re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 17 June 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Over the last 24 hours, Russian forces have likely continued to attempt to regain momentum on the Popasna axis, from which they seek to surround the Sieverodonetsk pocket from the south.
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In Russia, the war has accelerated the state's long-term trajectory towards authoritarianism. In recent weeks, the Duma has started the process to introduce a 20-year sentence for Russians who fight against the Russian Federation. Speaking out against the invasion is also being criminalised.

Despite the majority of Russians telling pollsters they support the 'special military operation, elements of the population both actively and passively demonstrate their opposition. The "Freedom for Russia Legion", recruited from Russians, has almost certainly deployed in combat alongside the Ukrainian military. Some high profile Russian officials have highly likely been side-lined after criticising the war.

Scepticism about the war is likely also particularly strong amongst Russia's business elite and oligarch community. Migration applications suggest that 15,000 Russian millionaires in US dollars) are likely already attempting to leave the country Motivations highly likely include both personal opposition to the invasion and an intent to escape the financial impact of the sanctions imposed on Russia. Should this exodus continue, it will likely exacerbate the war's long-term damage to Russia's economy.

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The average Russian seems to be so mentally weak and compliant to authority. I feel bad for them. They don’t seem to understand democracy at all.

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democracy isnt for everyone. And we need to remember that before we set about on our next nation building exercise

We also need to recognize the value in helping democratic nations defend themselves. Our power rests on the economic viability of trade amongst free peoples

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I think your first sentence directly contradicts your last sentence.

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Our power rests on free trade?

We have the economic advantage that 80% of the world's leading economies are democratic in some form. That partially balances the issues of currency and trade manipulation we see from autocratic regimes.

If we know that there will only be a limited number of democracies in the world due to it not being for everyone, we need to incubate and defend those existing governments as the valuable commodities they are

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The Ukrainian Defense Forces hit a Russian tugboat transporting weapons and ammunition to occupied Snake Island.

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Kind of like hunting over a baited field.

Putain's secret police, the FSB, is larger than Russia's army and larger than the good ole KGB of the Soviet days. Even Gulags have more inmates than under Stalin.

If you want to live and have no way to escape Russia, I suggest you march as told

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Should this exodus continue, it will likely exacerbate the war's long-term damage to Russia's economy.

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I read it right here, the sanctions didn’t work and the Russian oil business is better than ever.

What do these millionaires know that we don’t know?

Russia makes some stupid decisions, but there's a valid strategic reason for taking and defending Snake Island. Whoever controls it controls access to the Ukrainian coast.

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Russia makes some stupid decisions, but there's a valid strategic reason for taking and defending Snake Island. Whoever controls it controls access to the Ukrainian coast.

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And one could argue that the installation of defenses on Snake Island is more important for the Russians now with the sinking of the Moskva and the loss of its missile system for long range air defense.

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I read it right here, the sanctions didn’t work and the Russian oil business is better than ever.

What do these millionaires know that we don’t know?

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There is some real economic horsepower on this board.

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the installation of defenses on Snake Island is more important for the Russians now

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Their days of defending it are probably numbered. The rock they call Snake Island is about a half mile wide with no place to hide and well within Ukrainian MLRS range.