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re: Latest overreaction update: The closely watched UW model has another bad day
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:39 pm to The Boat
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:39 pm to The Boat
quote:
This is what happens when you let climate change scientists make your pandemic models.
They still don’t understand the more bullshite you put into the model; the more bullshite comes out of the model.
0
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:42 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
I wonder why you didn't mention deaths?
So something that has been updated is more accurate than a static prediction? You don’t say!!!
If estimates have changed, why hasn’t policy?
Posted on 4/5/20 at 2:20 pm to SloaneRanger
Hey Sloane,
Got any doctor buddies in Bama? If we only have 5000 fatalities I will count that as good. We are not even out of second inning yet, we don’t peak until late May
Got any doctor buddies in Bama? If we only have 5000 fatalities I will count that as good. We are not even out of second inning yet, we don’t peak until late May
Posted on 4/5/20 at 2:26 pm to TutHillTiger
The UW model has Alabama at over 5500 deaths by the end of April. Tell you what. Lets bookmark this and see where we are by the end of April. They are projecting Bama to have more deaths than states like California. I just don't see it.
Yes I know doctors, but we get pretty limited info here about hospitalizations and vent use. Antecdotal info suggests the level of hospitalizations isn't that high. I'd like to know the true numbers myself.
Yes I know doctors, but we get pretty limited info here about hospitalizations and vent use. Antecdotal info suggests the level of hospitalizations isn't that high. I'd like to know the true numbers myself.
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 2:30 pm
Posted on 4/5/20 at 2:28 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
UW never changed the bed/ICU models from initial projections three weeks ago. They have been updating the model based on fatality reports and today's numbers fell within the range of 535-772 with 594 deaths.
Well, gee! They are nails predicting 24 hours out.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 7:08 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
If we only have 5000 fatalities I will count that as good. We are not even out of second inning yet, we don’t peak until late May
Bumping this because this supposedly reliable UW model has as of this morning changed their "prediction" of Alabama deaths to 900 or so. That is still probably high. Unbelievable that we had "journalists" and politicians buying into this crap.
You still going to be pleased with 5,000 deaths in Alabama?
Posted on 4/6/20 at 7:19 am to BamaAtl
quote:
Heart failure and what we're seeing with covid patients who expire are drastically different universes. The comorbidity likely hastened them along, or put them at more risk, but there is absolutely no doubt that the reason these patients die on that day in that manner is because of a viral infection.
I get what you're saying, but these people all were going to get this virus sooner or later. We already have half a million cases, conservatively, and that's with stay at home orders everywhere.
Whether these orders end in April, May, June, July, etc, old people and morbidly obese people will be exposed prior to development of a vaccine.
We can't kick the can that far
Posted on 4/6/20 at 7:27 am to 91TIGER
quote:
And what portion of these were from comorbidity ?
I love how on this board, we don't give a shite about old and fat people dying, but everything needs to be opened back up immediately before people commit suicide.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 7:41 am to ashy larry
quote:You don’t “care” when an old person dies of bacterial pneumonia
I love how on this board, we don't give a shite about old and fat people dying, but everything needs to be opened back up immediately before people commit suicide.
You don’t “care” when a morbidly obese person dies of heart disease
You don’t “care” when an infant dies of RSV
Because I have never seen you argue for making sweeping societal changes to reduce those deaths
You realize the goal of flattening the curve isn’t to save the life of the fat and old people that are dying today right? Not even Fauci would tell you that. The reason for the flattening the curve is to ensure the healthy enough people that will survive the virus with some hospital care still has the hospital availability to get that care. We aren’t going to have a vaccine for a while.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 7:44 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 7:45 am to ashy larry
quote:
love how on this board, we don't give a shite about old and fat people dying, but everything needs to be opened back up immediately before people commit suicide.
I don't want the to die. I want them to wear a mask and gloves until a vaccine is made.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 7:57 am to lsupride87
You are missing the point of my post. I'm not arguing for or against anything. I'm pointing out that many on this board don't give a shite about the deaths b/c it's people with comorbidities. But some of the same people will argue that things need to be opened back up before people commit suicide.
Just to be clear. I'm following the numbers every day hoping things level off and open back up as soon as possible. I don't like this situation anymore than anyone else. I'm also not going to shite on the model predictions either way. The same way I won't bitch about someone predicting a hurricane path or the person whose job is to predict weather 10 days in the future. Data is updated constantly that that will always move the needle. People operate on what data you have and make decisions based on that. I've said for a while that our failure in the beginning was about testing. If we had been testing like others, maybe we would have had more data and could have made better projections. Maybe if certain people had taken this seriously, additional medical supplies would have been ordered in mid-January, not mid-march resulting in less freakouts over overloading the medical system. But all that doesn't matter b/c people will blame the media and experts.
Just to be clear. I'm following the numbers every day hoping things level off and open back up as soon as possible. I don't like this situation anymore than anyone else. I'm also not going to shite on the model predictions either way. The same way I won't bitch about someone predicting a hurricane path or the person whose job is to predict weather 10 days in the future. Data is updated constantly that that will always move the needle. People operate on what data you have and make decisions based on that. I've said for a while that our failure in the beginning was about testing. If we had been testing like others, maybe we would have had more data and could have made better projections. Maybe if certain people had taken this seriously, additional medical supplies would have been ordered in mid-January, not mid-march resulting in less freakouts over overloading the medical system. But all that doesn't matter b/c people will blame the media and experts.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 7:59 am to RollTide1987
Imagine being this pissed that people didn’t die. Get a hold of yourself.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:00 am to RollTide1987
They must have all stopped touching their faces.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:01 am to uway
quote:
I don't want the to die. I want them to wear a mask and gloves until a vaccine is made.
I'd be fine with everyone wearing that if it meant we could get things moving back towards normal. But gloves and masks don't do shite unless they are worn and used properly. I picked up a to-go order last night and the people bringing the food looked like their gloves had been worn all day. That doesn't protect anyone from anything. Educating people would go a long way.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:03 am to TH03
quote:Imagine not being pissed millions of Americans lost their job due to bad data and projections
Imagine being this pissed that people didn’t die. Get a hold of yourself.
It cuts both ways. I am just tired of the virtues signaling
This has never been about deaths really or saving the old and sick. So the “do you not care about old and obese people” dog don’t hunt
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:07 am to lsupride87
quote:
So the “do you not care about old and obese people” dog don’t hunt
Well I didn’t even say anything remotely close to this.
If a projection is high and we try to mitigate the deaths, failing to hit that high projection doesn’t mean the threat was fake. It means the measures we took to prevent them worked.
OP has been melting over this for 3+ weeks now. I’m convinced he and others like him would be happy if the projections were right so the restrictions would be “worth it” in their simple minds.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:10 am to TH03
The projections have been absolute shite. That is the reason we aren’t hitting them
The range they give are ridiculous for any reasonable person to take serious. Does mitigation lower cases and deaths? Absolutely. But their upper ranges to start were absolutely insane
“Alabama will score 1,000 points on Lsu if LSU doesn’t find a better linebacker”
LSU gets new linebacker and Bama only scores 30
“the new linebacker kept lsu from scoring 1000!!!”
The range they give are ridiculous for any reasonable person to take serious. Does mitigation lower cases and deaths? Absolutely. But their upper ranges to start were absolutely insane
“Alabama will score 1,000 points on Lsu if LSU doesn’t find a better linebacker”
LSU gets new linebacker and Bama only scores 30
“the new linebacker kept lsu from scoring 1000!!!”
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 8:13 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:12 am to TH03
quote:
If a projection is high and we try to mitigate the deaths, failing to hit that high projection doesn’t mean the threat was fake. It means the measures we took to prevent them worked.
You also have to factor in that there is so much about this virus we still don't know. 2-3 weeks ago all we heard was it was only a threat to unhealthy people and the elderly, then reports came out of otherwise healthy people dying from it. We don't know why some people test positive and never show signs. We don't know why some people progress from minor symptoms one day to needing a ventilator the next.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:13 am to The Spleen
quote:Where are those “reports”
then reports came out of otherwise healthy people dying from it.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:14 am to lsupride87
quote:
then reports came out of otherwise healthy people dying from it.
Where are those “reports”
They are on the margin but because of the nature of the media, we hear about them.
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