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re: Is anyone suggesting the COVID19 "uptick" as things open up was unexpected?
Posted on 6/24/20 at 2:54 pm to Sneaky__Sally
Posted on 6/24/20 at 2:54 pm to Sneaky__Sally
quote:
That wasn't a full shutdown - we kind of half assed it. Hard shut down for a short period of time would have been much better in the long run than what we did IMO.
I don't disagree but it's too late for that now
1
Posted on 6/24/20 at 2:54 pm to Powerman
quote:
quote:
That wasn't a full shutdown - we kind of half assed it. Hard shut down for a short period of time would have been much better in the long run than what we did IMO.
I don't disagree but it's too late for that now
Oh, no doubt
Posted on 6/24/20 at 2:56 pm to The Boat
quote:
Hospitals aren’t going to be overwhelmed now.
The thing is, some are.
But it’s not because actual total hospital capacity < total hospital capacity needed. It’s because hospitals A and B each have 500 beds and 400 people go to hospital A while 20 people go to hospital B.
If you only look at hospital A, you see it at 80% capacity and shite yourself because you don’t know hospital B is at 4% capacity.
This is becoming an issue in Texas where city hospitals are busy as shite and suburban hospitals have the room, but no one is communicating it.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 2:56 pm to Sneaky__Sally
quote:
Believe what? that a shorter, but more intense shutdown would have been better from both a healthcare and long term economic perspective?
Yes. A "hard shut down" that lasts more than a week would have crippled the economy just as badly as what we saw, and the healthcare system didn't need a hard shutdown at all.
The only thing that would have done is push back the initial surge of cases, which is the same effect as not having a shutdown.
Hindsight is 20/20, but 99% of the country didn't need a shutdown at all.
This post was edited on 6/24/20 at 2:59 pm
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:00 pm to TH03
Deaths have not followed the upticks in open states meaning it is likely we are lot better at handling this virus and whatever form it is in is weaker than what came through New Orleans and New York in March / April. Harris County is in panic mode if you read the news but total deaths is still under 400.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:02 pm to NIH
quote:
Deaths have not followed the upticks in open states meaning it is likely we are lot better at handling this virus and whatever form it is in is weaker than what came through New Orleans and New York in March / April. Harris County is in panic mode if you read the news but total deaths is still under 400.
probably more because younger people are making up a larger % of the new cases than a weaker virus
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:02 pm to Salmon
That’s true too. Which makes the panic all the more ridiculous.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:03 pm to RB10
economy would have recovered better IMO, would have needed the relief / stimulus packages to be more coherent and directed - but in that scenario a "v shaped recovery" is actually a possibility.
People are kidding themselves if they think the economy is going to be back to normal by the end of the year. Now a large portion of people may not be willing or confident enough to get out and partake in the economy even once everything does open up. Domestic travel is going to remain very heavily impacted, questions about large events still hang in the air, etc. Unemployment is going to stabilize by the end of the year in the high single digits, if not at 10%+.
Hindsight is 20/20 but that kind of long term impact could have potentially been avoided with a different containment strategy - particularly if we had been more pro-active in february tracking the spread, etc. - but even if the early march timing of the lockdown had remained the same. I think hard lockdown of a shorter timeframe would have been better long term.
ETA: I disagree with proper plans in place, it would have just shifted the initial rise in cases. If we contained it in a hard shutdown and got adequate testing protocols in place for re-opening, local tracking and containment would have been a possibility. This is all conjecture and doesn't really matter at this point though.
People are kidding themselves if they think the economy is going to be back to normal by the end of the year. Now a large portion of people may not be willing or confident enough to get out and partake in the economy even once everything does open up. Domestic travel is going to remain very heavily impacted, questions about large events still hang in the air, etc. Unemployment is going to stabilize by the end of the year in the high single digits, if not at 10%+.
Hindsight is 20/20 but that kind of long term impact could have potentially been avoided with a different containment strategy - particularly if we had been more pro-active in february tracking the spread, etc. - but even if the early march timing of the lockdown had remained the same. I think hard lockdown of a shorter timeframe would have been better long term.
ETA: I disagree with proper plans in place, it would have just shifted the initial rise in cases. If we contained it in a hard shutdown and got adequate testing protocols in place for re-opening, local tracking and containment would have been a possibility. This is all conjecture and doesn't really matter at this point though.
This post was edited on 6/24/20 at 3:05 pm
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:04 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
It's all so confusing.
Yes, if you believe these actions are being taken under the auspices of "public health/safety". They're not. The decisions now (and they have been for a while) are being made for political expediency PERIOD! Logic has no place in that discussion. The "facts" are manipulated to meet the goals. Remember when the logic behind the lockdown was only to ensure the hospitals weren't overwhelmed? Maybe you forgot because we haven't seen our Facebook pages flooded with "flatten the curve" memes in quite a while now.
That we are now experiencing panic of a "second wave" is as predictable as the sun rising in the East. Did you really think the politicians/media were just going to let this gross overreaction fade into the sunset?
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:04 pm to NIH
Travis County is only at 114 deaths, but you’d think it’s at 114k reading reddit.
0 deaths under 30
72 deaths over 70
89 deaths over 60
0 deaths under 30
72 deaths over 70
89 deaths over 60
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:06 pm to Sneaky__Sally
quote:
Hindsight is 20/20 but that kind of long term impact could have potentially been avoided with a different containment strategy
quote:
would have needed the relief / stimulus packages to be more coherent and directed
What makes you think anything the government decided to do would have been more coordinated? You're operating under the assumption that each state government would have had all of it's ducks in a row and set off a hard shut down without a hitch. The likelihood of this happening is practically zero.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:07 pm to Salmon
quote:
probably more because younger people are making up a larger % of the new cases than a weaker virus
Yep which highlights the inaccuracies of applying prior hospitalization/death rates to today’s case data.
If younger/healthy people are getting it now and it record numbers, we can expect fewer deaths and more recoveries, not more deaths like these fear mongerers predict.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:13 pm to TH03
If it just saves one life!
This whole thing is a good reminder that most Americans have the economic sense of a toddler. Most businesses that barely made it through the first shutdown would throw in the towel within a week of a second shutdown. Consumer confidence would crash. What biz owners would trust the government after a second shutdown?
This whole thing is a good reminder that most Americans have the economic sense of a toddler. Most businesses that barely made it through the first shutdown would throw in the towel within a week of a second shutdown. Consumer confidence would crash. What biz owners would trust the government after a second shutdown?
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:15 pm to Y.A. Tittle
This was my main concern with the shutdown.
I’ve said from the beginning that it’s ridiculous that people think shutting down will somehow defeat the virus.
It wasn’t going to do anything other than delay the inevitable.
People need to be responsible for themselves. If you’re old af or sick or have destroyed your body with poor decisions or have terrible genetics, keep yourself safe and stay home. Do whatever you can to stay safe. As long as hospitals can handle the capacity, there’s no reason to halt everyone’s lives.
I’ve said from the beginning that it’s ridiculous that people think shutting down will somehow defeat the virus.
It wasn’t going to do anything other than delay the inevitable.
People need to be responsible for themselves. If you’re old af or sick or have destroyed your body with poor decisions or have terrible genetics, keep yourself safe and stay home. Do whatever you can to stay safe. As long as hospitals can handle the capacity, there’s no reason to halt everyone’s lives.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:15 pm to Y.A. Tittle
How quickly we forget "flattening the curve"
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:19 pm to Y.A. Tittle
I’m on vacation in south Florida and can tell you that I don’t give a damn about Corona virus. And neither does anyone else around here from the looks of it.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:21 pm to Y.A. Tittle
I’m waiting for the “uptick” to be linked to the thousands of young people that rioted throughout the country for the last 3wks like the pool party in the Ozarks on Memorial was blamed for the “future uptick” that never occurred. I guess I’ll be waiting on my death bed for that to occur.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:32 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
This post was edited on 9/24/20 at 9:16 pm
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:33 pm to TxTiger82
Are you staying inside?
Posted on 6/24/20 at 3:34 pm to Sneaky__Sally
quote:
Domestic travel is going to remain very heavily impacted
I took a super cheap cross-country trip recently because of this. Prices are low, low, low.
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