- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Interesting antibody test update: Does social distancing matter?
Posted on 5/13/20 at 5:43 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Posted on 5/13/20 at 5:43 pm to WaWaWeeWa
The number is much higher than 10% in Orleans and Jefferson. I had understood that they believe that 8% is the state wide number. Would be reasonable to assume that the number is lower in most of the rural parishes.
0
Posted on 5/13/20 at 5:43 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Also, keep in mind these are results STATEWIDE Nola area had a far higher infection rate than 8%
Ahhh that changes things.
Do you have the Orleans data?
Also keep in mind it takes at least 2 weeks to develop antibodies, that should offset any lag in death as an argument.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 5:47 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
It puts the Infection mortality rate at 1%, higher than expected.
If we just combine Orleans parish (400k) and Jefferson (400k) and assume 10% infection rate, that’s 80,000 infections.
Those parishes combined have 800 deaths.
Testing was throughout most of Louisiana. 4million × 10% is 400,000. 2400 cases is .6% mortality rate.
In line with nearly all studies. .6% to
.3% mortality depending on health of the population.
1% mortality for people a comorbidity, .1% for healthy people.
This post was edited on 5/13/20 at 5:53 pm
Posted on 5/13/20 at 5:55 pm to Shaun176
quote:
Testing was throughout most of Louisiana. 4million × 10% is 400,000. 2400 cases is .6% mortality rate.
I agree. I think it may even be slightly less. The general population data they are about to collect will be even more accurate.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 5:56 pm to Shaun176
quote:
1% mortality for people a comorbidity, .1% for healthy people.
A helluva important stat, if true.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 6:03 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
Is nobody going to point out how he rounded the population down but rounded the deaths up
He rounded the population way way up. Unless the test in question is diiferent than the one Oschner has been advertising. Only Orleans an JP residents were eligible.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 6:17 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:becuase we have tested across the entire state....
Just curious how they are extrapolating that to 8% of the state. Seems like that’s generous considering that area was the hotspot and these are healthcare workers.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 6:21 pm to lsupride87
Ok good. And I’m sure these aren’t raw numbers, I would imagine this is after adjustment for testing issues and demographics.
Good info. Thanks for the update.
And as part of the presentation you saw they said 0.4% or is that what you personally have calculated?
Good info. Thanks for the update.
And as part of the presentation you saw they said 0.4% or is that what you personally have calculated?
This post was edited on 5/13/20 at 6:23 pm
Posted on 5/13/20 at 6:29 pm to lsupride87
Most of the tests are shite and are giving false positive or false negatives.
There are 25 different companies that all have different tests for viral loads (active infection) of covid.
There are 14 different labs doing Antibody testing.
Here are some quotes about anitibody testing:
"The research suggested that of the 14 tests on the market, just three delivered accurate and reliable results, the New York Times reported. And some consumers want answers."
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/coronavirus-antibody-tests-show-conflicting-results
On the active infection side there are serious doubts with many of the 25 different test. Abbott labs new rapid test is especially problematic.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/coronavirus-abbott-labs-rapid-diagnostic-test-nyu
There are 25 different companies that all have different tests for viral loads (active infection) of covid.
There are 14 different labs doing Antibody testing.
Here are some quotes about anitibody testing:
"The research suggested that of the 14 tests on the market, just three delivered accurate and reliable results, the New York Times reported. And some consumers want answers."
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/coronavirus-antibody-tests-show-conflicting-results
On the active infection side there are serious doubts with many of the 25 different test. Abbott labs new rapid test is especially problematic.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/coronavirus-abbott-labs-rapid-diagnostic-test-nyu
Posted on 5/13/20 at 6:39 pm to UAinSOUTHAL
quote:
Most of the tests are shite and are giving false positive or false negatives.
Everyone knows about false positives and negatives. It might seem new to you but it’s epidemiology 101. Pretty much every study adjusts for this and Ochsner is using the most accurate test (Abbott), it’s almost 100%.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 6:39 pm to lsupride87
Because we(I work at the same places as you) actually might be doing social distancing with patients. I can go to rouses and see 600 people In there stacked on top of each other.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 6:44 pm to lsupride87
So the people that have everyday experience with PPE/sanitization/sterilization are better at it than office workers? Who'da thunk it?
Posted on 5/13/20 at 6:44 pm to lsupride87
And if you dig into your stats you will probably find the laboratorians have the lowest rate among the employees. Because they handle patient samples like every one of them have HIV.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 6:57 pm to FAP SAM
quote:I mean the office workers haven’t been going into work at all
So the people that have everyday experience with PPE/sanitization/sterilization are better at it than office workers? Who'da thunk it?
So, those who have been sheltering in place and not going into work at all have a higher infection rate than those who are not only going to work every single day still, but going into work at a hospital with covid patients
That isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement that sheltering in place did a damn thing
Posted on 5/13/20 at 6:59 pm to LEASTBAY
quote:So, like I said, the forced sheltering in place does nothing, it’s the mindfulness of personal responsibility
Because we(I work at the same places as you) actually might be doing social distancing with patients. I can go to rouses and see 600 people In there stacked on top of each other.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 7:00 pm to jchamil
quote:
I'm guessing they have adequate PPE and practice really good hygiene working around corona patients, so basically those things will slightly lower your chances of catching it
So doing these things and not working with positive patients mean you basically have zero chance of getting it?
Posted on 5/13/20 at 7:05 pm to lsunurse
quote:
Also....most nurses I know are really careful outside work. Wearing masks inside stores, social distancing etc.
Maybe now, but not in general. I have first hand experience of them not caring if I wear a "mask".
Posted on 5/13/20 at 7:57 pm to lsupride87
Latoya interpretation:
Shut it down!
Shut it down!
Posted on 5/13/20 at 8:01 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
It means N95 masks work
Are they using N95 masks? I know in the beginning nobody was able to get them. That may not be the case now, but a lot have been using KN95 masks throughout this whole thing.
Posted on 5/14/20 at 12:49 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
quote:
Most of the tests are shite and are giving false positive or false negatives.
Everyone knows about false positives and negatives. It might seem new to you but it’s epidemiology 101. Pretty much every study adjusts for this and Ochsner is using the most accurate test (Abbott), it’s almost 100%.
You didn't read the article. The Abbott test is the one that is having an issue.
Page 3 of 4
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News