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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:30 pm to Kentucker
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:30 pm to Kentucker
quote:
Russia has a long history of bullying behavior and land grabbing. To be the world’s largest country, by far, based upon landmass, that culture sure wants other nations’ land.
To permanently put an end to their antisocial culture, I think Russia should be broken up into several countries. Russians have a primitive tribal attitude towards the rest of the world - if they can take something from someone else they will and not feel guilty about it.
1. Ukraine is not going to be able to march on Moscow or drive Putin across the Ural. The best that Ukraine can hope to achieve is to drive Russia out of its territory and regain Crimes. That is not going to be a enough to break up Russia. In order to break up Russia it would take NATO going to war and a few nukes being exchanged. I don't think anyone is in favor of either of those things.
2. Breaking up Russia would be a disaster. It would be a combination of the breakup of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. The federal republics of Chechyna and Dagistan might be able to be split off from Russia without many problems, but how the f**k are you going to divide the rest of it? The Russian population is 81% ethnic Russian and ethnic Russians make up the majority of the population in most of the oblasts and federal republics. So trying to break Russia up by ethnicity is out. Here is a map of Russia based on languages.
Good freaking luck trying to break that up. Plus how will you break up its military and economic assets? The USSR broke up its military based on where units were stationed which is how Ukraine got a military made of thousands of top tier T64s and T80s in the 1990s (prior to 30 years of corruption and decay) and Russia got a military made up of thousands of second tier T72s. It is also how Ukraine and Belarus originally got 100s of tier 1 fighter planes while Russia got the strategic bomber force. If you followed a similar model you would get a strong european Russia with ethnic Russia and a weak Asian Russia made up of ethnic Russians. They would either rejoin or be absorbed into China. So like it or not, you ain't breaking Mother Russia.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:32 pm to TBoy
quote:
Beyond Ukraine
A second blast tore through the Russian town of Timonovo, with ammunition exploding. Local officials released a statement after the explosion explaining that the sun caused it.
The Sun God favors the Ukrainians. Lol.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:35 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
I figured. I can pull up all your fake tinder girls posts trying to pretend you are on the ground getting info
1. I never claimed to be on the ground in Minsk. I just asked two girls on tinder if they heard loud booms which they said they did.
2. The fact that you are obsessed over that just goes to show how mental you really are.
3. I was in Ukraine a few weeks ago, not Belarus which is where Minsk is. I was in Ukraine a few weeks ago, not in March when I made that statement. So if you are going to try and insult or shite throw at least get the countries and the timeline correct.

This post was edited on 8/24/22 at 7:40 pm
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:42 pm to WeeWee
All you have done is lie for 1500 pages
All i said was its crazy to be sending billions of dollars to a corrupt country. And that Vlad wants the rescources
Death wishes on me for that. Mutiple whining ra's by clowns who have now vanished from this thread
Sorry you dont like getting called out
All i said was its crazy to be sending billions of dollars to a corrupt country. And that Vlad wants the rescources
Death wishes on me for that. Mutiple whining ra's by clowns who have now vanished from this thread
Sorry you dont like getting called out
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:45 pm to BayouBlitz
quote:
Beyond Ukraine
A second blast tore through the Russian town of Timonovo, with ammunition exploding. Local officials released a statement after the explosion explaining that the sun caused it.
The Sun God favors the Ukrainians. Lol.
No it was just another accident involving a lucky strike.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:49 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Breaking up Russia would be a disaster.
Only a true fringe pie-in-the-sky optimist could see it any other way. As you correctly point out, any effort to dominate Russia would trigger the existential decision of whether anyone would survive. Same goes for China. While the world population would be better off in the long run without these national organizations, elimination is well beyond the ability of anyone to pull off.
So the better course is to help Ukraine stop them now. Every once in a while they need to be checked. If they aren’t checked, they get too ambitious and put us all at risk with their reckless empire building ambitions.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:56 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
All you have done is lie for 1500 pages
quote:
All i said was its crazy to be sending billions of dollars to a corrupt country. And that Vlad wants the rescources
Why have you been saying the same thing for 6 months? Don't you have anything better to do with your life?
quote:
Death wishes on me for that. Mutiple whining ra's by clowns who have now vanished from this thread
quote:
Sorry you dont like getting called out
I have no problem with being called out if it is factual or relevant or anything close to rational. However, your obsession of the Minsk tinder girls is not rational, relevent, and taken completely out of context. You need to find a hobby before you go completely crazy like OMLandshark.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:01 pm to WeeWee
Serious question, when do you expect Ukraine’s assault on Kherson to begin?
Winter is fast approaching and with it comes quite a bit of overcast skies which will hinder Ukraines ability to do targeting with our precision munitions.
Winter is fast approaching and with it comes quite a bit of overcast skies which will hinder Ukraines ability to do targeting with our precision munitions.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:06 pm to RLDSC FAN
Saw this thread on the front page for the first time in weeks tonight.
In case you're wondering, the last 1000 pages of this thread are roughly 6 posters going back and forth about nonsense. This is the least consequential issue of our time and this board eats it the frick up
In case you're wondering, the last 1000 pages of this thread are roughly 6 posters going back and forth about nonsense. This is the least consequential issue of our time and this board eats it the frick up
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:14 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Russians there are already pilfering for food. Waiting until they also use up all of their ammo, then the Babushkas are going to yank them by the ears and throw them into the Dnipro to see if they can swim
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:28 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Serious question, when do you expect Ukraine’s assault on Kherson to begin?
I really don’t have a clue. I believe that the Ukrainians are waiting on two thing. One is for the Russians to deplete their supply of artillery ammunition on the western bank of the Dnieper. The second is for the marshes and wetlands of the Inhulets river to continue to dry up in the heat and drought. I have not had any of my sauce(s) confirm that but my friend’s unit which was part of the reserves around Dnipro has been sent to a front but I don’t know which one.
quote:
Winter is fast approaching and with it comes quite a bit of overcast skies which will hinder Ukraines ability to do targeting with our precision munitions.
Winter doesn’t become an issue in the southern part of Ukraine until almost Christmas time. Personally I think that the Ukrainians are going to come out of Dnipro and drive towards the Sea of Azov and cut the Russians in two. Then start pushing the Russians back away from Melitopol and into Crimea until the winter. I don’t know if they actually try and force the issue in Kherson city itself or just wait for the Russians to try and flee the city before they are abandoned by the rest of the Russian army.
This post was edited on 8/24/22 at 8:31 pm
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:50 pm to WeeWee
ISW update
quote:
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated on August 24 that Russian forces are slowing down the overall pace of their offensive operations in Ukraine while reaffirming that Russia’s objectives in the war have not changed
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces have lost an area larger than Denmark since the high-water mark of their invasion of Ukraine in mid-March and gained an area the size of Andorra (one percent of what they have lost) in the last 39 days.
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reaffirmed that Russia has not changed its maximalist strategic war aims.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest and southeast of Izyum, northeast and south of Bakhmut, and west and southwest of Donetsk City.
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian military assets and ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.
Russian occupation authorities continue to face partisan and internal challenges to the administration of occupation agendas.
Russian proxy leadership is continuing efforts to oversee the legislative and administrative integration of occupied territories into Russian systems.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:55 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian forces have lost an area larger than Denmark since the high-water mark of their invasion of Ukraine in mid-March and gained an area the size of Andorra (one percent of what they have lost) in the last 39 days.

Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:07 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Personally I think that the Ukrainians are going to come out of Dnipro and drive towards the Sea of Azov and cut the Russians in two. Then start pushing the Russians back away from Melitopol and into Crimea until the winter. I don’t know if they actually try and force the issue in Kherson city itself or just wait for the Russians to try and flee the city before they are abandoned by the rest of the Russian army.
This is kinda what I think too. The first actual "feint" in this war was Ukraine talking about retaking Kherson, while the real attack comes to the east of there. Even just going far enough south to take Tokmak cuts the rail line.
But yeah, the Ukrainians are going to completely cut off the Russian forces north and west of the Dnipro and just wait them out. There's no need for a huge mechanized offensive there. When the Russians run out of food, ammo, and fuel, they will have to retreat.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:25 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But yeah, the Ukrainians are going to completely cut off the Russian forces north and west of the Dnipro and just wait them out. There's no need for a huge mechanized offensive there. When the Russians run out of food, ammo, and fuel, they will have to retreat.
Those 25,000 or so Russian soldiers on the west side of the river are screwed. Not many are going to be able to get across the new pontoon bridge before the HIMARS send it to the bottom of the river. The Ukrainians are already within conventional artillery range of both banks if the Dnieper and if the Russians try to cross using the ferries then it won’t take long before the Ukrainian artillery makes the banks of the Dnieper loop like the bank of the Soverski Donetsk River.
The main reason why I think that the main Ukrainian thrust will come on the east bank of the Dnieper is that the bridges across the Dnieper around Kherson are blown and a Ukrainian pontoon bridge is just as vulnerable to artillery as a Russian one. However, the bridges further north are intact so Ukraine is going to have to come from the east bank if it wants to liberate the entire Kherson oblast and not just Kherson city.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 10:37 pm to WeeWee
quote:British MOD
We pretty much accept, well, we do accept, the sort of observations of Russian losses to be – if you combine deaths, injuries, desertions – over 80,000 of their armed forces. That’s 80,000 in six months compared to 15,000 they lost in a decade in Afghanistan," Wallace said.
Damn 80,000 K/W/C that’s a lot of casualties for a “special military operation” that was only supposed to last a week.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 11:43 pm to WeeWee
Saw this on Reddit, but have also seen the quote reported multiple places.
I find it Interesting that Ukraine considers regaining all of Crimea as a top priority. Erdogan us publicly stated she doesn’t support Russia’s claim to Crimea. The 2014 annexation should not have been tolerated.
quote:
Today, Turkish President Erdogan announced that Crimea belongs to Ukraine: "Turkey does not recognize the annexation of Crimea and considers this step illegal. According to international law, Crimea should be returned to Ukraine," Erdogan stressed.
I find it Interesting that Ukraine considers regaining all of Crimea as a top priority. Erdogan us publicly stated she doesn’t support Russia’s claim to Crimea. The 2014 annexation should not have been tolerated.
This post was edited on 8/24/22 at 11:45 pm
Posted on 8/25/22 at 5:24 am to WeeWee
quote:
To permanently put an end to their antisocial culture, I think Russia should be broken up into several countries.
quote:
Breaking up Russia would be a disaster.
Both correct. However, the break-up of Russia into smaller independent states is the only long-term solution. If we want generational peace and energy security in Euro-Asia we have to end the power centered in Moscow. Merkel’s attempt at economic inclusion famously didn’t work. Nice try, no cigar. Psychopathic fascist oligarchies will always see the world in terms of zero sum economies. The concept of shared growth through money velocity doesn’t exist for thieves.
Yes, the break-up of Russia would be a disaster - if it were attempted militarily. But that would not be the smart way to do it. The smart way is the 1991 way. Focus on those 'Constituent Republics within the Russian Federation' as a start. Add to that cultural and religious differences as well as the vast distances from Moscow.
The reason the old USSR was broken up was due to economic weapons. Isolating the Russian economy from external support. Cutting global trade, technology and finance to the USSR, thus flat-lining money velocity and its exponential effects in the late 20th Century. If you want to visit the battlefield that ended the Soviet Union, just pull a US greenback out of your wallet.
How do we go about this? By taking advantage of Moscow’s two massive weaknesses – their almost complete dependence on energy exports and the geological fact that of all the oil and gas deposits in Russia, almost none are located in Western Russia. Practically none are located in the Volgograd - Moscow – St. Petersburg axis, the heart of the ethnic Russian population.
Step one, cut all purchases of Russian energy. This won’t happen overnight, but replacement oil and gas from other sources is being done already and will continue. The sanction busting purchases for resale by the Indian and Middle Eastern groups have to stop. Cut their resale customers and make an example out of a few recalcitrants. Don’t negotiate with Modi, just do it. If the doors to Indian trade to the West are closed, that leaves them choosing between their best buds Pakistan and China. You hate to see it.
Step two, after Russian energy sales are killed, restart oil and gas purchases on a limited basis from the outlying areas of Russia where the oil and gas fields are located and have logistic connections to the West. And here’s the important part – pay the local government, not Moscow. The critical strategy is to separate Moscow from the Russian oil and gas revenue just as Moscow is separated from the oil and gas production fields. Use the corrupt government model already well established in Russia to set up local strongmen as receivers of the payments. You can always find such people that understand the advantages of keeping all the money for themselves as opposed to sending it to Moscow. If they need support for security, that can be provided. After all, what is Moscow going to do about it? In the Trans-Urals, money talks. Propaganda about Mother Russia without better money or military force won’t get it.
Continue strengthening the financial and security ties to the energy production areas and gradually add more and more areas under the Western umbrella, isolating Moscow in every way possible. Within a decade we could have fifteen ‘-Stans independent of Moscow and dependent on the West. Leaving the remaining Russia a fraction of its former size, with a revenue stream the size of Belarus. That is what peace and energy security for our grandchildren looks like.
Posted on 8/25/22 at 5:25 am to SDVTiger
quote:
I figured. I can pull up all your fake tinder girls posts trying to pretend you are on the ground getting info
Every time you bring this up I have to laugh a little because it is a very creative use of HUMINT. With a little effort you could gather some basic useful intelligence without access to Keyhole or FIRMS data to augment OSINT.
Posted on 8/25/22 at 6:45 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 25 August 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
In early March, Russian ground forces assaulted and seized Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). On 21 August 2022, imagery indicated that Russia maintained an enhanced military presence at the site, with armoured personnel carriers deployed within 60 metres of reactor number five. Russian troops were probably attempting to conceal the vehicles by parking them under overhead pipes and gantries.
Russia is probably prepared to exploit any Ukrainian military activity near ZNPP for propaganda purposes. While Russia maintains the military occupation of ZNPP, the principal risks to reactor operations are likely to remain disruption to the reactors' cooling systems, damage to its back-up power supply, or errors by workers operating under pressure.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 25 August 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
In early March, Russian ground forces assaulted and seized Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). On 21 August 2022, imagery indicated that Russia maintained an enhanced military presence at the site, with armoured personnel carriers deployed within 60 metres of reactor number five. Russian troops were probably attempting to conceal the vehicles by parking them under overhead pipes and gantries.
Russia is probably prepared to exploit any Ukrainian military activity near ZNPP for propaganda purposes. While Russia maintains the military occupation of ZNPP, the principal risks to reactor operations are likely to remain disruption to the reactors' cooling systems, damage to its back-up power supply, or errors by workers operating under pressure.
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