re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Saddam via an Iraqi born R&D chemist had co-opted pilot plants for making herbicides and pesticides into chem weapans agents in California near San Francisco on East Bay.

I inspected the equipment for reapplication and resale in the fall of 2002 while in the area to liquidate a flat panel manufacturing plant for a major petrochemical company which had intended to repurpose it to make smart phone screens, due supplying the petrochemicals required is very high profit.

This might blow your little 15 year old mind that you basically don't know much.

quote:

---

democracy isnt for everyone. And we need to remember that before we set about on our next nation building exercise

---

Possibly the truest statement ITT

quote:

---

We also need to recognize the value in helping democratic nations defend themselves. Our power rests on the economic viability of trade amongst free peoples

---

Agree but that water gets muddy in a lot of places it’s likely called on.

quote:

---

Its been a while since I offered my view of where the war currently stands.

There are currently around 6 active fronts in the war. From North to South:

1) Kharkiv Front
2) The Front East of Kharkiv that runs along a line from North to south ending at Izium
3) The Front South of Izium running to Severodonetsk
4) The City of Severodonetsk
5) The Popsana Area
6) Kherson Area
3,4 and 5 are all part of the overall effort to take Severdonetsk

1) North of Kharkiv The Russians have been launching attacks trying to push Ukraine back from the Russian border and to get the Ukrainian army out of artillery range of Russia's supply lines that run through Vovchansk. This area is basically a stalemate with towns changing hands back and forth.
LINK
quote:
Ukrainian forces still holds Rubizhne north of Kharkiv

quote:
Ukrainian forces liberated the settlements of Sosnivka and Shopyne in Kharkiv on their original counteroffensive a couple of weeks ago. These towns were previously thought to be occupied, they have now been confirmed to be under Ukrainian control.


2a) East of Kharkiv There is not a lot of information available on this area, which is where Ukraine established bridgeheads across the Donets River in the areas of Rubizhne and Staryi Saltiv. The bridgehead is still there and the Ukrainians are trying to expand it. At this point the Ukrainian offensive appears to be primarily a pressure relief effort to draw Russian troops away from the Severodonetsk area.


2b) The area west of Izium The Ukrainians are making a solid advance towards Izyum from the west. They successfully bridged the Donets River (at the point where my 2b marker is located) And have been pushing the Russians back. A month ago, this was all territory controlled by Russia.

LINK
quote:
The counterattacks west and south west of Izyum show how stretched Russians are on this front.

The more they advance north of Slovyansk the more exposed their flank becomes.

quote:
Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack south west of Izyum and liberated Dmytrivka


3) Line from South of Izyum to Severodonetsk The Russians haven't been able to cross the river in the Lyman area. Supposedly the fighting here is intense. This is the Red Dashed line northern part of the map below. There are reports of the Russians regrouping in this area and building up strength for another crossing attempt. This is a very hot zone.


4) Severodonetsk City - Appears to be a meat grinder for both sides. Russians have control of the core of the city. The Ukrainians have control of the industrial area in the northwest of the city. All the bridges are down; however, the Ukrainians say they can still supply and reinforce their troops. Russia has been trying to take this city for over a month. At one point the Ukrainians pulled back and then hit the Russians hard with a counterattack.

5) Popsana This is a very active area and the current primary focus of the Russian Army. The map below shows you just how little progress the Russians have made in this area. They are making progress, but at an extremely low rate. Go back and look at news reports from April, They haven't moved forward a whole lot. Popsana is the city in the middle of the bulge. The critical Ukrainian supply line that runs through Bakhmuts is visible just to the Northwest of the front lines.


Another map of the area from a different source
LINK


6) Kherson
There are multiple reports that Ukraine's attack towards Kherson is gaining momentum. Ukrainian forces are within 10KM of the city.

LINK
quote:
Kherson-The bridgehead across the Inhulets is solidified. Russians were unable to prevent Ukrainian troops advancing and securing previously liberated positions.




If you look at the battlefield maps from 2 months ago or one month ago, you will see that the Russians have made some localized gains. They captured Lyman, and have pushed out towards Hakhmuts from the Popsana direction...other than that, I don't see where they have done much. In contrast, the Ukrainians have pushed Russia back from Kharkiv, have advanced east of Kharkiv and established footholds across the Donets River, are beginning to threaten Izyum, and gaining ground on Kherson. The Ukrainians have taken back more territory than Russia has gained in the last 2 months.

Russia has recovered its military sense after the early war fiasco; however, they certainly don't appear to be dominating Ukraine anywhere. They are certainly inflicting heavy casualties on the Ukrainian Army, but at what cost to their own military?

IF (and that's a big IF) the Ukrainians can continue to slow Russia's advance in the Severodonetsk region while continuing to make gains elsewhere then that is definitely in Ukraine's favor. Time will tell.

---

Posts like this this is why we come here .

(no message)

You seriously think this war will start World War III

quote:

---

Chromdome35

---

quote:

---

TYFYS in this thread. One of if not the best aggregator of real battlefield intelligence.

---

+1

quote:

---

I think there’s a 20% chance which is high enough.

---

I think that estimate is at least a magnitude too high.

OML would be terrible to get high with.

(no message)