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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/13/22 at 8:26 pm to Jim Rockford
Posted on 6/13/22 at 8:26 pm to Jim Rockford
ISW
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces pushed Ukrainian defenders from the center of Severodonetsk and reportedly destroyed the remaining bridge from Severodonetsk to Lysychansk on June 13, but Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces are not encircled in the city.
Russian forces carried out unsuccessful ground assaults in an attempt to sever Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) near Popasna and Bakhmut.
Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations southeast of Izyum and north of Slovyansk, and are likely setting conditions for an assault on Siversk and northwestern Ukrainian GLOCs to Lysychansk.
Russian forces are likely conducting a limited offensive directly northeast of Kharkiv City in a likely attempt to push Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of Russian rear areas and secured some successes.
Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaging in ongoing fighting for Davydiv Brid in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
Russian occupation authorities likely staged terrorist activity in Melitopol and Berdyansk for Russia Day on June 12.
2
Posted on 6/13/22 at 8:41 pm to StormyMcMan
This is interesting. Lukashenko's son and his prom date.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 8:50 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian forces pushed Ukrainian defenders from the center of Severodonetsk and reportedly destroyed the remaining bridge from Severodonetsk to Lysychansk on June 13, but Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces are not encircled in the city.
One thing to note about the bridge demo I have seen pictures of it has the greatest impact on civilians.
Again I am only talking about the pictures I have seen:
They seem to only be dropping one span of the bridges. Without using a lot of combat engineer terms of art the bridges seem to all be ones with independent spans in that each span relies very little on other spans for their strength. If the amount of span dropped is less than ~60' it will not stop a modern army with AVLB assets. Both Ukraine and Russia have the MT55. The only thing dropping a short span does to a modern army is slow it down a little. The 3-5 minutes it takes to deploy and AVLB and the slower speeds equipment use over that span.
The point is the demo has not been carried out in a way to require riverine operations to reconnect the sides of the river it just produces a slow zone that can present targets if observed and covered with direct or indirect fire. This again assumes both have AVLB assets in the AO.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 8:55 pm to beachdude
I have no doubt about our ability to get things where they need to be at the right time.
My concern is do we have enough. It is not like we can produce at the rate we did in WW2.
Loss of our manufacturing base is a strategic mistake we made long ago.
If we were in a peer to peer fight, I do not think we have enough material in reserve.
My concern is do we have enough. It is not like we can produce at the rate we did in WW2.
Loss of our manufacturing base is a strategic mistake we made long ago.
If we were in a peer to peer fight, I do not think we have enough material in reserve.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 8:59 pm to SOSFAN
quote:
Why is there such a discrepancy between you and other media ( including liberal media)?
My medical school roommate is a major in the Ukrainians ground forces and is in command of a tank company in Ukraine. His brothers are officers in Ukrainian intelligence and Ukrainian spetsnaz. Plus the media is only focusing on the shiny story. They are not focusing on the other moves.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 9:15 pm to SOSFAN
quote:
Russian forces are now in control of most of Severodonetsk, the epicenter of the bloody battle for Ukraine's eastern Donbas region,
Like I said. The media is focusing on the sexy story. A city is a sexy story, but Severodonetsk has mostly been evacuated and is being shelled to rubble. However the terrain that controls the region is across the river. Lysychansk is basically the European version of Vicksburg in the American civil war. Its bluffs are steep and the rear approaches to the city is made up of ravines and steep hills that tanks can’t cross. Russia is exhausting its last bit of combat power to secure a militarily insignificant objective. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are slowly moving on Izium and Kherson which are militarily important targets.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 9:17 pm to dallastigers
Per Erik Prince, less than 5% has arrived in Ukraine of what was promised
Posted on 6/13/22 at 9:21 pm to CitizenK
Since I was responding to you what did you mean with your $40 billion?
First it was approved versus spent, and now you have switched to is everything promised there.
Not to mention your “Approved and spent are two different things” was in response to below question to your post.
Since you seemingly agree with $40 billion which is around 1.7 times the combined total of the rest of the world (including the EU right next door) how certain are you that we will not have to spend any additional money to continue proxy war and also to continue to avoid direct conflict with Russia?
Will any weapons supplied to Ukraine end up in hands of terrorists or other adversaries including Russia & end up causing harm to us or allies?
Will any money end up helping finance more coke and hookers for Hunter or worse for the US help finance Democratic election campaigns after a good laundering?
First it was approved versus spent, and now you have switched to is everything promised there.
Not to mention your “Approved and spent are two different things” was in response to below question to your post.
quote:
quote: “Isn't $40 billion a lot less than if we were directly involved? Sure seems that way to me.”
Probably but are there really only 2 options???
Also it’s $54 billion in aid approved through May due to Russia and Ukraine conflict. The $40 billion was the May aid package ($33 Billion requested by administration plus $7 Billion just added on top by the House), but some is going to NATO countries on the border including some where we have troops and to help refugees.
Depending on how aid to Ukraine is calculated (direct or indirect) we are probably contributing 1.5 to over 2 times more than combined total from the rest of the world so far.
Since you seemingly agree with $40 billion which is around 1.7 times the combined total of the rest of the world (including the EU right next door) how certain are you that we will not have to spend any additional money to continue proxy war and also to continue to avoid direct conflict with Russia?
Will any weapons supplied to Ukraine end up in hands of terrorists or other adversaries including Russia & end up causing harm to us or allies?
Will any money end up helping finance more coke and hookers for Hunter or worse for the US help finance Democratic election campaigns after a good laundering?
This post was edited on 6/13/22 at 9:52 pm
Posted on 6/13/22 at 9:49 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Per Erik Prince, less than 5% has arrived in Ukraine of what was promised
I doubt he has friends in the administration, but also 5% of what package? And what part of that respective package - military, humanitarian, or NATO?
The May $40 billion bill is supposed to last through sometime in September. It was not all going to weapons nor all going directly to Ukraine. I am not exactly sure what the $7 billion Pelosi added on was specifically, but I also don’t think most who voted yes do either.
Pretty sure Erik Prince doesn’t have much faith in govts ability to do anything timely or efficiently or in govts ability to not redirect money, so besides not being sure he would be given info from current political powers in DC a little more detail and context on the 5% would be helpful.
Hopefully you aren’t being like those 2 Ukraine leadership idiots our media quoted complaining about Sen Paul forcing regular process on $40 billion aid bill because they could be spending that money right now. No one but people playing politics expected it to magically get transferred as soon as approved on top of March bill still being spent at the time, but when it’s an enacted law of the US and not just a promise it will be spent somewhere. Spending is was govt does best. Spending it wisely, effectively, legally, and Keeping track of it is something else entirely.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 9:50 pm to dallastigers
quote:
$40 billion which is around 1.7 times the combined total of the rest of the world
just for reference to their economies three countries are ahead of the US
USA is 0.2% of GDP
Estonia is roughly 0.8%
Latvia is roughly 0.7%
Poland is roughly 0.45%
LINK
Posted on 6/13/22 at 10:05 pm to StormyMcMan
France and Germany noticeably missing.
Also:
Also:
Posted on 6/13/22 at 10:13 pm to WeeWee
What Ukraine really needs that it’s just not going to get is planes and pilots. The few Ukrainian pilots are extremely brave and do the best they can but they are so badly outnumbered there. Really the best they can hope for are more anti-aircraft systems it seems. Wednesday could very well decide the war with how the meeting of NATO countries goes.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 10:14 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
just for reference to their economies three countries are ahead of the US
USA is 0.2% of GDP
Estonia is roughly 0.8%
Latvia is roughly 0.7%
Poland is roughly 0.45%
$40 billion would double Latvia’s GDP or more than double Estonia’s (nominal).
It’s also highly likely some of US aid went to all 3 already or will be going over the summer.
What is % of the number 3 ranked GDP in the world? You can give the EU the worlds total minus the US’s for their aid to make it easier if not readily available.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 10:54 pm to dallastigers
Status as of Day 50 of the conflict
Status as of Day 110 of the conflict
The last two months haven’t moved the map much at all.
Al Jazeera also reporting every bridge into severodonestk has been blown. Another city reduced to nothing as nothing much changes.
I wonder who winter favors in this war given what both sides are trying to do over the next 9 months.
Status as of Day 110 of the conflict
The last two months haven’t moved the map much at all.
Al Jazeera also reporting every bridge into severodonestk has been blown. Another city reduced to nothing as nothing much changes.
I wonder who winter favors in this war given what both sides are trying to do over the next 9 months.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 12:28 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
Wednesday could very well decide the war with how the meeting of NATO countries goes.
I think NATO will cut Ukraine loose.
The change in the media coverage has been dramatic.
(That’s not to say the situation has changed. What’s true today was true a month ago. The West is just giving up.)
This post was edited on 6/14/22 at 12:29 am
Posted on 6/14/22 at 6:16 am to ned nederlander
quote:
The last two months haven’t moved the map much at all.
This is hurtful to some folks in here who’ve assured us it’s basically over.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 6:18 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
I think NATO will cut Ukraine loose.
I don’t think NATO cuts them loose, but I do think a growing divide could get wider on Wednesday. Looking at France and Germany. Probably Italy now. All 3 have done virtually nothing and are bucking what should be the most effective sanctions on Putin’s efforts.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 6:22 am to dallastigers
quote:
What is % of the number 3 ranked GDP in the world?
Some quick math
foreign aid from the US
Estonia less the 31M we gave them would still be 0.7%
Latvia less the 24M is close to 0.65%
Poland less the 12M is close to 0.43%
Posted on 6/14/22 at 6:29 am to DabosDynasty
France,Germany and Italy are the ones that are calling for/pressuring Ukraine to give up territory for peace. Those three would sell their own mother out for their own selfish interests. You cannot trust them! They are the ones leading the Russian appeasement/let's settle this Ukraine thing at any cost.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 6:29 am to StormyMcMan
Looks like Germany has sent a total of $1.483 billion in some fashion or another, but seemingly not that effective of one.
That’s 0.0389% of their GDP
That’s 0.0389% of their GDP
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