re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The following was written by Igor Girkin, a Russian with a long history of working to overthrow Ukraine. Look him up on wikipedia if want more info.

Translated by @mdmitri91

To emphasize, this was written from a Russian point of view.

Frontline situation, in short:
Kharkiv frontline, Izyum-Sloviansk direcrtion, Seversk-Soledar-Bakhmut, Donetsk frontlines - no substantial changes. Local fights and artillery/aviation strike exchanges. The enemy continues "terrorising" rear stockpiles and command points of RF AF and LDPR AF. Yesterday another stockpile destroyed in Shakhtersk (it is still detonating and burning according to reports). In most cases, such successes of the enemy are based on the OUTSTANDING sloppiness of the COMMAND, which did not deem disguise or basic safety measures important. Stockpiles were created without taking into account the availability to the enemy of the space and air intelligence. Crowded, without defensive structures - "whatever happens".

Of course, as a defense our military could say they did not expect the SMO to "turn into a war". But the fact is, in the fifth month of the war, in the RF AF units and formations even the basic disguse networks are completely absent (meanwhile in LDPR units supplied by volunteers, they have them). Just this fact allows the whole leadership of the rears of the Ministry of Defence of the RF to be brought to the military tribunal.

Zaporizhye frontline - the situation is not exactly clear to me. There is unconfirmed data about activity and even offensive actions of the enemy. I'm waiting for clearer information. The enemy is also carrying out precise rocket strikes at rear facilities of our troops.

Kherson frontline - no substantial changes. Enemy artillery periodically shells Kherson, Nova Kakhovka, Skadovsk. Our artillery and aviation deals response, strikes.
- translation by @mdmitri91

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They are claiming Crimea as Russian territory. Should attacking it be a red line & another appeasement to Russia?

Nope. Everything up to and including the Crimean Bridge is likely to be on the table.

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Exactly. Crimea was stolen and must be taken back. This will start with the targeting of the bridges that supply both Crimea and indirectly the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. As we've discussed before, there are three bridges that connect Crimea to the mainland: the Kerch Bridge; the Perekop Isthmus Bridge; and the Dzhankoi - Novooleks Bridge. The Kerch Bridge connects Eastern Crimea to Russia and the latter two bridges connect Northern Crimea to the Kherson Oblast.

Cut these three bridges and you give the Russians huge problems in resupplying not only Crimea, but also Kherson/Zaporizhzhia. Yes, the Russians had eight years to warehouse ammunition and military supplies in Crimea, but the HIMARS are the cure for that.

After the Crimean supply routes are cut and ammo storage HIMARed, all the Ukrainians need are more 155 rounds and tubes for the close-in work.

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They are claiming Crimea as Russian territory. Should attacking it be a red line & another appeasement to Russia? Any new annexed " Russian " territory be off limits?

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I wouldn't think so. From the rationalist perspective, U.S. and western aid has thus far been de-escalatory. Surely an argument can be made that we could have done more on the front end to dissuade Putin. Be that as it may...

Putin was embarrassed at Kyiv. Russian TV and propagandists reframed the narrative. Putin de-escalated, and the war is now currently relegated to the Donbas. In his virtual reality governance, he simply declared victory and moved on.

If the Ukrainians were to manage a prolonged counter-offensive and the Russians were getting their asses beat in annexed areas... they would most likely withdraw back into Russia, claim victory, and change the narrative yet again.

World powers have been defeated before. The U.S. by the NVA, and Ivan in Afghanistan. Neither resulted in a nuclear conflagration.

Yeah... I knew I'd get some pushback... Call it "politically defeated." Point being world powers have been embarrassed before...

A lot of them live in the Mobile, AL area. Each has multiple driver's licenses with different names, all are Americanized names. They don't care who they take advantage of, or sell to, even their own kind. I remember seeing some of photos with all the known aliases posted on guard shack windows at Westlake Petrochemicals in Carlyss, LA. I had to chuckle

US to send 4 additional HIMARS to Ukraine.

U.S. President Joe Biden on July 8 signed a new weapons package worth up to $400 million to help Ukraine, which includes the delivery of the high mobility multiple launch rocket systems, which have allowed Ukraine's forces to strike Russian military warehouses and other targets behind the front lines. The new shipment will bring the total number of HIMARS pledged to Ukraine to 12.

The Kyiv Independent

I would send them to start off with just 100 of our long range guided precision missiles for the HIMARS. You can only fire one of these at a time versus the usual 6 rockets in a pod but they travel 4x the distance and are accurate to within under 10 meters. Tell the Ukrainians they are meant for only the highest value of target and that under no circumstances should they be fired over the border. If they break that deal then the consequences could be no more supplying weapons. See how they do with the first 100 long range missiles and then reassess. 12 HIMARS means a lot though along with the 12 M270s. They can now have MLRS batteries on every front of the battlefield looking for targets of opportunity, not to mention the morale it inflicts on Russian troops knowing they can be hit so far behind their lines. This doesn’t even account for the M109s, CAESARs, Phz2000s and Krab precision tracked howitzers that are now in country and all are better than anything Russia can put against them. The Ukraines have only 10% the artillery that Russia has but their NATO 155mm pieces can also shoot further than the old Soviet 122 mm and 152 mm guns which by now must need their barrels replaced at the rate they have been firing shells and using up ammunition stocks. This, along with HIMARS doing work destroying ammunition depots inside Ukraine have stopped the Russians in their tracks which they are calling an “operational pause”.

More details on latest US defense package including....

Three tactical vehicles to recover equipment, to support Ukrainian efforts to repair, resupply as this battle continues. 1,000 rounds of 155 millimeter artillery ammunition. This is a new type of 155 millimeter artillery ammunition. It has greater precision. It offers Ukraine precise capability for specific targets. It will save ammunition. It will be more effective due to the precision, so it's a further evolution in our support for Ukraine in this battle in the Donbass.

Q: Hey, thanks for -- thanks for this. Two quick questions. You mentioned the 155 munitions and they're a bit more advanced. Can you give a bit more details on what that is? And just more broadly, do you see Russia now having the momentum in the war or do you still sort of see the battle in terms of momentum?

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yes, I can't -- other than describing the -- this new set of 155 munitions, I can't get into details for, you know, operational reasons -- but simply to confirm that these are precision capable systems compatible with the 155 howitzers, so that's what I can share on that.

Senior Defense Official Holds a Background Briefing July 8, 2022

Has Russia been using it's fighter/bomber jets much. Just curious cause if I was Russia I would be most concerned about this new artillery. And a follow-up to that does Ukraine have adequate SAM protection for these HIMARs.

Just curious and trying to wrap my head around what's going on.

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Stop US meddling in foreign wars!

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We have done this -- with mixed results -- since we were a country. It won't change. Administrations come and go. But every super power on earth has projected influence on it friends and enemies who are at war.

You would do better to rage against the sun or the tides.