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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 9/29/22 at 3:35 pm to
Posted by joemuggs
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2007
617 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 3:35 pm to
my favorite commentary on the situation!

quote:

Rob Lee


@RALee85
·
20m
This is why we're seeing mobilized reservists in the 1st Tank Army being deployed to Ukraine without training.
Quote Tweet
quote:

Dmitri
@wartranslated
·
54m
Latest map and report by Russian Rybar indicates the Russian forces at Lyman are now in operational encirclement and there is a "serious risk" of the fall of Lyman and further, the defensive line in the west of "LPR".



LINK
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8186 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 3:41 pm to
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1575583117229711361
quote:

Russian correspondent Semyon Pegov says that Ukrainian forces have broken through in the Stavky area of the Lyman pocket, cutting off the Drobysheve-Torske road (and the BARS-13 unit’s main egress route).


Translated
quote:

WarGonzo
Urgently 4 AFU broke through
in the Stavkov area and cut off
Drobyshevo 4
Emergency information is coming in from
the field that the neo-Nazis were able
to break through to the Torskoye
Drobyshevo highway in the Stavkov
area, thus effectively cutting off
Bars-13 (“Russian Legion”) from
the main highway. There is a tough fight
going on. Our heroes are cutting and doing
everything to hold their positions
and prevent the enemy from gaining a
foothold. The situation is extremely
difficult.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21038 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

This has been about the 10th time this been posted
Maybe it will happen this time


Yes, Lukashenko knows that:

1) His army is total crap -- probably the worst in Europe.
2) The people of his nation are largely not in favor of direct Belarusian involvement in the war.

So, he's tried to help his buddy Putin by making regular threats and doing military exercises at the border in an attempt to keep some Ukrainian troops occupied in preparing to defend from a possible Belarusian attack.

But he has resisted Putin's demands that he actually invade, because he knows that his army would get crushed (it's far worse than Russia's army), and he would likely face a coup attempt.

But Luka also knows that, if Putin goes down, he will go down as well. So, at some point, if Luka thinks that Putin is going to go down, he might actually give the order to the Belarusian army to invade Ukraine.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8186 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 4:00 pm to
quote:

But Luka also knows that, if Putin goes down, he will go down as well. So, at some point, if Luka thinks that Putin is going to go down, he might actually give the order to the Belarusian army to invade Ukraine.


I think if that were to happen, Poland would come off the sidelines without invoking Article 5 (I'm not sure how that would work given the amount of US presence in Poland)
Posted by klrstix
Shreveport, LA
Member since Oct 2006
3598 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 4:23 pm to
quote:

(I'm not sure how that would work given the amount of US presence in Poland)



Sounds like prepositioned observers...

Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30677 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 4:30 pm to
quote:

This is why we're seeing mobilized reservists in the 1st Tank Army being deployed to Ukraine without training.


Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8662 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 4:51 pm to
North Korea is last on our minds. If rocket man as Trump liked to call him ever got a wild hair up his arse we wouldn’t ever have to lift a finger. South Korea could wipe the floor with the north in extremely short order. The difference in quality military hardware between those two is absolutely staggering and the south has well trained soldiers even if they would be outnumbered it wouldn’t matter one bit. I still don’t think Putin is stupid enough to use a nuke of any kind besides a tear somewhere over the arctic or something. He knows that would be the end of him.
Posted by Kentucker
Rabbit Hash, KY
Member since Apr 2013
20055 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 4:59 pm to
So tomorrow Putin is going to declare that Russia has annexed four provinces of Ukraine, even though fighting is still happening in all of them. Has anyone heard that he also plans to declare the “Special Military Operation” to be ended?

I heard it on one of the many, many videos I watch about the war but now can’t find it. If, in fact he does this, will it be part of his ploy to say that Ukrainians are invading Russia? Will he then declare war on Ukraine so that he can put into effect a general mobilization of the Russian population?
Posted by SlimTigerSlap
Member since Apr 2022
4313 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 5:24 pm to
Amazing interview with a Russian POW. He and his wife have no soul.

YouTube


Interview is over an hour long.
Posted by joemuggs
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2007
617 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 5:28 pm to
quote:

So tomorrow Putin is going to declare that Russia has annexed four provinces of Ukraine, even though fighting is still happening in all of them. Has anyone heard that he also plans to declare the “Special Military Operation” to be ended?

I heard it on one of the many, many videos I watch about the war but now can’t find it. If, in fact he does this, will it be part of his ploy to say that Ukrainians are invading Russia? Will he then declare war on Ukraine so that he can put into effect a general mobilization of the Russian population?


I've heard people speculate along these lines. That he will declare a cease fire as soon as the annexation is done then when Ukraine doesn't respect that he will blame them for hostilities. No one in the west will take this seriously it is just performative BS for the Russian people. Of course none of us knows what he will do, but this seems to be the prevailing wisdom.

It all sounds ominous but it should be clear it is actually a sign that he is pants shittingly terrified and is desperate to, by any means, pause the combat so he can reform a re-equip his army. It also (along with recent battle field events) suggest the Russian army is actually in even worse shape than we think and the danger is high.
Posted by TigerDoc
Texas
Member since Apr 2004
11915 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 5:38 pm to
Meduza is reporting that Putin has signed the annexations.



In related news, I just held a referendum among the homeless guys who hang out at this 7/11 and now that I'm rightfully the owner, me and the boys are about to help ourselves.



Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21038 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 5:48 pm to
I hope that NATO has a strong response tomorrow. I'll be very upset if it doesn't include Bradley Fighting Vehicles, F-16s, Leopard 2 tanks, etc.

Oh, and it will have to include ATACMS and a removal of the prohibition of attacking "Russian" territory. If it's all Russia, then none of it should be off limits.

And I hope that Ukraine's response is to show off hundreds of POWs taken from Lyman. Let every Russian see that they are fighting a losing war.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30677 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 5:55 pm to
quote:

Russian POW. He and his wife have no soul.


Have you heard the phone intercept where the wife is asking for her husband to bring her various things like patches from dead Ukerain soldiers?
Posted by Kentucker
Rabbit Hash, KY
Member since Apr 2013
20055 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 6:04 pm to
quote:

And I hope that Ukraine's response is to show off hundreds of POWs taken from Lyman


It would appear that the 3,000 Russian soldiers in Lyman will be encircled within the next few days. They only have one road left to escape on and the Ukes are quickly closing in on it.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8662 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 6:06 pm to
I love how this goon on Russian state TV keeps making Russia out to be the victim saying we started this entire war yet it was Russia who rolled over Ukraine’s border in force at midnight on Feb 24th. How dare they defend themselves I guess. Belarus isn’t going to do shite either they are a complete shitshow on another level even from the Russians. Poland would laugh at them. It’s going to be very funny when Vlad sticks his chest out tomorrow about annexing land but the news is going to show mass surrender of Russian forces in Lyman.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16136 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 6:06 pm to
Per H.R. McMaster, there is a lot that the US can do to completely crush Russia within days and never fire a nuke.

quote:

LINK
Posted by AGGIES
Member since Jul 2021
12619 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 6:15 pm to
quote:

Will he then declare war on Ukraine so that he can put into effect a general mobilization of the Russian population?


While it’s a complete sham, that’s my understanding of the plan. But the goal may not be additional mobilization. It may be an attempt to justify use of tactical nukes to “defend Russian territory”
Posted by SlimTigerSlap
Member since Apr 2022
4313 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 6:15 pm to
quote:


Have you heard the phone intercept where the wife is asking for her husband to bring her various things like patches from dead Ukerain soldiers?

Got a link?
Posted by Kentucker
Rabbit Hash, KY
Member since Apr 2013
20055 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 6:18 pm to
quote:

Belarus isn’t going to do shite either they are a complete shitshow on another level even from the Russians. Poland would laugh at them.


I think Poland will drop a big hammer on Belarus if they invade Ukraine. As long as Ukraine is holding their own against Russia, the Poles won’t interfere but Belarus invading would push Poland off the fence.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
139768 posts
Posted on 9/29/22 at 6:19 pm to
quote:

I think if that were to happen,
It already did
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