise, they won't have a chance to do it a second time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_nuclear_explosions#:~:text=In%20a%20typical%20air%20burst,megatons%20(Mt)%20of%20TNT.

If Russia uses tactical nukes on civilian targets like power plants, then it's been nice knowing all of you.

ETA: I don't know much about the battlefield impacts of tactical nukes, can any of you provide a better description/expectation of this (not talking about the poltics of it, just the physical results)?
This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 2:20 pm
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

Putin would be done if used a nuclear weapon.


Or is Putin done and that’s why he may use them?
Posted by joemuggs
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2007
617 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

Wonder what decisions will be announced?


Was wondering this myself. Maybe just felt like they wanted to be out there in the press to counter act the announcement of annexation. Only other things i can think are:

- They are going to announce RU staging bases and troop concentrations just across the boarder are fair game for HIMARS etc. (should already have been). Been hearing there are troop concentrations near the boarder in the Belgrod area.

- There's a new Ukr offensive the start of which they've effectively kept under wraps and they are going to announce it (this one is more just wishful thinking on my part).

(Note: just spit-balling here i have not inside info.)
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8186 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:34 pm to
Interesting video from mobilized Russians of their barracks. At one point the guy says they can't find any officers.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1575466184845234176
quote:

The most disgusting barracks for mobiks so far! No water, litter everywhere, but hey, at least it's not an empty field.


And a different video of a bunch of mobilized who were just dumped in an empty field.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1575458737971773440
quote:

Wonders of Russian mobilisation: a bunch of guys were abandoned in an empty field with no command, no accommodation. Given the snow on the ground, they'll have to get through the night somehow.


Girkin commenting on the guys in the empty field
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1575460134981144576
quote:

Girkin reacts, says it definitely won't happen in his unit!


This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 2:37 pm
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8662 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:40 pm to
I can tell you where it goes. It goes to carrier strike groups, F-15 strike eagles and Arleigh Burke destroyers running up Putin’s Black Sea fleet’s assholes. Who knows maybe Vlad is getting tired of his military’s death by a thousand cuts by Ukraine and just wants the kill shot from the west.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8662 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:43 pm to
Is that the first trans army officer that is being charged with giving info to the Russians? Who never saw an issue with letting trans people serve in the military? fricking idiots. I’m sorry I don’t care what you do behind the closed door of your home but the military is no place for freak shows and now it’s biting them in the arse.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8186 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:45 pm to
I think Chelsea Manning was the first.

Posted by joemuggs
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2007
617 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:45 pm to
Seems like good News:

TWEET

quote:

Latest map and report by Russian Rybar indicates the Russian forces at Lyman are now in operational encirclement and there is a "serious risk" of the fall of Lyman and further, the defensive line in the west of "LPR".
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

I can tell you where it goes. It goes to carrier strike groups, F-15 strike eagles and Arleigh Burke destroyers running up Putin’s Black Sea fleet’s a-holes. Who knows maybe Vlad is getting tired of his military’s death by a thousand cuts by Ukraine and just wants the kill shot from the west.


I’m with you, I meant more of a destabilization of the region and other related conflicts that intensify or begin. Does that lead to doing something with Kalingrad? Does this exacerbate the Armenian war. Does Kazakhstan get involved anywhere beneficial to them while Russia is collapsing. Does Belarus collapse? (likely imo). Does this set off anything in the ME thinking we’re distracted or does everyone have that quiet “oh shite” watch party around the world. Does NK feel froggy?
Posted by SlimTigerSlap
Member since Apr 2022
4313 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:49 pm to
quote:

Is that the first trans army officer that is being charged with giving info to the Russians? Who never saw an issue with letting trans people serve in the military? fricking idiots. I’m sorry I don’t care what you do behind the closed door of your home but the military is no place for freak shows and now it’s biting them in the arse.

Coonass Causality
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8186 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:52 pm to
Rybars comments on Lyman
Posted by TigerDoc
Texas
Member since Apr 2004
11915 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:59 pm to
and his map showing it encircled.

Posted by TBoy
Kalamazoo
Member since Dec 2007
28791 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 3:02 pm to
I like how the Rybars speaks of repulsing Ukrainian forces and retreats. If the Russians in Lyman are surrounded, the Ukrainians have the luxury of not having to advance when there is any resistance. They can continue the encirclement and bombardment. The situation for the Russians deteriorates anyway.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8186 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 3:08 pm to
Translated video at link
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1575570319104184321
quote:

The head of Dagestan, Sergei Melikov, has absolutely lost it with Derbent's draft officers after they drove around with megaphones telling *every man* in the city to turn up at the conscription centre

The head of Dagestan has hit out at draft officers in Derbent for driving around the city and telling men over a megaphone to head to recruitment hubs

He apologised to the people of Derbent and branded the move "utter stupidity"



This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 3:09 pm
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30678 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 3:17 pm to
Our favorite Russian talking head Vladimir Solovyov has the sadz:

YT
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30678 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 3:20 pm to
quote:

Interesting video from mobilized Russians of their barracks.


I saw a washing machine, I wonder if they will steal it.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21038 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

If the Russians in Lyman are surrounded, the Ukrainians have the luxury of not having to advance when there is any resistance. They can continue the encirclement and bombardment. The situation for the Russians deteriorates anyway.


Reports are also coming in that Ukrainians took Yampil today. If so, they can go straight north to Tors'ke and put that town in a vise and fully close the cauldron.

I know that it's been raining and that's slowed down the Ukrainian advance, but I still expect Lyman to fall tomorrow.

(Yes, I did think that Lyman would have already fallen, but the weather has been a big factor. And, unfortunately, I see that the forecast there shows rain on five days in the next week.)
Posted by Philzilla2k
Member since Oct 2017
12969 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 3:27 pm to
quote:

Our favorite Russian talking head Vladimir Solovyov has the sadz:

I understand the propaganda aspect of his broadcast, but their seems to be a big disconnect of Russia’s logistic capabilities. Why doesn’t he just say “fight harder boys”, like that pig faced Slav woman who’s on that show?
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