re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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The Ukrainian demands for peace are going to be a very hard pill for Russia to swallow.

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Which is why I think that negotiations will ultimately be fruitless.

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1) Reparations for the damage

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I can see Russia agreeing to that after haggling over how much.

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2) Withdrawal to the 1991 boundaries including withdrawal from Crimea

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Ukraine is going to open negotiations by demanding Crimea back, but I do not see Russia agreeing to that. I think that deep down the Ukrainians that the return of Crimea is not know it is not going to happen unless they take it by military force. I think they settle on Russia paying Ukraine for Crimea and setting up a joint company or committee or something to manage the exploitation of the northern and eastern parts of Crimea's offshore oil and gas reserves since the EEG's will overlap.

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3) Prosecution of Russian war crimes

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Again I think Russia agrees to that and they will throw the enlisted soldiers and lower ranking officers under the bus, but I do not think they will actually let Ukraine or the International Criminal Court prosecute any of the higher ranking officers or political officials.

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Ukraine has the upper hand there is no reason for them to give Russia an out now.

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The only reason to give Russia an out now is if there is legit intel saying that Russia is getting ready to cause an accident at ZNPP (which I doubt since they are letting the IAEA continue to monitor it), that Russia reinstates the blockade of Odessa (which I doubt since the Russian's naval aviation has abandoned crimea and is unable to cover the Black Sea fleet if it is actually deployed in the Black Sea and the Ukrainian air force has returned to the conflict and its aircraft can now fire western weapons), or Russia is preparing to use nukes on Ukraine. Short of any of those 3 things happening Ukraine should keep up the pressure until they have pushed Russia back across the 1991 borders.

A video from the Russian WarGonzo Telegram channel supposedly showing the Russian repulsing a Ukrainian attack of tanks, IFV's and troops on a village in the Donetsk region.

https://t.me/wargonzo/8218

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??Exclusive??How the Armed Forces of Ukraine entered Peski??

Quite recently, apparently overexcited by the successes on the Kharkov front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine made an attempt to regain control of Peski, a village near Donetsk recaptured from them by the NM DPR.

How this attempt ended can be seen in the video provided to the @wargonzo project by the Somali Battalion.

On several tanks and armored vehicles, the Armed Forces cheerfully entered Peski. And after a while they also cheerfully came out, but not all of them. Some retreated on all fours.

Watch soon on our channel the full video of the battle with the commentary of Son-in-law, deputy battalion commander of Somalia, responsible for this sector of the front.

@wargonzo

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Meanwhile at a Russian depot....

I need 10 cases of tank sabot rounds.

Well, I have 10 cases of caviar but the appointed head of this Oblast has left for Russia, but no tank ammo at all.

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That is not how it works.

This is how it works.
-Russian officer calls Russian supply depot.
-The phone rings and then is answered by someone speaking Russian.
-The Russian officer thinks it is a Russian soldier and says that he needs 10 cases of tank sabot rounds.
-The person on the other end of the phone writes down the location where the rounds are needed. Then says "Thank you for providing us with your location. However, I cannot do send you the ammunition that you requested. This supply depot is now the property of the armed forces of Ukraine. Since you are low on ammunition you can either surrender to the Ukrainian forces and come enjoy some of the caviar that your officers left behind when they fled back to Russia, or you can abandon your equipment and flee back to Russia. Again thank you for providing us with your location, Ukrainian forces have already been alerted to your location, ammunition shortage, and have been dispatched to your location to accept your surrender or to kill you if you decide to fight. Have a nice day."

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I agree, But I think Ukraine has to cut the bridge and take total control of the land bridge. In effect blockade Crimea into submission. Does Russia have any way to supply Crimea besides using ships on the black sea?

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It still has the large car and train ferries that it used before the Crimean bridge was built. Also the infrastructure for the temporary bridge that Russia used to build the Crimean bridge is still in place. So just knocking out the bridge and cutting the land bridge is not going to be enough. Ukraine's military is is going to have to enter Crimea and take it or at least most of it if Ukraine wants Crimea back.

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RUSSIAN KHERSON DEFENSE LINES HAVE COLLAPSED, UKRAINIAN HEAVY ARMOR BREAK-THRU HEADING SOUTH TOWARDS CRIMEA UNOPPOSED. ROAD TO MARIUPOL APPEARS CLEARED & UNDEFENDED

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LINK

Unconfirmed but big if true.

Oh and if anyone was wondering how the collapse of the Kherson front clears the way to Mariupol it is simple. Ukraine uses Russia's pontoon bridges or builds its own near Nova Kakhova then takes the E58 highway to Melitopol and then continue along the E58 until it reaches Mariupol. It is not a straight shot and it is 400 km long but the E58 is the road to Mariupol.

I’m going for Russia.

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I’m going for Russia.

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It’s a natural impulse to cheer for the weaker team. My wife does that when we watch football. She hates a blowout and feels sorry for the loser..

There will be a large fight for Sevastopol I don’t see Russia just giving that up like they have territory this week. That’s a major naval base for them. If the Ukrainians were to take it though this war is all but over because it would mean that the Ukrainians had already fought their way all the way to the southern coast of Crimea. They would have no real reason to stay with it’s major port and naval base taken away. This is where Ukraine not having a real navy hurts them though. I’ve always thought Crimea would be the greatest prize to return to Ukraine but also the one that is the least likely.

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Nah.. just really skeptical of the mainstream narrative.

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Like what specifically?