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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/18/22 at 6:46 am to WeeWee
Posted on 8/18/22 at 6:46 am to WeeWee
quote:
Well the markets are reacting to one of the world’s largest wheat exporters being able to export its wheat again. The price will sky rocket again when Russia reimposes a blockade on Odessa.
So buy wheat instead of OJ?
1
Posted on 8/18/22 at 7:05 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 18 August 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
The heavy attrition of Russian Main Battle Tanks in Ukraine is highly likely partially due to Russia's failure to fit and properly employ adequate Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA). Used correctly, ERA degrades the effectiveness of incoming projectiles before they hit the tank. This suggests that Russian forces have not rectified a culture of poor ERA use, which dates back to the First Chechen War in 1994.
It is highly likely that many Russian tank crews lack the training to maintain ERA, leading to either poor fitting of the explosive elements, or it being left off entirely. These deficiencies probably contribute to the widespread incidents of turret ejection, which are well documented in eye-witness videos from Ukraine.
The war has seen numerous failures by Russian commanders to enforce low-level battle discipline - such as the use of ERA. The cumulative effect of these failures is likely a significant factor behind the poor performance of Russia's forces.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 18 August 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
The heavy attrition of Russian Main Battle Tanks in Ukraine is highly likely partially due to Russia's failure to fit and properly employ adequate Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA). Used correctly, ERA degrades the effectiveness of incoming projectiles before they hit the tank. This suggests that Russian forces have not rectified a culture of poor ERA use, which dates back to the First Chechen War in 1994.
It is highly likely that many Russian tank crews lack the training to maintain ERA, leading to either poor fitting of the explosive elements, or it being left off entirely. These deficiencies probably contribute to the widespread incidents of turret ejection, which are well documented in eye-witness videos from Ukraine.
The war has seen numerous failures by Russian commanders to enforce low-level battle discipline - such as the use of ERA. The cumulative effect of these failures is likely a significant factor behind the poor performance of Russia's forces.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 7:16 am to WeeWee
quote:
The price will sky rocket again when Russia reimposes a blockade on Odessa.
I doubt there’ll be any more blockades of Odessa now that Ukraine’s western weapons are coming online.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 7:49 am to Kentucker
Something else big is burning in Crimea. I haven't seen the footage before and I checked the weather radar for Crimea and it has been raining over a lot of Northern, Central and Eastern Crimea today so I would guess it is new footage. The closest previous smoke plume was of the railroad ammo dump and the weather that day was clear.
Twitter
Screen grab for those that hate Twitter
Forgot to share this one
Screen grab for those that hate Twitter
Forgot to share this one
This post was edited on 8/18/22 at 7:51 am
Posted on 8/18/22 at 8:33 am to WeeWee
Scott Ritter's UN inspection team trained a biz friends equipment yard in Hainesport, NJ. The entire staff is likely still laughing at what dunces they were. If they found any manufacturing for chem weapons agents, they would have never known what they were looking at.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 8:36 am to DownshiftAndFloorIt
A rifle reaches higher than a shotgun.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 8:37 am to Obtuse1
Traders gonna trade like scared rabbits at the idea of instability. Somebody made a lot of money while somebody lost a lot of money
Posted on 8/18/22 at 8:51 am to jimmy the leg
quote:
So buy wheat instead of OJ?
Possibly. I don’t like places in the grain markets, but I highly doubt that the Russians don’t try to reimpose the blocking if the war continues to turn against them.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 8:58 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
not even close to the Q thread. that was like 5000 pages
Well this war is not close to being over so it very well could top it and be the longest thread in TD history by the time the war is settled.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 9:09 am to Kentucker
quote:
I doubt there’ll be any more blockades of Odessa now that Ukraine’s western weapons are coming online.
HIMARs cannot hit a moving target like a ship. We have seen that the more modern Russian ships have better air defenses than the Moskva did. Unless Ukraine gets a new infusion of ASMs from the west or the Ukrainians are able to produce a lot more Neptune ASMs, Ukraine will continue to have to hold it’s Harpoons in reserve to prevent Russia from using its navy to assist in the war in the south. The only thing that is stopping Russia from intercepting ships coming to or leaving from Odessa is the threat of Turkey getting involved on the side of Ukraine. I don’t trust Ergodan to actually backup his threats if Russia does reimpose the blockade and I definitely don’t trust Putin to honor the agreement for long.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 9:33 am to Obtuse1
This is a now series of strikes that seem outside of GLMRS range. Do we think this is ATACMS?
Posted on 8/18/22 at 9:47 am to TigerDoc
Central Infighting Agency (CIA) Intelligence Update - 18AUG22 10:00
Key Notes:
(1) Little ground appears to be gained in either direction, as both sides continue to dig in
(2) Strong evidence points to tension and animosity far pre-dating the current conflict
Summary:
The battle of the "OT" vs. "Poliboard" drags on, with little sign to no sign of progress, and despite significant name calling, there is still no sign of anyone's opinion actually being changed on any topic whatsoever.
Key Notes:
(1) Little ground appears to be gained in either direction, as both sides continue to dig in
(2) Strong evidence points to tension and animosity far pre-dating the current conflict
Summary:
The battle of the "OT" vs. "Poliboard" drags on, with little sign to no sign of progress, and despite significant name calling, there is still no sign of anyone's opinion actually being changed on any topic whatsoever.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:15 am to WeeWee
quote:
I definitely don’t trust Putin to honor the agreement for long.
Yeah but they covet that seat at the Security Council table. Pretty sure that was the leverage that got the wheat moving.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:45 am to Lakeboy7
That seat was guaranteed in the original charter of the UN. It would be difficult to change. The UN backed South Korea because Russia was absent when the Security Council met thus did not cast a vote for their own proxy invasion of South Korea. When the war turned sour, they handed it over to China.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 11:23 am to BRIllini07
quote:
The battle of the "OT" vs. "Poliboard" drags on, with little sign to no sign of progress, and despite significant name calling, there is still no sign of anyone's opinion actually being changed on any topic whatsoever.
Right now I see it like this. Russia invaded as a 35 point favorite. They got their nose bloodied early and fell behind by a TD.
Since then Russia has used their muscle to launch a comeback to take a seven point lead. It could be more, but they were stymied by some penalties and a couple of turnovers.
The third quarter is now underway and Ukraine has begun to move the ball some, and Russia had been bogged down and is still making mistakes. Ukraine won’t go away. Russia keeps making mistakes.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 11:25 am to TigerDoc
quote:
this is ATACMS?
Probably or they have had some serious help with homegrown guidance capabilities.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 11:30 am to doubleb
quote:
Right now I see it like this. Russia invaded as a 35 point favorite. They got their nose bloodied early and fell behind by a TD.
Since then Russia has used their muscle to launch a comeback to take a seven point lead. It could be more, but they were stymied by some penalties and a couple of turnovers.
The third quarter is now underway and Ukraine has begun to move the ball some, and Russia had been bogged down and is still making mistakes. Ukraine won’t go away. Russia keeps making mistakes.
Russia has basically won bro. It's over. That's why they couldn't even have their gay little naval parade in the Black Sea even though Ukraine doesn't have a fricking Navy. Kiev will fall any day now.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 11:38 am to TigerDoc
quote:
This is a now series of strikes that seem outside of GLMRS range. Do we think this is ATACMS?
My sauce(s) in Ukraine have confirmed that those were field tests of Ukraine’s homemade ballistic missiles the Hrim2 which is also known as the Thunder2. Also Western experts are saying that the blast craters from the Saky airfield strike are too wide for the ATACMS to make. The Hrim2/Thunder2 has a warhead 3 times the of the ATACMS so the western analysis backsup my friends’ story. My sauce(s) also confirmed that Ukraine has a hidden stockpile of these missiles and they have 10 or more of the extended range version that can hit Moscow but they are saving those as a weapon of last resort or retaliation if Russia causes a nuclear accident in Ukraine.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 11:43 am to WeeWee
quote:
My sauce(s) also confirmed that Ukraine has a hidden stockpile of these missiles
I hope they aren’t hidden in Kiev. Word on the street is it’s about to fall.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 11:48 am to WeeWee
quote:I was present at LSA Bushmaster in April of 2003 when a small cache was accidentally uncovered by an engineer who was using a bulldozer to construct a berm. Several soldiers were exposed and were medevaced out of theater.
There were some chemical weapons that were found, but it was not made public. I have no idea what condition those weapons were in and if they could be used as chemical weapons or why it was kept secret. However, soldiers were hurt when they were attempting to dispose of them.
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