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Latest overreaction update: The closely watched UW model has another bad day
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:14 pm
Keep in mind that it factors current social distancing measures into its model and is one of the two models (the Imperial College model being the other) we have based this whole charade off of.
By April 5, the UW model projected New York would need 69,000 beds for COVD-19 patients. Reality? They needed 16,500 beds. The model also projected that New York would need more than 12,000 ICU beds to handle the influx of COVID-19 patients. Reality? They needed just over 4,000.
Let's open this bitch back up before the lock down starts to kill more people than this nothingburger.
LINK
By April 5, the UW model projected New York would need 69,000 beds for COVD-19 patients. Reality? They needed 16,500 beds. The model also projected that New York would need more than 12,000 ICU beds to handle the influx of COVID-19 patients. Reality? They needed just over 4,000.
Let's open this bitch back up before the lock down starts to kill more people than this nothingburger.
LINK
7
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:18 pm to RollTide1987
I wonder why you didn't mention deaths?
UW never changed the bed/ICU models from initial projections three weeks ago. They have been updating the model based on fatality reports and today's numbers fell within the range of 535-772 with 594 deaths.
UW never changed the bed/ICU models from initial projections three weeks ago. They have been updating the model based on fatality reports and today's numbers fell within the range of 535-772 with 594 deaths.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:22 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
594 deaths.
And what portion of these were from comorbidity ?
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:29 pm to 91TIGER
quote:
594 deaths.
And what portion of these were from comorbidity ?
What does it matter? That is not how models work.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:36 pm to RollTide1987
Isn't this the model that has been predicting 5,000+ deaths for Alabama? The hysterical sky screamers have been waving it around asserting that the state faces impending disaster. I am no expert on these types of models, but am reasonably well informed on what is going on here, and I have no idea how we are going to reach those kinds of numbers.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:41 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
I wonder why you didn't mention deaths?
Deaths also lag about 2 weeks behind the cases
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:41 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
Isn't this the model that has been predicting 5,000+ deaths for Alabama?
The model for deaths in Alabama is an enormous range because it was one of the last states to see COVID spread and implement lockdown restrictions.
As of April 1st, the total range of deaths in Alabama is 849 to 9,624.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:45 pm to 91TIGER
quote:
And what portion of these were from comorbidity ?
Weird how so many people with comorbidities who would not have otherwise died at this time are suddenly dying while positive for covid-19.
It's almost as if it's a major contributing factor to their deaths at this time. Huh.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:46 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
As of April 1st, the total range of deaths in Alabama is 849 to 9,624.
9,624 would be like 1 in every 500 state residents dead. How could they ever arrive at such a number? Not trying to minimize this, but Alabama's number won't be anywhere close to the upper end of that range.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:48 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
models work.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:49 pm to BamaAtl
quote:
Weird how so many people with comorbidities who would not have otherwise died at this time are suddenly dying while positive for covid-19.
It's almost as if it's a major contributing factor to their deaths at this time. Huh.
There’s decades of research that indicate morbid obesity shortens life expectancy by approximately 20 years.
No one bats an eye when the 52 year old with a BMI of 38 dies of heart failure. But when they die of COVID we need to panic.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:50 pm to Golfer
Shhhh...they need to keep their agenda going on this board!
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:51 pm to RollTide1987
They cancel school now for severe thunderstorms. What do we really expect when we put Nancy in charge?
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:56 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
The model for deaths in Alabama is an enormous range because it was one of the last states to see COVID spread and implement lockdown restrictions.
That’s not why. Prior to last Tuesday Alabama had was projected to have around 2K deaths. Not anywhere close to the 9600 projected 2 days later. At the time Mississippi hadn’t implemented a lockdown either yet there was a gigantic disparity between the 2 states.
Missouri and South Carolina have yet to implement a stay at home order and had their 1st cases a few days before Alabama. Yet both don’t have near (4K less) the projected deaths or nearly a wide of range.
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 1:08 pm
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:56 pm to RollTide1987
So you are upset that the models that said there would be more cases of the virus and more death are wrong? So you want the worst case models to be right? Why?
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:58 pm to Golfer
quote:
No one bats an eye when the 52 year old with a BMI of 38 dies of heart failure. But when they die of COVID we need to panic.
Heart failure and what we're seeing with covid patients who expire are drastically different universes. The comorbidity likely hastened them along, or put them at more risk, but there is absolutely no doubt that the reason these patients die on that day in that manner is because of a viral infection.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:00 pm to BamaAtl
quote:
but there is absolutely no doubt that the reason these patients die on that day in that manner is because of a viral infection.
Not what that kid’s dad said.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:28 pm to BamaAtl
quote:
Heart failure and what we're seeing with covid patients who expire are drastically different universes.
Not when we’re talking about people with a drastically shortened life expectancy such as morbid obesity.
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 1:29 pm
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:32 pm to Golfer
quote:
Not when we’re talking about people with a drastically shortened life expectancy such as morbid obesity.
Exactly when we're talking about those people.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:36 pm to RollTide1987
This is what happens when you let climate change scientists make your pandemic models.
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