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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/17/22 at 10:41 am to gizmothepug
Posted on 7/17/22 at 10:41 am to gizmothepug
quote:
The current war in Europe could have been prevented in the 40’s right after the fall of Germany, but evidently a fender bender kills a General but not his dog. The Russians should have been dealt with when Germany feel, but here we are.
Just imagine what Europe would be today if we’d avoided 50 years of communism in the East, destroyed Russian societal framework to allow democracy to potentially develop without being crowded out by totalitarianism.
How much further ahead Germany and Poland could be even from their current good standing?
How much further could Ukraine be today with its resources & agriculture having had a chance to develop itself and a navy in the Black Sea to ensure safe transport of its trade for decades at this point?
How many proxy wars could have been avoided in absence of the fear of global communism?
1
Posted on 7/17/22 at 10:46 am to gizmothepug
quote:
The current war in Europe could have been prevented in the 40’s right after the fall of Germany, but evidently a fender bender kills a General but not his dog. The Russians should have been dealt with when Germany feel, but here we are.
No, it couldn't. The geopolitical realities of 1945 meant that displacing the USSR on the ground would have required a massive effort. There were many places where this war could have been stopped too, but some posters in this thread will insist that the US is at fault regardless without ever addressing the fundamental lack of good-faith the Russians themselves have demonstrated at several points, including the direct run up to the war.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 11:29 am to DabosDynasty
The Russians aren’t as individualistic as Westerners.
I don’t want to overstate it, it’s not like Islam where the people are seen as one, and factionalism is serious sin, but the Russians do have a strong group identity, where the sense of self is tied to the group in a way that is not true for westerners.
Democracy is not a good system though. It didn’t work for the Greeks, and it doesn’t work any better for us. Functionally, it probably emerged as a way to legitimize the ruling class in the absence of titles or divine right. And in practice, democracy isn’t rule by the people, it’s oligarchy, or more specifically plutocracy.
I don’t want to overstate it, it’s not like Islam where the people are seen as one, and factionalism is serious sin, but the Russians do have a strong group identity, where the sense of self is tied to the group in a way that is not true for westerners.
Democracy is not a good system though. It didn’t work for the Greeks, and it doesn’t work any better for us. Functionally, it probably emerged as a way to legitimize the ruling class in the absence of titles or divine right. And in practice, democracy isn’t rule by the people, it’s oligarchy, or more specifically plutocracy.
This post was edited on 7/17/22 at 11:56 am
Posted on 7/17/22 at 11:35 am to StormyMcMan
Yes Ukraine will have to go on offense to reclaim territory. But for the time being, it’s clear they are still inflicting significant damage. They are in process of receiving better weapons. They might also be trying to get some air cover organized.
You look at Russia’s occupation of Kherson and you have to analyze whether Russia’s position is stabilized, getting stronger or getting weaker…
It makes sense if they can blow up some more ammo depots and Command HQs before trying to take back Kherson if they can .
You look at Russia’s occupation of Kherson and you have to analyze whether Russia’s position is stabilized, getting stronger or getting weaker…
It makes sense if they can blow up some more ammo depots and Command HQs before trying to take back Kherson if they can .
This post was edited on 7/17/22 at 11:38 am
Posted on 7/17/22 at 12:26 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
no victories.
Oracle you want a victory? turn the Americans loose in Poland, Latvia and Romania and you will have it in about 4 or 5 days.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 12:29 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
I knew two guys there. They loved their jobs.
The guy that whipped my arse for a week always had booze on his breath.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 12:45 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Democracy is not a good system though. It didn’t work for the Greeks, and it doesn’t work any better for us. Functionally, it probably emerged as a way to legitimize the ruling class in the absence of titles or divine right. And in practice, democracy isn’t rule by the people, it’s oligarchy, or more specifically plutocracy.
As opposed to the institutional plutocracy that other systems represent? No governance system is perfect, but there is a massive 'creativity' edge that direct, top-down systems cannot emulate. One very amazing thing about the American ethic is that failure itself is looked at as part of the process of success, which selects for creativity. There are lots of elites right now that would love to operate by the rules they think governed the old world, but what they end up doing is just recreating the counter-revolutionary trend that began since the French Revolution and in doing so, are never prepared to think about the future. They don't even have a framework to deal with the realities of a possible future, all they know is that liberalism, democracy, and the discontents of human freedom are to blame singularly for their problems. What they do instead is insulate themselves within the military apparatus and see if they can wait out the next wave of discontent. Again, the examples of this type of myopia are numerous. And the discontent that the populations experience is always handwaved away with some reference to the all-knowing power of Western intelligence agencies, continually robbing these groups of people the same promise of liberty that drove the Enlightenment.
Arguably, many of the issues in the US are linked to the fact that in a highly advanced society that adopts new technologies with remarkable ease, it is plainly obvious that people have the freedom to think as they please and openly. It's exceedingly hard to drive a consensus-based governance system when the approach to epistemology is also individualistic. The upside is that you get tremendous creative potential from the citizenry, but the downside is that you can derive any thing about the population from a singular experience and then justify that your experience in particular is a problem on a society-level.
What the counter-revolutionary trend really wants is for society to stop moving so things make sense for them. They want to impose 'order' on human societies which haven't been exceedingly well-ordered since before the Neolithic. Maybe at some point technology will allow these myopic 'elites' to control humanity directly but it hasn't so far. Instead, technology has increased the creative potential of humanity to amazing degrees. But the 'elites' will keep trying because they feel their own political economy is always at stake.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 12:47 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
You've tried to be careful to straddle the fence, because, somewhere, deep in that jarhead brain, you still understand that its poor form to openly cheer for Russia. But we have 1300 pages here. It's not hard to connect the dots. Just a few pages back, you tried to draw a moral equivalence between a dictator invading a neighboring country and committing war crimes against its civilian population with a poster saying mean things about Russian soldiers on a message board, for god's sake. You aren't fooling anyone. At least Winston is upfront with his bullshite.
No dude, I’m not pro Russia and have stated several times in this thread that I want Ukraine to win. I just don’t think Ukraine is winning and I doubt their ability to do so. I also think the media coverage is completely biased towards Ukraine.
It’s possible to support Ukraine and also look at the war objectively.
Ukraine has a lot of issues they have to deal with. They’re losing highly skilled soldiers everyday that they cannot replace. They’re losing equipment everyday that they cannot replace. Even with the advanced hardware they’re receiving they still have to deal with the logistical challenges. Hell man, they’ve got like 8 different western artillery systems now that require different spare parts and different ammo and different training. Yeah the the equipment is great and has been effective the past few weeks but we’d all be fools to think Russia won’t adapt to the new weapons they’re facing. Russia has a huge stockpile of weapons and vehicles they can draw from even if it is shitty stuff. Russia can call a general mobilization and then Ukraine is really fricked. This war is still Russia’s to lose in my opinion. I’m afraid everyone got their hopes up when the attack on Kiev failed.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 12:55 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:Putin either will not or [more likely] cannot call for a general mobilization and survive. He hasn't even been able to admit that Russia is fighting a war.
Russia can call a general mobilization and then Ukraine is really fricked. This war is still Russia’s to lose in my opinion.
eta- and as far as equipment, he's already rolling t-34's. I know that's not the whole picture but it's telling.
This post was edited on 7/17/22 at 1:05 pm
Posted on 7/17/22 at 1:04 pm to northshorebamaman
You may be right, but he still has the option. And he’s also said that “We haven’t started yet.” Maybe it’s bullshite and maybe it’s not. I’m sure he would prefer to not call for general mobilization but he would probably rather do that then admit defeat.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 1:06 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:+1
You aren't fooling anyone. At least Winston is upfront with his bullshite.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 1:07 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Since Russia has shown such a great ability to adapt so far right? And to call for full mobilization Putin would have to go all in and declare war, not his “special operation” as he’s been trying to call it. The Russians have terrible officers and no real NCO ranks to bridge the gap from commissioned officers to the basic privates. The Russian military is a top down style that doesn’t give its guys on the front lines much authority to act without first getting approval from high up. This is one of the things that makes our military what it is. We encourage our NCO’s, lieutenants and captains more freedom to act on what they are seeing on the ground. This goes for the Russian Air Force also. Their training is not even in the same universe as ours which is why if a war between us ever broke out we would destroy their air capability in short order making their large stockpile of Soviet era artillery fish in a barrel to incoming air strikes.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 1:17 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:Debatable if he even has that option at all but the outward signs suggest that he doesn't. None of us here know for sure, I'll give you that.
You may be right, but he still has the option.
quote:IMO, he values his own power above all. A call for general mobilization in this case is probably also a call to depose him. Mainly due to the way Putin himself framed his "special military action". The Ukrainians were supposed to welcome their Russian "brothers" with open arms and now he needs to feed every able-bodied son, father, and husband in the country into the meat grinder? He'd look like a fool.
I’m sure he would prefer to not call for general mobilization but he would probably rather do that then admit defeat.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 1:20 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
. I’m afraid everyone got their hopes up when the attack on Kiev failed.
When the attack failed and Ukrsine pushed the Russians out that was a big win. It proved Ukraine was going to stand tall.
When Russia regrouped and went hard into the Donbas and Ukraine prevented the Russians to steamroll through them it goes down as a loss, but again Ukraine stood tall.
Now Russia is reorganizing again. This thing isn’t close to being over. Ukraine isn’t winning, but they haven’t lost a chance to ein it all or at a minimum make Russia settle.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 1:20 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:Well they’re still taking ground everyday even without a general mobilization or draft.
Since Russia has shown such a great ability to adapt so far right? And to call for full mobilization Putin would have to go all in and declare war, not his “special operation” as he’s been trying to call it. The Russians have terrible officers and no real NCO ranks to bridge the gap from commissioned officers to the basic privates. The Russian military is a top down style that doesn’t give its guys on the front lines much authority to act without first getting approval from high up.
quote:That would all be relevant if Russia was fighting the United States.
This is one of the things that makes our military what it is. We encourage our NCO’s, lieutenants and captains more freedom to act on what they are seeing on the ground. This goes for the Russian Air Force also. Their training is not even in the same universe as ours which is why if a war between us ever broke out we would destroy their air capability in short order making their large stockpile of Soviet era artillery fish in a barrel to incoming air strikes.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 1:23 pm to doubleb
quote:
When the attack failed and Ukrsine pushed the Russians out that was a big win. It proved Ukraine was going to stand tall. When Russia regrouped and went hard into the Donbas and Ukraine prevented the Russians to steamroll through them it goes down as a loss, but again Ukraine stood tall. Now Russia is reorganizing again. This thing isn’t close to being over. Ukraine isn’t winning, but they haven’t lost a chance to ein it all or at a minimum make Russia settle.
I would agree with most of this. But if I were making a prediction they’ll eventually settle with Russia at the negotioating table and more than likely lose a lot of territory in the process.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 1:26 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
The Ukrainian defense minister said this week that 10s of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. He continued saying that he hopes the total is under 100,000.
He also corrected his earlier comment about a million man army in the south. He said that English is not his first language, and that he had misspoken.
He also corrected his earlier comment about a million man army in the south. He said that English is not his first language, and that he had misspoken.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 1:27 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:I don't think this is surprising to anyone.
The Ukrainian defense minister said this week that 10s of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been killed.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 1:37 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Time will tell.
Is the pace of Russian territorial gain from Donbas going to speed up? Russia has much more to prove on that front.
But if Ukraine takes Kherson back, and/or manages to blow the bridges to Crimea, then they really aren’t going to be in a mood to settle.
This is why Putin was encouraging them to negotiate now, because Ukraine has more bargaining position to gain.
Is the pace of Russian territorial gain from Donbas going to speed up? Russia has much more to prove on that front.
But if Ukraine takes Kherson back, and/or manages to blow the bridges to Crimea, then they really aren’t going to be in a mood to settle.
This is why Putin was encouraging them to negotiate now, because Ukraine has more bargaining position to gain.
Posted on 7/17/22 at 2:27 pm to Obtuse1
Hal who lived in Houma, was a Marine pilot transferred to the USN due loss of pilots being shotdown in Vietnam in the mid 60's. He grew up in the Mississippi Delta on the family plantation. Helluva good man who was to the point. He tried his hand at a lot of things post Navy be it raising cattle, or flying Coors to MS and TN when that was a thing, but the last few decades he was a directional driller.
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