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re: IHME model is getting better for the US...stabilizing as we get more and more good data
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:49 am to Pettifogger
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:49 am to Pettifogger
Maybe hospital infrastructure will change. Maybe government will change their response. People are still going to be fat as frick and continue to do what they were doing before this within six months to a year.
0
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:49 am to Salmon
quote:
I'm not the one trying the "gotcha"
quote:
Ok
and if we got better flu data and it showed that only 1/10th of flu deaths are actually flu related?
all the "its just the flu" guys may not like the answer if we got better data on flu deaths
quote:
its also funny how the flu range is 12k - 60k and y'all always seem to use the high range when making these arguments
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:50 am to RB10
You are being inconsistent in your arguments. If that is trying a "gotcha", then so be it.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:52 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Flu numbers aren't really models. They just take every pulmonary related death during a certain time of year and call it flu
The flu crowd also weirdly trusts the CDC's 2019-2020 estimated flu death numbers, yet simultaneously screams that covid has been around since November.
This post-mortem estimates from the CDC and WHO will dwarf the flu and H1N1 estimates.
That 8-18k H1N1 death estimate in the US that people have been talking about since this began is based in part on 1642 deaths from laboratory confirmed H1N1 cases.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:53 am to Salmon
quote:
You are being inconsistent in your arguments. If that is trying a "gotcha", then so be it.
My argument is both are inaccurate estimations based on limited data.
You just don't like how that logic lines up.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:57 am to RB10
quote:
My argument is both are inaccurate estimations based on limited data.
You just don't like how that logic lines up.
No.
You are conveniently using the top range of the flu deaths, while simultaneously criticizing anyone using the top range of the COVID models.
I don't like your logic because it is inconsistent.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:59 am to TheCaterpillar
Can you give a link to the table?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:00 am to xxTIMMYxx
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:01 am to Salmon
quote:
No.
You are conveniently using the top range of the flu deaths, while simultaneously criticizing anyone using the top range of the COVID models.
I don't like your logic because it is inconsistent.
The top range of flu estimates from 2019 and top range of the current Covid model are exactly the same.
Currently, 12k deaths from Covid fall within the estimated 2019 flu death range, which is why I said the "flu death" predictions have been the most accurate.
I'm sorry you don't like it. Truly, I am.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:01 am to Salmon
quote:True, it isn’t your fault when you have bad data, but if you recognize that you have bad data, it is your fault for using it.
not the modelers fault
I run models all day. Sometimes I have really good data and sometimes I have really bad data. Bad data means bad answers. Good data means good answers.
It isn't my fault when I have bad data.
It isn’t as if they didn’t know it was bad data.
That same concept applies to all research.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 10:03 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:04 am to RB10
quote:
The top range of flu estimates from 2019 and top range of the current Covid model are exactly the same.
Link?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:04 am to RB10
quote:
The top range of flu estimates from 2019 and top range of the current Covid model are exactly the same.
actually the top range for COVID is 126,000
quote:
Currently, 12k deaths from Covid fall within the estimated 2019 flu death range, which is why I said the "flu death" predictions have been the most accurate.
3 months compared to a year seems awfully disingenuous, but ok
quote:
I'm sorry you don't like it. Truly, I am.
I have no idea what you think I don't like, other than your inconsistent logic.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:05 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Link?
Already linked ITT. You can go find it if you want.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:06 am to RB10
60k and 60k right?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:06 am to Scruffy
quote:
but if you recognize that you have bad data, it is your fault for using it.
unfortunately, you are not always given the time to wait for better data
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:08 am to Salmon
quote:
actually the top range for COVID is 126,000
Latest model is at 60k with the same social distancing practices through May.
quote:
3 months compared to a year seems awfully disingenuous, but ok
Just using the data we have. Thought you didn't have a problem with that?
quote:
I have no idea what you think I don't like, other than your inconsistent logic.
My logic is this is somewhere between a terrible flu season to slightly worse than a terrible flu season.
That's been the same since the beginning, and it's bearing fairly accurately.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:08 am to TheCaterpillar
The models being so sensitive makes me question why the confidence intervals around them weren't focused on when they initially were giving out the grim extrapolations.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:08 am to Salmon
I mean that 60k was just 80k on Monday and wasn’t it well over 100k last week? Trend is looking good to me. Who knows maybe it’ll be at 40 by next Monday?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:08 am to RB10
quote:
Latest model is at 60k with the same social distancing practices through May.
Link?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:09 am to JohnnyKilroy
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