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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/15/22 at 7:31 am to Chromdome35
Posted on 9/15/22 at 7:31 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I hope we start to see some real movement in the south, that offensive doesn’t seem to be progressing as much as the reporting indicates.
Though ongoing, it looks like the UAF counter attack in the South has stalled. Russian artillery pounded the UAF while staging in open terrain. Aside from bridgeheads, fixing actions in the north and south of the Kherson front seem to have been repulsed, or at the very least, mitigated to a slow grind.
Whether UAF consolidates or attempts to further exploit the Kharkiv breakthrough is an open question.
Politically, the "can the Ukrainians retake and hold ground" argument has been resolved. No doubt paving the way for additional Western aid. Much to the chagrin of our Russian fan boys...
This post was edited on 9/15/22 at 7:51 am
1
Posted on 9/15/22 at 7:41 am to cypher
quote:
The Ministry for Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation claimed that if the US government sends Ukraine long-range missiles, it will make the States "a party to the conflict", and Russia will react "correspondingly".
Source: Russian Kremlin-aligned information agency RIA Novosti, citing Maria Zakharova, press secretary of the Russian Foreign Ministry
Quote: "If Washington decides to supply Kyiv with missiles of a larger range, it will cross the red line and will become a party to the conflict. We are maintaining our right to defend our territories with all means available".
those mother frickers do not want that smoke, i can promise that, biden or no biden, trans leadership or no trans leadership.....if those mothers frickers shoot a missle off at us its game mother fricking on and 80 years of hate is going to be unleashed on those fricks and their country will seize to exist.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 7:43 am to MNCTigah
quote:
Much to the chagrin of our Russian fan boys...
Crickets from most.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 7:50 am to lsu777
I doubt that. Biden will bow down.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 7:51 am to cypher
quote:
"If Washington decides to supply Kyiv with missiles of a larger range, it will cross the red line and will become a party to the conflict. We are maintaining our right to defend our territories with all means available".
Posted on 9/15/22 at 7:57 am to WeeWee
quote:
If Washington decides to supply Kyiv with missiles of a larger range, it will cross the red line and will become a party to the conflict. We are maintaining our right to defend our territories with all means available".
This is at least the 4th or 5th time I can remember that Russia has threatened something like this. You give them weapons we will attack you!!!! If they use those weapons we will hit decision making centers after 4 months of war!!!! If you give them HIMARS we can't guarantee we won't use nukes!!!!
Russia is the boy who cried wolf
Posted on 9/15/22 at 7:58 am to lsu777
quote:
those mother frickers do not want that smoke, i can promise that, biden or no biden, trans leadership or no trans leadership.....if those mothers frickers shoot a missle off at us its game mother fricking on and 80 years of hate is going to be unleashed on those fricks
Can we just just provide the air support and unleash the poles on them? They have hundreds of years worth of revenge on the Russians. We can also untie the Ukrainians hands and unleash the Ukrainians on them. They already have a million man army on Russia's doorstep.
quote:
their country will seize to exist.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 8:16 am to Realityintheface
At the end of last week, you could really feel the momentum Ukraine had on the battlefield. It felt like Russia was one more punch from being totally routed.
I hope Ukraine doesn't pause too long and give Russia time to regroup.
I suspect all the talk about surrendering in the south was Ukrainian Psyops aimed at trying to capitalize on the fears of the Russian troops after the offensive.
I hope Ukraine doesn't pause too long and give Russia time to regroup.
I suspect all the talk about surrendering in the south was Ukrainian Psyops aimed at trying to capitalize on the fears of the Russian troops after the offensive.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 8:18 am to WeeWee
quote:
WeeWee
haha yea kind of blew that spelling huh
Posted on 9/15/22 at 8:29 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
This is at least the 4th or 5th time I can remember that Russia has threatened something like this. You give them weapons we will attack you!!!! If they use those weapons we will hit decision making centers after 4 months of war!!!! If you give them HIMARS we can't guarantee we won't use nukes!!!!
Russia is the boy who cried wolf
Well they have already pissed off the Germans with the NordStream1 shutdown and the Germans have promised to give the Ukrainians with long range missiles that are compatible with the HIMARs. We could give the Ukrainians ATCAMs and change the paint scheme to make them look German. Also we could have Raytheon or Lockhead start mass producing Hrim2s and Sapson missiles for Ukraine and then deny that we made them for Ukraine.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 8:31 am to WeeWee
quote:
Well they have already pissed off the Germans with the NordStream1 shutdown and the Germans have promised to give the Ukrainians with long range missiles that are compatible with the HIMARs. We could give the Ukrainians ATCAMs and change the paint scheme to make them look German. Also we could have Raytheon or Lockhead start mass producing Hrim2s and Sapson missiles for Ukraine and then deny that we made them for Ukraine.
But then the Russians are finally going to unleash the double secret prohibition playbook and totally take the gloves off - Poli board
Posted on 9/15/22 at 8:32 am to cypher
quote:
"If Washington decides to supply Kyiv with missiles of a larger range, it will cross the red line and will become a party to the conflict. We are maintaining our right to defend our territories with all means available".
Despite all of the fear mongering and Russian rhetoric, it's hard to imagine Putin using a tactical nuke, even in an isolated incident such as a detonation on Snake Island or similar.
The U.S. is surely monitoring Object S (warhead storage) facilities. A device would need to be made battle ready. Moved to a military base, mated to a delivery system, then transported into the field. That would amount to a number of hours, if not a day or so for back channel talks and/or alerting the world as to an impending detonation.
Crossing the nuclear threshold, Russia would alienate itself further, specifically with regards to Non-Proliferation Treaty countries... a good bit of Africa and South America.
NATO would respond to the threat of a detonation in Eastern Europe, albeit conventionally. Conventional wisdom is to take the smallest possible step on the escalation ladder. A NATO response could include interdicting while in transport... or afterwards, such as a conventional strike in kind on the battalion that launched it, command structures, etc.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 8:35 am to StormyMcMan
Interesting how Niall Ferguson has flipped on his thoughts about the sanctions and Ukraine's ability.
Note that the Russian troops consist mostly of their outlying districts, aka colonies. General mobilization would mean that middle class is drafted from the cities. NOT a good move for internal politics at all.
LINK
Note that the Russian troops consist mostly of their outlying districts, aka colonies. General mobilization would mean that middle class is drafted from the cities. NOT a good move for internal politics at all.
LINK
Posted on 9/15/22 at 8:38 am to Chromdome35
quote:
At the end of last week, you could really feel the momentum Ukraine had on the battlefield. It felt like Russia was one more punch from being totally routed.
I hope Ukraine doesn't pause too long and give Russia time to regroup.
I suspect all the talk about surrendering in the south was Ukrainian Psyops aimed at trying to capitalize on the fears of the Russian troops after the offensive.
They still out nutnumber Russia at least 5 to 1. They have pushed Russia out of artillery range of their 2nd biggest city. They captures 100+ Russian MBTs which just need a paint job and they will be ready to deploy for Ukraine. They captured MILLIONs of rounds of artillery ammunition for their USSR era artillery, and lots of missiles for their USSR/Russian built SAM systems. It will take time to collect and secure all of that for their use.
Plus geography has turned against them. If they try to approach the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts from the Kharkiv front they will have to fight through hills and valleys with the Russians having the advantage of terrain. However, if they shift their attack to the Zaporizhzhia then they can reinforce their units already fighting on that axis of the front and advance where the terrain favors them. Plus they get added benefit of splitting the Russians in two (even though they practically are already with the rails knocked out in Crimea) and forcing the Russians to abandon the ZNPP.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 8:41 am to WeeWee
I still think that Ukraine will win, I'm just saying I wish they could have sustained their offensive last week or augmented it by punching hard somewhere else.
This post was edited on 9/15/22 at 8:43 am
Posted on 9/15/22 at 8:46 am to MNCTigah
quote:
Despite all of the fear mongering and Russian rhetoric, it's hard to imagine Putin using a tactical nuke, even in an isolated incident such as a detonation on Snake Island or similar.
The U.S. is surely monitoring Object S (warhead storage) facilities. A device would need to be made battle ready. Moved to a military base, mated to a delivery system, then transported into the field. That would amount to a number of hours, if not a day or so for back channel talks and/or alerting the world as to an impending detonation.
Crossing the nuclear threshold, Russia would alienate itself further, specifically with regards to Non-Proliferation Treaty countries... a good bit of Africa and South America.
NATO would respond to the threat of a detonation in Eastern Europe, albeit conventionally. Conventional wisdom is to take the smallest possible step on the escalation ladder. A NATO response could include interdicting while in transport... or afterwards, such as a conventional strike in kind on the battalion that launched it, command structures, etc.
i can almost with 100% certainty say we are monitoring those facilities
if they were going to use even a tatical nuke we would take it out in transit like you said and nato would respond and it would be a true shock and awe.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 8:55 am to lsu777
Posted on 9/15/22 at 8:57 am to WeeWee
quote:
"If Washington decides to supply Kyiv with missiles of a larger range, it will cross the red line and will become a party to the conflict. We are maintaining our right to defend our territories with all means available".
Well its already happened.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 8:57 am to WeeWee
quote:
Well they have already pissed off the Germans with the NordStream1 shutdown and the Germans have promised to give the Ukrainians with long range missiles that are compatible with the HIMARs. We could give the Ukrainians ATCAMs and change the paint scheme to make them look German. Also we could have Raytheon or Lockhead start mass producing Hrim2s and Sapson missiles for Ukraine and then deny that we made them for Ukraine.
I personally think that we already did something like that.
How did Ukraine hit Saki air base? Originally, there was discussion about special ops and sabotage, but last week, the Ukrainian military confirmed that the attack was done with long-rang missiles, which is what all the experts initially believed. This Yahoo News article explains exactly why.
Some have speculated that some version of Grim, Grom, or Hrim (depending on how you spell it), a native Ukrainian cruise missile, was used, but that's unlikely for two reasons:
1) The missile had not been put into production before the war.
2) If Ukraine did have such domestically-produced missiles, it's questionable whether they would have had the ability to launch so many of them so quickly at Saki.
That almost certainly means that Ukraine has ATACMS, because ATACMS strike straight down at Mach 3.5. The straight-down speed of an ATACMS strike means that the projectiles themselves are often invisible on video.
But how could Ukraine have ATACMS if they have not been given US-made long-range missiles? I would say that the answer is in the Korean licensee of those missiles. Korea is quite happy to sell weapons to Poland. There could have even been a little trick where they were shipped 95% assembled, and the final part of the assembly was done in Ukraine, so that the weapons were "Ukrainian-made."
I feel certain that something like that has happened. Ukraine has a very limited supply of ATACMS.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 9:00 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I hope Ukraine doesn't pause too long and give Russia time to regroup.
Denys Davydov may have already been mentioned as a great source who does daily videos about the war. He offers predictions, maps and news.
LINK
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