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Posted on 9/4/22 at 11:35 am to ned nederlander
quote:Folks being cold and hungry this Winter in Germany will make the current German policy schwieriger zu verkaufen (harder to sell).
Once the gas flow is fully shut there is no more reason for fence sitting by Germany.
Posted on 9/4/22 at 11:37 am to doubleb
I provide the link to Perun's latest YouTube video provide his analysis, "6 Months of War in Ukraine - Economics, Endurance & the Energy War"
Perun: 6 months of War in Ukraine
It's a long presentation, but worth the watch as usual.
I'm not detailing the analysis because I have work to do, but just providing the link because I wanted to post a transcript of a comment posted in the Comments section by a Russian because I like to see the thinking of those in the nations directly involved in the conflict.
The comment is by a Russian University student responding to another comment provides an interesting perspective on much of the Russian public's mindset before the war was launched.
"??????? ???????
1 hour ago
Yes it was predictable, but everyone missed it. I remember at our debates in university in February I was the only one who suggested why it was not possible to take a country like Ukraine with the modest forces amassed. But everyone said “no, look at Iraq. They had big army and so on but America smashed them”. It was not received well when I showed how we are not America and Ukraine is not Iraq. Even by those who should know better, like older/graduate students and so on. I was apparently the naive one - this blasé attitude reigned at every level and amongst every decision maker and influential person.
The story went like this. They believed that our military was near-peer to America - how an economy like Russia could build such a machine was never expressed. Shock and awe would destroy them, because Ukraine is divided and corrupt (unlike us, I suppose?), western help would not have time to arrive, Zelensky and cadres would flee, and Ukraine would be friendly again.
Anyone could see the flaws, but to point them out was either considered idiocy or treason.
I didn’t think air would be so bad though. It was 14 years since Georgia. Shocking performance."
Perun: 6 months of War in Ukraine
It's a long presentation, but worth the watch as usual.
I'm not detailing the analysis because I have work to do, but just providing the link because I wanted to post a transcript of a comment posted in the Comments section by a Russian because I like to see the thinking of those in the nations directly involved in the conflict.
The comment is by a Russian University student responding to another comment provides an interesting perspective on much of the Russian public's mindset before the war was launched.
"??????? ???????
1 hour ago
Yes it was predictable, but everyone missed it. I remember at our debates in university in February I was the only one who suggested why it was not possible to take a country like Ukraine with the modest forces amassed. But everyone said “no, look at Iraq. They had big army and so on but America smashed them”. It was not received well when I showed how we are not America and Ukraine is not Iraq. Even by those who should know better, like older/graduate students and so on. I was apparently the naive one - this blasé attitude reigned at every level and amongst every decision maker and influential person.
The story went like this. They believed that our military was near-peer to America - how an economy like Russia could build such a machine was never expressed. Shock and awe would destroy them, because Ukraine is divided and corrupt (unlike us, I suppose?), western help would not have time to arrive, Zelensky and cadres would flee, and Ukraine would be friendly again.
Anyone could see the flaws, but to point them out was either considered idiocy or treason.
I didn’t think air would be so bad though. It was 14 years since Georgia. Shocking performance."
Posted on 9/4/22 at 11:41 am to soccerfüt
quote:
Folks being cold and hungry this Winter in Germany will make the current German policy schwieriger zu verkaufen (harder to sell).
Thank god for global climate change. There are some upsides to it or do the Europeans always want to be cold for no good reason?
Posted on 9/4/22 at 12:01 pm to aTmTexas Dillo
Jon Stewart presents award to Ukranian Nazi in Disney World
Finally Walt Disney's dream has come true. Really strange how they just can't help but continually praise Nazis in Ukraine.
Finally Walt Disney's dream has come true. Really strange how they just can't help but continually praise Nazis in Ukraine.
This post was edited on 9/4/22 at 12:18 pm
Posted on 9/4/22 at 1:10 pm to soccerfüt
quote:
Once the gas flow is fully shut there is no more reason for fence sitting by Germany.Folks being cold and hungry this Winter in Germany will make the current German policy schwieriger zu verkaufen (harder to sell).
That’s clearly the play. Cutting the flow of gas is probably the biggest non-nuclear gun in the Russian arsenal, and I’m surprised to see it fired in full at the tail end of summer.
A problem for the Russians though is this particular weapon is aimed primarily at Germany whose approach in all this has largely been as a pro-Ukrainian neutral. I’m not sure cold Germans have much influence over the US, the UK and the eastern euro countries most actively arming, training and coordinating with the Ukrainians.
At least to me this move seems as likely to move Germany into being a more aggressive supporter of Ukraine versus diminishing US, UK and Polish support for the Ukraine.
Posted on 9/4/22 at 1:32 pm to ned nederlander
This is Russia’s big card and playing it now has to tell Germany that depending on Russia fir anything is not sound national policy, and they need to review their mid and long term plans for energy.
Posted on 9/4/22 at 1:34 pm to doubleb
quote:
has to tell Germany that depending on Russia fir anything is not sound national policy, and they need to review their mid and long term plans for energy.
Some Orange man told them this like 4 years ago and they arrogantly laughed at him
Posted on 9/4/22 at 1:42 pm to OMLandshark
It’s funny how you say you’re not pro Russia yet you always want to talk about nazis like they aren’t in Russia too. There are fringe groups in every country on earth. Take the Russian dick out of your mouth long enough to think before you make stupid comments.
Posted on 9/4/22 at 1:46 pm to ned nederlander
Posted on 9/4/22 at 1:47 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
It’s funny how you say you’re not pro Russia yet you always want to talk about nazis like they aren’t in Russia too. There are fringe groups in every country on earth. Take the Russian dick out of your mouth long enough to think before you make stupid comments.
Question: Are we directly funding a state funded Nazi brigade in Russia? No? Then false equivalency.
Posted on 9/4/22 at 1:52 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Interesting if true, That puts the entire Crimea area in range. The Kerch Bridge is now hittable.
Ukraine does not need to strike the bridge itself to significantly damage the GLOC from Crimea. The ferries across the Kerch Straits are still operational even though the bridge is open. They could use the ferries to take the load off the bridge if needed. It would still be less supplies moving into Crimea but it would not be shut off. However, About 5 kms inland from the Crimean bridge is a railyard and if the Ukrainians hit it with HIMARs using JFS-M missiles or Hrim2 ballistic missiles or special forces. If they destroy that rail yard then trains would be forced to unload onto trucks on the Russian side of the Kerch Straits and either drive across the Crimean bridge or the Kerch strait ferries.
What is the size of the warhead on these? The reason I ask is because the Ukrainians know that they will face the wrath of Russia when they strike the Crimean Bridge. So when Ukraine strikes the Crimean bridge they want to bring it down. They don't want to give the Russians a reason to fully mobilize or use a tactical nuke if all they get in return is a damaged bridge that is repaired a month later.
Posted on 9/4/22 at 1:58 pm to OMLandshark
cucks for Ukraine have been taking in a whole lot of copium the past few days. President Penis Pianist is not looking too hot after the great Kherson offensive. how embarrassing.
Posted on 9/4/22 at 1:59 pm to LSUPilot07
Its funny that nazis are bad and communists are good. They are both equally evil.
Posted on 9/4/22 at 2:02 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Nobody wants to do business with criminals, criminals tend to steal all the money.
Posted on 9/4/22 at 2:04 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
Its funny that nazis are bad and communists are good. They are both equally evil.
Two sides of the same coin. They are simply siblings that view leftist ideology differently.
No matter what, government control is the end result.
Posted on 9/4/22 at 2:08 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
It’s funny how you say you’re not pro Russia yet you always want to talk about nazis like they aren’t in Russia too.
Your false equivalency is...false.
The US government is utilizing Nazi worshipping Ukrainians to fight Russia...okay.
We supported the mujahideen to fight the Soviets.
It is what it is.
Your post was a bullshite deflection. Put your Pom Poms down a look at the reality of the circumstances.
Posted on 9/4/22 at 2:09 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Cutting the flow of gas is probably the biggest non-nuclear gun in the Russian arsenal, and I’m surprised to see it fired in full at the tail end of summer.
It would seem to make the most sense from a tactical standpoint- no?
Posted on 9/4/22 at 2:13 pm to aTmTexas Dillo
quote:
Folks being cold and hungry this Winter in Germany will make the current German policy schwieriger zu verkaufen (harder to sell).
quote:
Thank god for global climate change. There are some upsides to it or do the Europeans always want to be cold for no good reason?
I love how there is a group of posters that think it will be rainbows and butterflies in Germany this winter. I’m not of that opinion. One of us will be wrong. Time will tell.
Posted on 9/4/22 at 2:16 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
Its funny that nazis are bad and communists are good. They are both equally evil.
One is just an alternate of the other. Neither side is worth defending.
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