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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/27/22 at 8:10 am to Darth_Vader
Posted on 6/27/22 at 8:10 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Russia has conscription and they’re at war. I assure you they’re training replacements. Seriously, what made you think they’re not training replacements.
Russia has conscription that is true. It starts training its new conscripts in the summer. However, it also rotates out and discharges a previous class of conscripts which has completed its 2 years of military service. Based on open source intel Russia has only mobilized around 40,000 reserve troops. Which is just enough to replace the conservative estimates of K/W/C in Ukraine. At best Russia is trying to get its strength back up to 150 BTGs which is what it started the war with.
quote:
Russia is taking huge losses. Thats true. What’s also true is when it comes to war, Russians are famous for taking massive losses and they keep on going. In 1914 alone the Russians lost almost 1.5 million men. They fought on for another three years losing another 4.5 million killed. And when the Revolution came in 1917, followed by the Russian Civil War, another 10 million Russians were killed. Twenty years later in WWII, over 20 million Russians were killed. So in a roughly 30 year timespan between 1914 and 1945, somewhere around 35-40 million Russians died due to war. High death tolls is nothing they’re not use to. If we’re talking a war of attrition, between Russia and Ukraine, Russia will win that war every time.
If Russia was mobilizing for all out war you would be correct but its not. It’s 4 months behind on mobilization. Russia is treating this war like it’s the US invasion of Iraq. Ukraine is treating this war like it’s WW1 by starting with mobilizing 250,000 reserves and then going to 500,000. Since this war is actually more like WW1 than the either Iraq wars, Russia will run out of troops before Ukraine does.
1
Posted on 6/27/22 at 8:38 am to StormyMcMan
There isn't nearly as much oil produced in Venezuela as there was 15 years ago. Their upgraders are not anywhere near capacity and Europe needs that very heavy crude oil to be upgraded in order to be refined efficiently in almost all of its refineries.
With Rosneft having much of the Venezuelan production now, sanctions keep most of it out of Europe.
Why Biden's entreaties to Venezuela were for show only.
With Rosneft having much of the Venezuelan production now, sanctions keep most of it out of Europe.
Why Biden's entreaties to Venezuela were for show only.
This post was edited on 6/27/22 at 8:40 am
Posted on 6/27/22 at 8:59 am to TxWadingFool
quote:
Looks like Nato will be needing a lot more funding, wonder where that will come from?
Sounds like a status change to me. I’m sure that means some troop & equipment movement which has costs.
My civilian brain thinks they would move/change readiness status of a lot of central & Eastern European nations’ troops who participate in NATO. Thinking Poland, Baltics, & Balkans increase readiness status of portions of their troops and NATO equipment in their nations. One of the few military guys in here feel free to comment/correct. Just what I have in my mind.
Posted on 6/27/22 at 9:06 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
BREAKING: Russia defaults on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century
This has to be fake news. The muh rouble is stronger than ever and the sanctions arent working.
Posted on 6/27/22 at 9:17 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
Or build leverage for eventual negotiations, which I think is what Russia is also doing, given the broader geopolitical situation.
The problem with this is that the more time passes, the less leverage Ukraine has.
Posted on 6/27/22 at 9:26 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
quote:
BREAKING: Russia defaults on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century
This has to be fake news. The muh rouble is stronger than ever and the sanctions arent working.
I'll be fair and say that it's more a technical default than a real deal one. They have the cash, but the sanctions are preventing the transfer. Russia also doesn't have a ton of external debt relative to the size of their economy, so that helps, too.
They've shown themselves to be fairly flexible when it comes to getting around the financial sanctions so far, and I think they could limp on indefinitely. The more important sanctions were always on high end manufacturing goods, chips, etc. Replacing a technology deficit takes years and years of capability building. Oh, and their economy is still projected to contract nearly 10% this year, so Great Depression-level of downturn.
Posted on 6/27/22 at 9:28 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
quote:
BREAKING: Russia defaults on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century
This has to be fake news. The muh rouble is stronger than ever and the sanctions arent working.
I was thinking the same exact thing. Wasn’t it reported right here that the Ruble was surplanting the dollar and that Russia was racking in record revenues?
Posted on 6/27/22 at 9:29 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
The problem with this is that the more time passes, the less leverage Ukraine has.
Why is that? Wouldn’t conditions on the battle fields dictate terms?
Posted on 6/27/22 at 9:34 am to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
I'll be fair and say that it's more a technical default than a real deal one.
The problem is it effects their rating, cost more to borrow money and to keep the ponzi scheme going they have to borrow money.
I suspect their bond attorneys are somewhere cold right now. All their payments are due in USD at one of the prescribed banks in NYC.
They have burned through their 6 months of cash, now the pain starts.
Posted on 6/27/22 at 9:39 am to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
I'll be fair and say that it's more a technical default than a real deal one. They have the cash, but the sanctions are preventing the transfer. Russia also doesn't have a ton of external debt relative to the size of their economy, so that helps, too.
Agree. It’s newsworthy but not panic or gotcha worthy imo. Their total foreign held debt isn’t much more than the US alone has spent on Ukraine. They have the ability to pay for now, but have been denied, and pragmatically don’t have much incentive to actually not default on it.
Posted on 6/27/22 at 9:42 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
The problem is it effects their rating, cost more to borrow money and to keep the ponzi scheme going they have to borrow money.
This has largely already been experienced anyway because of the sanctions. Longer term Russian bond prices crashed. They are still left with the same potential lenders post default as before - their biggest non-European trading partners and fellow petrostates.
This post was edited on 6/27/22 at 9:43 am
Posted on 6/27/22 at 9:45 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
I suspect their bond attorneys are somewhere cold right now. All their payments are due in USD at one of the prescribed banks in NYC.
But Putin signed a law in Russia that allows all bond payments to be made in Rubles to Russian banks instead of whatever the bond terms were when purchased. So master strategist outdid the West to prevent default
But in reality, they did try to do the above after the US Treasury closed the loophole allowing bond payments from Russian US bank accounts, but it's just a way for them to try to get the courts to remove the default when it's taken to court, which it will be (taken to court that is, no clue on what the outcome of that will be). One other fun note, the bonds didn't state where the venue will be held, so most likely US Courts are going to have to hear the cases.
Posted on 6/27/22 at 9:47 am to AbuTheMonkey
It affects oil and gas production down the road too. Without Western service companies, Russia is as inefficient as it gets. This also should include process instrumentation and controls for chemical and refining sectors. I hope, but doubt, that they are very capable of refurbishing field instrumentation, though much is actually simple to do.
I should have included Ukraine in this as lacking in technology. UKR still has to hand turn valves on the oil and gas pipelines running through it from Russia. There is no central control which Russia can shutoff remotely.
I should have included Ukraine in this as lacking in technology. UKR still has to hand turn valves on the oil and gas pipelines running through it from Russia. There is no central control which Russia can shutoff remotely.
This post was edited on 6/27/22 at 9:52 am
Posted on 6/27/22 at 9:54 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
where the venue will be held
Jurisdiction will be a federal court (diversity) in NYC, where the holder of the bond resides. I'd be shocked if the bond contract doesnt have a jurisdictional clause.
Posted on 6/27/22 at 10:12 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
Jurisdiction will be a federal court (diversity) in NYC, where the holder of the bond resides. I'd be shocked if the bond contract doesnt have a jurisdictional clause.
Per the WSJ (paywall just FYI)
quote:
Unusual for most sovereign bonds, Russia’s don’t specify a jurisdiction to decide disputes. Lawyers say English or U.S. courts are likely venues to decide who is right.
Posted on 6/27/22 at 10:18 am to doubleb
quote:
The problem with this is that the more time passes, the less leverage Ukraine has.
quote:
Why is that? Wouldn’t conditions on the battle fields dictate terms?
Of course condition on the battlefield will dictate the terms. Thats the problem. The conditions on the battlefield are in Russia’s favor. The longer the fighting goes on, the more the conditions on the battlefield will weigh in Russia’s favor.
I’m not saying this based on my personal wants or passions. Nor am I looking at this from pro-Russia or pro-Ukraine standpoint. I may be one of the last people here who observes this war from a neutral and objective manner unclouded by personal emotions on the matter. I’m not “pro” anyone in this war.
The reality on the ground is Russia is winning. They’re taking serious losses. But they are advancing and capturing territory and achieving their war aims. The longer the fighting goes, the more it will favor Russia. Ukraine has put up a good fight. They’ve shown to be brave and skilled soldiers. But nothing can be gained by the Ukrainians by continued fighting. They simply lack the military strength to turn the tide of the war.
Doesn’t matter if I, you, or anyone else here wants this to be reality or not. Reality is reality. We can either be rational and accept reality as it is, or we can choose to indulge in fantasy and delusion. Whatever we choose though, reality will still be there and it doesn’t care about our feelings.
This post was edited on 6/27/22 at 10:21 am
Posted on 6/27/22 at 10:27 am to StormyMcMan
Not really all that surprising:
LINK
quote:
Turkey is officially refusing to join sanctions against Russia, citing domestic economic impacts & the potential for Turkey to act as a mediator.
LINK
Posted on 6/27/22 at 10:29 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Ukraine have struck 2 separate ammunition depots around 50km behind the front line in Russian occupied Luhansk, Eastern Ukraine this morning. One of the depots was in Zymohirya and the other in Alchevsk.
LINK
Posted on 6/27/22 at 10:34 am to StormyMcMan
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russian-missiles-hit-kremenchuk-shopping-center-1000-civilians-ukraine-rcna35482
Another link https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-kyiv-politics-d649a733dc688379ec15652b19ae305f
How long before the Putin Bots show up to tell us Ukraine hit their own shopping center?
quote:
Russian missiles hit a crowded shopping mall in central Ukraine with more than 1,000 civilians inside on Monday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
"The occupiers fired rockets at the mall, where there were more than a thousand civilians," Zelenskyy said in a post on the Telegram messaging app. He added that "the number of victims is impossible to imagine," in the strike, which took place in Kremenchuk, a city in the Poltava region on the banks of the Dnieper River.
Another link https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-kyiv-politics-d649a733dc688379ec15652b19ae305f
How long before the Putin Bots show up to tell us Ukraine hit their own shopping center?
This post was edited on 6/27/22 at 10:40 am
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