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Started By
Message
re: Latest overreaction update: The closely watched UW model has another bad day
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:14 am to The Spleen
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:14 am to The Spleen
quote:Then those people turned out not to be healthy after all.
so much about this virus we still don't know. 2-3 weeks ago all we heard was it was only a threat to unhealthy people and the elderly, then reports came out of otherwise healthy people dying from it
0
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:16 am to lsupride87
quote:
Where are those “reports”
In the news. THey are certainly outliers at this point, but they are still part of the numbers, and it's certainly still a bigger threat to the elderly and those with underlying health issues.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:17 am to lsupride87
So they estimated worse case scenario? If this were the other way around, OP would start the same thread saying they didn’t tell us the full danger of the situation. No win situation when dealing with arm chair virologists.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:17 am to The Spleen
quote:
You also have to factor in that there is so much about this virus we still don't know. 2-3 weeks ago all we heard was it was only a threat to unhealthy people and the elderly, then reports came out of otherwise healthy people dying from it. We don't know why some people test positive and never show signs. We don't know why some people progress from minor symptoms one day to needing a ventilator the next.
If you don't have reliable data or knowledge then don't put out a model at all.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:17 am to The Spleen
quote:You made it sound like there was a change in how we viewed the virus
In the news. THey are certainly outliers at this point, but they are still part of the numbers
Not a single person with a brain cell said it can’t harm otherwise healthy people. So, there has not really been a shift in thinking who the virus mainly attacks in the last 2-3 weeks
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:18 am to TH03
quote:It was a laughable estimate from the start. Hence then 1000 point analogy.
So they estimated worse case scenario?
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:19 am to TH03
quote:Sure some people are miserable dicks
So they estimated worse case scenario? If this were the other way around, OP would start the same thread saying they didn’t tell us the full danger of the situation. No win situation when dealing with arm chair virologists.
I, for one, you can win with. Don’t give me outlandish projections you actually know are outrageous just people “a study” showed it. There are studies that say the earth is flat...... Give us honest feedback and confidence intervals with your data
But they won’t do that
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 8:20 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:20 am to lsupride87
quote:
The projections have been absolute shite.
Someone has to attempt aggregating data creating models. I don't know who should be doing this, but I personally wish I could see a bunch of different models to see where those lines are. It's important to remember they are projecting things without any decent data. The US started testing too late, our tests were taking too long for results, and reporting those results are delayed. This is kinda antidotal, but I know someone that runs a small private lab. They said their 'positives' are at least several days behind in reporting on the LDH site.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:23 am to ashy larry
quote:Which is what we kept saying from the start but people kept defending the models regardless and they were reported as being realistic. See the problem? People may start to finally act rational/logical now but that doesn’t absolve them because they freaked out 2 weeks ago.
It's important to remember they are projecting things without any decent data.
ETA: these are the same people who used Louisiana going from 2 deaths to 10 deaths in 2 days and tried to use that “data” to extrapolate a a 400% increase every two days for a month. The models were making the same mistakes so they felt that they were justified in that reasoning. The existence of the models doesn’t give them the right to be morons.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 8:26 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:29 am to The Spleen
quote:
We don't know why some people test positive and never show signs.
It's because it's a mild virus. What else could explain it?
quote:
We don't know why some people progress from minor symptoms one day to needing a ventilator the next
Because lots of people are really unhealthy. For the few healthy ones that die, shite happens. A few healthy people and lots of unhealthy people die from the flu every year.
Oh no, he compared it to the flu. For fun, go search this in Google news: "hospital flu overrun" and set the date range from 11/1/16 to 1/14/20.
Cali hospitals face a war zone of flu patients 2018
Hospitals overrun by flu patients have to turn them away 2018
Hospitals overrun with flu patients 2017
It would be great if someone not on mobile would start a thread about that Google search and post the results.
There are pages and pages of results. And yet I never remember hearing anything about those overruns.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 8:34 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:34 am to ell_13
We will hear the shift about models when/if this week is over and the deaths are way under what is being predicted. The press conference announcement of “look we saved over a million lives” will be the turning point. The models will become bogus at that point.
Once the Trump Checks are deposited into accounts - the narrative needs to shift to how we all just had a paid vacation.
The shite sandwich has already been served...might as well take a bite.
Once the Trump Checks are deposited into accounts - the narrative needs to shift to how we all just had a paid vacation.
The shite sandwich has already been served...might as well take a bite.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:38 am to ell_13
quote:
Which is what we kept saying from the start but people kept defending the models regardless and they were reported as being realistic. See the problem?
The models had a wide range for their margin of error. I for one and thrilled with any lower numbers I see. But it's also reckless to not prepare for the higher number. If people want to get pissed, focus that anger on the people that pretended this was all bullshite and failed to prepare for it. Proper preparation back in January and February would have prevented a lot of the measures that have been taken.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:42 am to BamaAtl
quote:
who would not have otherwise died at this time
How do you know this? Where are the stats on people who would not have otherwise died at this time?
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:53 am to ashy larry
Wait. You think we should have prepared for 2 million deaths??? Do you know that would have really meant???
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:09 am to ell_13
quote:
Wait. You think we should have prepared for 2 million deaths??? Do you know that would have really meant???
No. We should have started streamlining tests, stocking up on medical supplies, educating the public (hand washing, distancing, etc). If those things would have been done earlier this wouldn't have caught so many people off guard.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:11 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
9,624 would be like 1 in every 500 state residents dead. How could they ever arrive at such a number? Not trying to minimize this, but Alabama's number won't be anywhere close to the upper end of that range.
Yeah, one of the local stations was pumping ads for one of their articles saying AL was projected to have the 4th highest death total of all 50 states. Maybe it was per capital or something because I didn't read it. Just saw the headline Everytime I went to look at the weather forecast. But, either way, that was some ridiculous clickbait shite trying to drum up the fear.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:27 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
The model for deaths in Alabama is an enormous range because it was one of the last states to see COVID spread and implement lockdown restrictions.
As of April 1st, the total range of deaths in Alabama is 849 to 9,624.
As of the latest update...
923 deaths with a range of 375-1996. Pretty massive change
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:31 am to IAmNERD
As of this morning al.com still had its article up saying that AL would have more deaths than states like CA. All based on this BS UW "model." Do you think they will report on the revision.
It was this UW model that everyone was using to bully Kay Ivey into the stay at home order.
It was this UW model that everyone was using to bully Kay Ivey into the stay at home order.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:46 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
As of this morning al.com still had its article up saying that AL would have more deaths than states like CA. All based on this BS UW "model." Do you think they will report on the revision.
Doubtful. But if they do mention it at all it will be buried somewhere in the article that they've been updating daily and will be removed as soon as the next update is posted.
AL.com is one of the worst websites in the history of the internet. The comment section there makes the secrant look like a bunch of MENSA members.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 9:49 am
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